‎Disney Raises Park Admission Prices‎

You probably saw that $DIS - Disney raised admission prices to $99 at the Magic Kingdom.

Let it rain cash on $DIS

(Long $DIS)

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Disney Raises Park Admission Prices

Brianna Valleskey

Benzinga - Benzinga - ‎Wednesday‎, ‎February‎ ‎26‎, ‎2014

Walt Disney World has raised ticket prices to $99 for a single-day pass to its Magic Kingdom, USA To...

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S&P 500 sets new record close‎‎

The bulls win! New record close on the $SPY. Game over.

Reason du jour?  Janet Yellen!

"U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to a record, as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the central bank may change its strategy for reducing asset purchases should the economy weaken."

In other words, Yellen said the Fed will do whatever it takes to keep stocks up.  Sweet.

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Stocks rise, S&P 500 sets new record close

By Lu Wang and Callie Bost

Bloomberg - Bloomberg - Thu Feb 27 21:15:00 UTC 2014

U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to a record, as Federal Reserve Chair Jane...

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Reasons to be Optimistic About the Economy

Hey, it's not all gloom and doom! I don't know how many viewers Bloomberg has, but here's a video clip saying that we should believe in growth!

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‎GOP tax plan lowers rates‎

The Republicans have a new tax plan! Looks like the usual GOP tax plan: tax cuts! I'm all for it, but what do you REALLY think the chances are of this legislation getting off the ground?

Zero?  Hey, that's what I was going to say!

I think this was a pretty risky proposal In an election year where the Democrats are seemingly on the ropes over Obamacare and sluggish job/wage growth.

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GOP tax plan lowers rates, repeals popular breaks

By Stephen Ohlemacher

Associated Press - Associated Press - ‎Wednesday‎, ‎February‎ ‎26‎, ‎2014

WASHINGTON — A sweeping House Republican plan to overhaul the nation's tax laws would wipe out a sle...

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Stocks on the Move Today

Here are the top 20 stocks moving up and down today.  First, the winners!

 

Hope you had all of those in the portfolio today.  The losers included First Solar.  The solar stocks, er uh, hmm…  And Pegasystems, which offers BPM software for those of you who are techie geeks and care about that sort of thing 

 

After hours winners included the much hated JC Penny’s and Baidu – on big volume.

After hours sinners included Noodles!  I’ve never been there, but I was talking with a friend about it as NDLS fell 7% after hours, and he said that he didn’t think it was that great.

‎Taco Bell takes aim at McDonald's with breakfast��

$MCD vs. $YUM - Let the breakfast wars between McDonald's and Taco Bell begin!  I could go for a waffle taco about right now.  Colorado Taco Bells near marijuana stores are going to be packed!

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Taco Bell takes aim at McDonald's with breakfast

By Candice Choi

Associated Press - Associated Press - Mon Feb 24 18:00:00 UTC 2014

NEW YORK — Egg McMuffin, meet the Waffle Taco. Taco Bell is readying for the launch of its nation...

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The Bulls Win!

