Gloomy Tuesday

• After the SP500 fell 3.5% last week, the cries that the "bear market rally" is over and that we've resumed the bear market. I'm not of that belief, but it is extremely convincing with the gloom and doom in the headlines.  Who knows, maybe I'll end up being the last bull to capitulate; and that'll be The Bottom!
• Today, news is out that home price declines accelerated in March.  The pace of home price declines accelerated in March and there are no hints that the decline might be ending soon, economists said.  Home prices in 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas have dropped a record 14.4% in the past year, Standard & Poor's said Tuesday.
• I filled up with premium this weekend for $4.39.   I only fill up twice a month, so it doesn't impact me too much.  But boy, folks are sure vocal about it.  Across the gasoline island, everyone was having a conversation about it and how pretty soon it'll be $5 and $6.
• These are the two things that are most visiable to folks.  They're underwater on their homes and gas prices are up.  What'd I hear on the radio this morning?  I think that 1/3rd of car purchase in past years were from home equity.  Scratch that!
• Translation?  No matter what happens to the economy, the mood is dour and the Republicans are going to get slaughtered in November.  It doesn't matter who the Democrats put up.  It's going to be a cake walk.
• Good news?  Hybrid sales are soaring!  These folks will be cutting their fuel use by more than 50% if they go from 20 mpg to over 40 mpg and drive the same routes.  Congrats!  We should all do this.  Imagine the impact to our oil consumption.
• Today the pic is of Laker Girl Allison!

Thanks, Troops!

Thanks to our soldiers and their families.

My Dad was a Marine.  As a kid, I took his corporal stripes and had my Mom sew them to my jackets, sweatshirts, and windbreakers.  I mentioned in that blog entry about having the old film converted to DVD.  Watching the DVD, I'm walking around in an LA Dodgers windbreaker, with corporal stripes on the sleeves. 

At one time in my life, I thought looking back on that, that it was pretty silly.  But now?  I think at 11 years old I had the right idea.

Thanks, Dad.  And thanks to all of your friends who stood by your side.

Dear Obama; Dear McCain

Dear President-elect (whoever you are),

I think the government should make the interest people pay on their loans tax deductable for cars that get over 40 mpg tax.

Of the 21 million barrels of oil a day we use, 13 million is imported. People could choose to declare war on OPEC by cutting their fuel use by 50%. The simple way to do this is make sure the next car gets twice the mileage as their current vehicle. In addition to ridesharing, mass transit, combining trips, etc. Get the 50% less use by combining these sorts of things. And let the government pitch in with tax policy that encourages car buyers to consider the 40 mpg cars or better.

Mint Julep Friday!

The market selling off yet again.  Normally, I'd expect Friday to move in the opposite direction of the weekly trend.  But watching The Oil Channel (CNBC), there seems to be a sense that the Sell in May effect is going on, and investors would rather be on vacation.  Who can blame them?  The market has given back a lot this week. 

I think this week's catalyst had to be the FOMC comments on negative GDP for the first half of 2008, even though we didn't even have in the first quarter, and their comments on the threat of inflation, also nowhere in the numbers.  At this time, I expect the market rally to continue once everyone realizes that the Fed is wrong and that 2nd half 2008 and then 2009's growth will be stronger.

Pass me a mint julep and some rose-colored sunglasses!

That's Los Angeles Laker girl Vivian!

Yingli and Yangli

• The problem with bringing my lunch to work? It's 10:15, and I've already mowed down the cheese puffs.
• My dumb stock buy this month?  Yingli Green Energy (YGE).  It made my list a few weeks ago. I was waiting for a pullback in the stock, got it, and went in.  Had an early bump, but I'm near flat on it.  The volume is all wrong.  The earnings report was sold, even though it was pretty good.  Hasn't hit my stop yet.  Not a big position.  Closing in on the 50dma.
• First time jobless claims drop.  Good.
• At least Yahoo Finance (briefing.com) is honest today:  Stocks took a dip all the way into negative territory without any clear driving force, but have made their way back into positive ground.  In otherwords, stocks seem to be meandering around and we have no idea why.

