QQQ Double Top?

Double top on $QQQ? Of course kind of a prerequisite on the way to ALL TIME NEW HIGHS at this point, right?

 

Sold Utilities

Sold $XLU – utilities that I bought last week.  Just a trade, not a marriage.

Update:  Added Pic from Amibroker

Folks are Discussing the Apple Stock Split

$AAPL - Apple stock split is coming in June. What are folks thinking today?

VTI Above Triple Top

$VTI - the total stock ETF is just above a triple top.  Charts, trend lines, and moving averages are fun to watch but don't necessarily "mean anything."  Except when they do. Or when they seem to work. Anyway. 

Month end strength is on deck, where folks dollar cost average into their retirement portfolios - mutual funds and such. Do you think people are in the stock market? Do you think that the new highs in the market will lead to renewed Main Street interest in stocks?

There is also the 7-1 stock split in Apple coming up in June.  Since $AAPL is heavily weighted in many index funds and ETFs it could keep the upward momentum going. 

Of course...  At some point maybe the lack of other stocks participating and making new highs will matter!

Market Thoughts

• The stock market enters the last weekend in May at all-time highs! $SPY
• Sell in May and go away or buy in May and go away? I’ve written about the historical trend of the market having a non-presidential election year correction. Haven’t seen that yet this year.  Folks seem quick to get bearish even with a 1% “correction,” but the market hasn’t pulled back much.  Yes, small caps and growth have suffered as money fled into the “safer” stocks until recently.
• Josh Beckett throws a no hitter for the Dodgers yesterday, and Ryu takes a perfect game into the 8th tonight. 
• When I found out that Chipotle uses dark meat chicken - (I’m looking at you, legs and thighs), I stopped going.  $CMG – And then I find out that the white meat goes to Panera!  So will I!
• I am mostly long in my accounts, and still have the position in the utilities. I am underperforming the SP500 this year, as I did last year.
• Thinking out loud, the market is heading into the last week of May which you would think is bullish with the month-end effect.  AAPL splits in June – so I wonder what kind of effect that has in keeping the market propped up, as the stock is heavily weighted in the indexes.
• Memorial Day – One year ago I fractured the sesamoid bones in both feet while on a 2 hour bike ride.  They still hurt. Especially when I do much on my feet.  But no more painkillers. 
• Growth stocks have had a nice couple of weeks.  It seems like folks are getting more bullish as the market goes ever higher, and maybe the appetite for risk is returning.  The VIX remains low.

People Have Stock Market Thoughts

How are people feeling with the stock market at all time highs?

Update – The IBD Top 50 Stocks Strategy

Here is the latest on the IBD 50 stocks investing strategies vs. $SPY

Aha! Another good week for the IBD 50 that reminds us why growth stocks are so popular while the market is advancing.  All of the IBD weekly strategies ending 5/23/2014 outperformed the SP500.  For the week, there were 41 stocks up and 9 stocks down for the IBD 50. 

AFOP led the IBD 50 with a return of 13.7% for the week.  The biggest loser for the IBD 50 was MYGN down 10.3%.

The total return since 2/8/2014 is underperforming the SP500.  While none of the IBD 50 models are outperforming the SP500, the more diversified model (with 50 stocks) is performing better than the less-diversified models. 

The portfolio is sold at the closing price Friday night, and rebalanced into the make-up of the IBD top 50.  Dividends are excluded from total returns.

Trading costs $288.55.

The IBD monthly strategy has edged into the green for the month of May, just as the overall market makes all time highs.

The total returns for the monthly models continue to trail the SP500.  The growth stocks are making a strong move as the month winds down.

GMCR leads the monthly IBD 50 models with a 21.7% return.  On the downside, MYGN has fallen 21.3%.

For the month of May, the IBD 50 has 34 gainers and 16 losers. 

The upcoming week will conclude the month of May, and the models will rebalance into the latest top IBD 50 stocks.

Trading costs $29.85.

As I have been reading reviews of investing and rebalancing into model portfolios, the trading costs of rebalancing weekly or monthly is often discussed.  Going forward, I will list the “in and out” rebalancing costs for each strategy.  I will assume a $9.95 cost to sell last week’s or last month’s portfolio, and $9.95 to buy the new weekly or monthly portfolio.  (Imagine the costs of doing this with individual stocks, compared to using Motif.  Note that Motif limits the size of portfolios to 30 stocks).