• I saw a great $TWTR tweet “The bulls win. It’s over.” (paraphrasing). And that’s today’s $SPY theme. The market has been a money printing machine of late, for those in the growth names.  About half of the market isn’t participating – but who cares? As  long as you own the ones going up!
• $TRQT and $RFMD merging?  Ah, so that’s why TriQuint Semiconductors was up 26% on 1500% of volume.  And RF Micro Devices up 21% on 900% increase in volume.  How come I never own one of these things? 
• By the way, the SP500 closed one-point below its all time high.  So, the break out and over came back and down today.  But tomorrow is another day.  Maybe “It’s over” tomorrow.
• $HUM – Humana said that the government cuts to Medicare would be less of an impact than expected.  That was good for a 10% pop on 300% increase in volume.
• I’ve mentioned $LTBR – Lightbridge Corporation, a couple of times here and in the podcast.  Ya, up again over 6% on over 2000% average volume.  Yup. 
• So, lots of things up up and away.  That’s what we’d expect with the bulls winning and all.  The top IBD stocks were up nicely today – but there are four more trading days in the week and month, so the reviews will have to wait.
• Except for $JCP and $SHLD, of course.  JC Penny’s and Sears are not getting any love, each down about 7%.  Hey, if nothing else, the parking spaces at the mall near those stores are the least crowded and offer close parking, if one needs to avoid the weather and get in the mall quickly!
• Jim Cramer was talking about $SCTY – Solar City on his show today, but the stock was dropping about 4% afterhours on earnings non-announcements.  It will be interesting to see if it bounces back tomorrow.
• $VRTX – Vertex Pharma also down afterhours.
• Economic news underwhelmed today, but that’s the way the economic news has been going.  Market doesn’t care.  It is amazing when a bull or bear market trends and nothing can impact the trend. 
• Final thought – it wouldn’t surprise me to see the market pullback a little after today before attempting to break out again.  But we are closing in on month end and that could see more support as retail investors throw money into mutual funds with their 401k adds on payday.
• I’m in cash, and probably buying the next dip. BTFD.

Update - The IBD Top 50 Stocks Strategy

Here’s an update on the IBD Top 50 stocks investing strategies vs. $SPY

For the week, the IBD weekly strategy had another great return. Once again, the concentration in a fewer names at the top of the IBD 50 list outperformed a larger set of names.  The top 5 IBD stocks led the top 10, which led the top 25, which led the top 50.  The SP500 didn’t stand a chance this week.   In a market that is going up everyday, I would expect growth stocks to outperform the SP500 (SPY).

So far, so good.  Is the air getting thin up at the top of the list?

The portfolio is sold at the closing price Friday night, and rebalanced into the make-up of the IBD top 50.

For the IBD monthly strategy, the monthly return is equaling the total return, as the portfolio will not rebalance until next Friday at the close.  Just two weeks in, there isn’t much difference between the monthly and weekly strategies.  I expect the differences to show up as the weeks pile up.

The make-up of the monthly strategy will remain the same until the last trading day of the month, February 28th.

You can view the Top 25 holdings at Motif Investing.

None of the above strategies are a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.  These are model portfolios constructed for entertainment only.

This is the IBD portfolio performance for the week and since 2/8/2014.  Each portfolio begins with $10,000 and then invests an equal amount in the top 5, 10, 25 and 50 IBD stocks at the closing prices on Friday for the weekly model, and at the closing prices on the last trading day of the month for the monthly model.  Since IBD changes the make up of their top stocks daily, this will only rebalance on Fridays or end of month.  Daily changes in the IBD 50 or stock rankings are not considered.  Changes in IBD’s overall market views are not considered.  Stop loss orders are not considered. 

Based on a blog entry from Paladin Money.  See Investors Business Daily for more information on the IBD 50.  See Motif Investing for their IBD Top 25 portfolio, and the ability to construct your own portfolio of stocks.

#234: Stock Thoughts, Facebook, Tesla, Lightbridge

listen to ‘#234: Stock Thoughts, Facebook, Tesla, Lightbridge’ on Audioboo

Not Chasing Stocks

I’m not chasing stocks at this point. $SPY

My thought is that this isn’t going to end well. 

Sick today!  BOO!

Update - The IBD Top 50 Stocks Strategy

Here’s an update on the IBD Top 50 stocks investing strategies vs. $SPY

For the week, the IBD weekly strategy had a great return. The week itself was strong, as the market continues to surge ahead.  It’s interesting that the top 5 stocks outperformed the top 10, which outperformed the top 25, which outperformed the top 50.  In a market that is going up everyday, I would expect growth stocks to outperform the SP500 (SPY).

The portfolio is sold at the closing price Friday night, and rebalanced into the make-up of the IBD top 50.

 

 

For the month, the IBD monthly strategy had the same return! That’s because it all started on the same day (2/8) as the weekly strategy. 

This should now change as we head into week 2.