Oopsie Randomosity

Market Thoughts

• A mea culpa for not following the sell signals from the Black Box at the end of last week.  I also complained about the lack of volume in the buying, and we sure saw it come in today on the selling. 
• I think we can say that there were signs that the rally was tired.  I'm hearing folks quick to jump on the bear market wagon.  Lets not go there just yet.  We have given up about four weeks worth of gains in just two days.  It's like the last month just didn't happen.
• I'm remaining long here, aware that we have seasonal patterns (sell in May) to face.   No, one can't time the market with a calendar, but combined with other things that are going on I think it can help.
• And I'm also aware that moves against the trend can be sharp, volatile, and stomach churning, only to seem the trend resume.  So lets see what the bulls have in the tank here and if they can resume the rally.

Political Thoughts

• You know, I can get caught up in mudslinging and the frustration of politics.  The post a few ago on oil (OPEC) was one such thing.  If the number one issue for people is the economy, right now it's because of energy. 
• Meanwhile, politicians rarely seem to mention it.  The news headlines are more concerned if Obama is a Muslim or if McCain is a doddering 72-yr old geezer.  This is the time of year where we bring out abortion, flag burning, gay marriage, and school prayer.  It's all rather ridiculous.
• I'd love to see a politician of either party just run on one issue:  Energy.  He or she could announce, "If you elect me it's going to be status quo on everything except energy.  We're going to engage in an effort to restore our energy infrastructure and end our reliance on countries run by crazy dictators and regimes who are hostile to the United States."
• And that's it.  Put school prayer and flag burning on the back burner for 8 years.  I think those can wait.

Around the Dial

• Okay, I watched American Idol last night.  It took me about 8 minutes.  DVR, baby.  I listened to about 30 seconds of David Archuleta.  I think he's really boring and every song sounds the same, but he can sing.  I'd never buy a CD of his crooning, just not my thing.  I prefer David Cooke's singing, because he can do different styles.  He makes even boring songs sound good.
• Kristi Yamaguchi takes Dancing with the Stars.  She was the best by far.

Blog Shots

• From Adam Warner, What Can Big Brown do for You?  War Emblem's sexual preference and more!
• Bill Rempel on SP500 Earnings Ex-What?
• Bob McTeer's thoughts on energy.   LOL.
• Econbrowser on Oil Price Fundamentals.

FOMC Bathtub Cheese

Stock market tanking after the FOMC release:

At its April 30 meeting the FOMC decided to cut the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 2.00%, in what it called a "close call."  The Fed expects unemployment will "increase significantly," raising its 2008 forecast to 5.6% from 5.25%. In addition, many officials forecast negative GDP growth in the first half, and the Fed cut its 2008 GDP growth forecast to between 0.3% and 1.2% from between 1.3% and 2.0%. However, inflation risks have increased, with the Fed raising its core-inflation forecast to between 2.2% and 2.4% from between 2.0% and 2.2%. Dallas Fed President Fisher and Philadelphia Fed President Plosser dissented against the rate cut on inflation concerns.

Again, worried about the inflation gremlins that don't show up in any official release numbers and seem to be only cooked up by inflation conspiracy theorists and those who sell black market bathtub cheese.  They forecast negative GDP growth for the first half, when the first quarter was .6% and likely to be revised upward to 1%.  And in the second quarter, folks are rushing out with their rebate checks to Best Buy, Costco and the Cheesecake Factory. 

I'm not buying the gloom and doom or the bathtub cheese.

How to Declare War on OPEC (and Win!)

President George Bush went to Saudi Arabia last week to beg for oil. "Please pump more oil for us.  Pretty please, with a cherry on top."  He was laughed out of town.  Our next President, be it Obama, McCain, or Nader, will be put in the same position of begging for oil.  Am I the only one who thinks that this is ridiculous?