The make-up of the monthly strategy will remain the same until the last trading day of the month, February 28th.

You can view the Top 25 holdings at Motif Investing, but interesting to note the UA was the weak performer in 3 of the 4 IBD strategies.  Perhaps it was the drag of the olympic uniforms!

This is the IBD portfolio performance for the week and since 2/8/2014.  Each portfolio begins with $10,000 and then invests an equal amount in the top 5, 10, 25 and 50 IBD stocks at the closing prices on Friday for the weekly model, and at the closing prices on the last trading day of the month for the monthly model.  Since IBD changes the make up of their top stocks daily, this will only rebalance on Fridays or end of month.  Daily changes in the IBD 50 or stock rankings are not considered.  Changes in IBD’s overall market views are not considered.  Stop loss orders are not considered. 

Based on a blog entry from Paladin Money.  See Investors Business Daily for more information on the IBD 50.  See Motif Investing for their IBD Top 25 portfolio, and the ability to construct your own portfolio of stocks. 

#233: Brief Stock Thoughts

listen to ‘#233: Brief Stock Thoughts’ on Audioboo

Yellen Steady as She Goes

• The market ramped up as Fed Chair Janet Yellen (not pictured) spoke in front of Congress today.
• Wall Street rose for a fourth straight session on Tuesday as Congress agreed to advance legislation extending U.S. borrowing authority and the Federal Reserve's new chief held off from making any changes to its schedule for trimming stimulus.
• Scary chart from 1929 is going viral!  Yes, at some point we will have a real correction, a real bear market, and more real bull markets.  Everything that has happened before will happen again.
• Basically, Yellen continued on course with the Fed tapering of QE, and seemed to promise low rates for a long time.  Folks thought she was dovish.  I think it was status quo, though.
• Olympics… Curling!  Love it.  And the Russian women’s curling team
• After hours roulette:  FEYE – FireEye fell over 7%… CUTR – Cutera up 14%…  Weeeeee!  Guess right?  I didn’t play today. 
• I just  read that bacon sales are at an all time high.  That means buy the drug makers that sell the cholesterol lowering meds, high blood pressure meds, and the diabetes meds…
• I’m 100% in cash, by the way.  I was whipsawed last week.  Sold the bounce the day after the 300 point drop, and remained in cash as we now approach previous highs.
• Questions for Yellen included “What about the wealth gap?”  She should have said, “Buy the dips!”
• Audioboos and podcasts coming…  Really.

Investing in IBD Top 50 Stocks

I have always wondered how the IBD 50 does over the long term.  It seems to be an index of stocks that have already made their move, or at least closer to their tops than their bottoms.  The list changes from day to day, based on IBD’s criteria.  How does investing in them work as an ongoing strategy?

I found an article at Paladin Money that reviewed the results of investing in the top 10 IBD stocks (of their top 50) and rebalancing monthly and then weekly, to whatever the changes are at the end of the period.  For example, at the close on the last trading day of the month or at the close on Friday, rebalance equally into the top 10 IBD stocks.

Talk about the strength of the bull market in 2013!  The portfolio has a gain of 55.4% for the year.  This compares to our weekly model which had a gain of 67% last Friday night. 

That’s pretty good, right? Of course, the rebalancing weekly or monthly is the tricky part due to commissions and taxes.  The taxes can be postponed via implementing this strategy in an IRA, but there are still commissions for every stock trade.

Motif Investing allows investors to construct a portfolio of up to 30 stocks, and then a single trade into the entire portfolio costs $9.95 and is automatically allocated per your portfolio.  One could implement this strategy of the Top 10 IBD stocks using Motif.  Motif also has the top IDB Top 25 portfolio already available right now, with an option to rebalance weekly.  (I believe their is a fee for rebalancing, equal to the trade price).

For fun, I constructed the IBD top 5, 10, 25 and 50 stocks in a Google Docs spreadsheet as of today (02/08/2014) and will track the strategy of rebalancing weekly and monthly.  For fun.  LOL.  So every week, I will post something like this to check performance and to provide pithy comments:

For the week, the IBD Weekly Strategy had a … [comments]

The IBD Monthly Strategy had a … [comments]

This is the IBD portfolio performance for the week and since 2/8/2014.  Each portfolio begins with $10,000 and then invests an equal amount in the top 5, 10, 25 and 50 IBD stocks at the closing prices on Friday for the weekly model, and at the closing prices on the last trading day of the month for the monthly model.  Since IBD changes the make up of their top stocks daily, this will only rebalance on Fridays or end of month.  Daily changes in the IBD 50 or stock rankings are not considered.  Changes in IBD’s overall market views are not considered.  Stop loss orders are not considered. 

Based on a blog entry from Paladin Money.  See Investors Business Daily for more information on the IBD 50.  See Motif Investing for their IBD Top 25 portfolio, and the ability to construct your own portfolio of stocks. 

Something like that.  You get the idea. 

Going forward, I will also talk about this strategy on the Audioboos / Podcasts.

No Changes, But Nice Reversal

I didn’t change from 100% cash, but was tempted to play earnings roulette today – but didn’t.  $TWTR crashed while $GMCR ripped.  I probably would have gambled on Twitter’s earnings, but didn’t that seem a popular bet heading towards today?

I think the big story today was that stocks looked bad, and then the Fed decided to speak up and then prices ramped up.

Being patient…

Back in Cash

Sold the rip. Back to 100% cash. Feel like this time is different than the 2013 pullbacks.  

I was wrong in 2013. There is that. 

But sold the winners and cashed in. Now will take a deep breath.  I do think the year will be a winner, and being long now will end up positive by year end. But I'm trying to be nimble. (Again, that didn't work for me in 2013).

Love the earnings rips on some of the names.  I had some ... Wish I had owned them all!

Bear Market?

Wow. What a market set off! $SPY

This one feels bad.  It feels different.  And it’s a non-presidential election year, so this kind of thing is supposed to happen.  But, it just feels horrible.  Yet, it’s just a bit more of a selloff than we saw a couple of times in 2013.

I’m around 70% long.  Debating on selling (if we ever have an up day again), selling (no matter if we ever have an up day again or not), or holding on and turning off the TV and finance websites and gear up for baseball season.

Ok..  Well, I am sitting on some nice winners so all is not quite lost yet.  I am leaning towards booking the gains and sitting ahead of the market so far in 2014, looking for signs of a bottom rather than this high-volume selling nonsense.

Yikes!

Hope this finds you well.  All is not lost.  The market is open again tomorrow.

Sentiment: Bears Outnumber Bulls​

Everyone says "too many bulls." Not anymore! $SPY

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Bearish sentiment rose back above its historical average, nearly hitting a four-month high in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. This increase in pessimism, combined with a drop in optimism, has caused bears to outnumber bulls for the first time since August 22, 2013. 

http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/aaii-sentiment-survey-bears-outnumber-bulls-for-first-time-since-august%e2%80%8b.html/

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How Bad is this Super Bowl?

• How bad is this super bowl? I’m on the web and blogging.
• Asian markets down as I type. Asian shares were slowly giving ground on Monday as strains in emerging markets show little sign of abating, while growing pressure for another policy easing in Europe shoved the euro to 10-week lows.
• US futures were up, but fading as I type.
• First year in at least 20 that I haven’t thrown a super bowl party, or been to one.
• Monday earnings and active stocks:  Yum Brands Inc., Take-Two Interactive Software Inc., Anadarko Petroleum Corp. and Sysco Corp. are among the stocks expected to see active trading during Monday’s session.
• Earnings season is about half over.  I’ve been playing some earnings, which is something everyone knows you’re not supposed to do.
• Like taking an offensive team over a defensive team in the super bowl.
• Man, I missed it.  Bet on emotion and took Peyton.  Even though we all know defensive teams usually win, right?
• More on the January Indicator from Mark Hulbert.