Lets face it, the politicians in the United States have failed us.  There is no drive to drill for more domestic oil offshore, inland, or in ANWR.  Producing ethanol has been a disaster.  We need more nuclear power plants to think about electric cars.  We could generate synthetic fuel from coal, but that hasn't been in the news headlines, either.  Our leaders seem content to let us pay more for oil and spout drivel about some future technologies that don't exist at this time.  It's time for us to forget about our self-serving elected officials, grab our pitchforks, and march on OPEC ourselves.

The easiest way to declare war on OPEC and win is to cut gasoline consumption by 50% or more.  The United States uses approximately 21 million barrels of oil a day.  We import 13 million barrels of that, and domestically produce 8 million.  If we can cut our oil consumption, we can decrease the amount of oil we import, especially from those countries who are hostile towards us.  Imagine the side benefits of not sending money to countries who fund terrorism!

Each of us needs to play a roll.  This is a war we can win without firing a single shot.  If we fill up our tanks four times a month, we need to figure out a way to get that number down to two times a month.  This means a more fuel efficient car, less driving, carpooling/ridesharing, utilizing mass transit, working from home, or whatever combination of these things cut our consumption by 50%.

Our politicians aren't going to do this for us.  This war on OPEC has to be fought by each and every one of us as individuals.  We are the Marines here.  Gear up and lets roll!

Marketwatch Flip-Flop

Too late to see both headlines over at Marketwatch now, but the first one was (paraphrasing): Market surges as recession fears dwindle.  The headline after the close was (paraphrasing):  $127 oil stymies bulls.

Uh, okay! 

Lets try to rationalize the Marketwatch flip-flop.  I think we can do it using what we know from my last post.  The buyers were enthusiastic this morning hearing "no recession ever again," and sent stocks higher  But once they heard "free Oreos on the highway," they left their desks and went to pick up some double-stuffs.  Thus, the sellers the only ones left at their trading desks to drive the market down, rationalizing that if folks are spending all their discretionary income on fuel to drive down the highway to pick up free Oreos, they won't be able to shop.

 

Free Oreos on the Highway

"Police say a trailer loaded with 14 tons of double-stuffed Oreos has overturned, spilling the cookies still in their plastic sleeves into the median and roadway. "

...

"Mahoney says no charges have been filed but both lanes of traffic remain closed while authorities remove the cookies."

"Remove?" Hmmm....

From Yahoo Finance:  Stocks continue to sport solid gains as all ten of the major economic sectors are trading in the green. 

Everything green.  Free Oreos on the highway.  Life's good.

Who Needs a Nap?

The stock market is up. I think the blame for that is that everyone is beginning to realize that although the economy has been sluggish, we haven't had a recession and we're not going to in 2008 or 2009.  Anticipating future growth!

I always feel like I need a day off to recover from my days off.  I still have that foggy haze in my head and the body is feeling a little out of sorts.  Back here at the Fun Factory, and I can't even recall what the heck we're working on. 

I think that's the measure on whether or not your vacation was a success or not.  If you come back home and you can't recall what was going on from three days ago, it was a great escape.

The team is quick to update me with what I "missed" on Friday, although to be honest, I'm not sure I missed it.  (h/t Office Space).  Anyways, they're telling me about this meeting and that meeting, repeating hallway conversations, and forwarding me emails.  How come all this happened on Friday when I wasn't around? 

Wait...  Big Boss just came by and said that Friday was very quiet.  Now I'm thinking my team is just snowing me on all their supposed activity.  Ore maybe they're just keeping the big Boss out of the loop and throwing that monkey on my back.

Fremont Street

Giving Fremont Street a tumble. Crowded down here tonight.

Release the Hounds

Greyhounds by the pool most of the day. Getting my drink on as they say. Tons of basebal bets in the queue.

This is the Harrahs piano bar. Good place to hang in between innings...

Uh Oh

ooooh

No Photos Allowed

What?

So the plane sat on the runway for two hours before taking off.

I am at the Orleans. It is almost Miller time.

Stupid Celtics. Took the road team and the points. Doh.