The Top 25 holdings are listed at at Motif Investing.  (A check as of 3/31/2014 shows that the ability to view all holdings is limited to Motif members and IBD subscribers).

None of the above strategies are a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.  These are model portfolios constructed for entertainment only.

This is the IBD portfolio performance since 2/8/2014.  Each portfolio begins with $10,000 and then invests an equal amount in the top 5, 10, 25 and 50 IBD stocks at the closing prices on Friday for the weekly model, and at the closing prices on the last trading day of the month for the monthly model.  Since IBD changes the make up of their top stocks daily, this will only rebalance on Fridays or end of month.  It is assumed that trading costs are $9.95 to “buy” a model portfolio, and $9.95 to “sell” a model portfolio.  Thus, each weekly or monthly rebalance out of the previous portfolio and into the new portfolio costs $19.90.  Daily changes in the IBD 50 or stock rankings are not considered.  Changes in IBD’s overall market views are not considered.  Stop loss orders or other market timing strategies are not considered. 

Based on a blog entry from Paladin Money.  See Investors Business Daily for more information on the IBD 50.  See Motif Investing for their IBD Top 25 portfolio, and the ability to construct your own portfolio of stocks.

HP and More Job Cuts

Wow, you'd think $HPQ would run out of jobs to cut. 16k more!

***

HP To Cut An Additional 11k to 16k Jobs As Quarterly Revenue Falls

Share

Shares of computer and printer producerHewlett-Packard took a last-minute dive into negative territory Thursday afternoon after accidentally releasing the first page of its second quarter earnings report a few minutes too early — and not only was the timing of the results unexpected, but so were the company’s sales, which came in under the predictions set forth by Wall Street analysts. And in other less-than-fantastic news, the technology company also said that in an effort to achieve cost savings, it will need to lay off more people than it initially planned.

IPO Frenzy - JD.com

$JD - I was allocated some IPO shares. I'm going to hold on to JD.com for a while and see how it goes. I think this one has some potential.  

Potentially. 

Added Utilities

Utilities look oversold. Adding $XLU ...

The stock market continues going up and down as earnings season winds down. Crazy from day to day!

ATT buying DirecTV

$T buying $DTV: COMTRARIAN THOUGHT: Since nobody seems to like the deal, it will turn out to be one of the most financially lucrative acquisitions ever. 

Market Thoughts

• Looking to raise more cash – maybe roll some into $IDU. The utilities look a little oversold and are sitting near the 50dma. 
• Sell in May still in play.  Many folks are believing that this year will be like last year, and that it won’t work. It didn't work for me last year!
• Been in SoCal attending a graduation at USC.  I still haven’t seen an actual $TSLA on the road, despite folks on twitter telling me they are all over the freeways in LA.  I was on the I5 and the 405 for four days off and on, and didn’t see any. None. Zero. Zip. 
• Toyota - $TOY: Leaving CA for Texas.  Not getting too much play, but remember Nissan did that awhile ago.  So Honda next?  I betcha.
• I think $T buying DirecTV increases revenues.  Not a huge make or break kind of thing.  Just expands their eyeballs.
• I know I keep promising more content.  …
• So I am now actively trading two black boxes.  The one I’ve always used is still in play and still long.  It is a medium to longer term system.  The newest is a shorter term system that I’ve been using for a little while and has been performing well.  The latter gave a buy on the IDU at the close.

Update – The IBD Top 50 Stocks Strategy

Here’s a late update on the IBD Top 50 stocks investing strategies vs. $SPY

Growth returned to the IBD 50 this past week.  All of the IBD weekly strategies ending 5/16/2014 outperformed the SP500.  For the week, there were 32 stocks up and 18 stocks downfor the IBD 50. 

CAR led the IBD 50 with a return of 6.3% for the week.  The biggest loser for the IBD 50 was HOLI, down 5.75%.

The total return since 2/8/2014 is underperforming the SP500.  None of the IBD models has a positive return for 2014.  The more diversified model (with 50 stocks) is performing better than the less-diversified models.  The market index is near an all time high, but the small caps and Nasdaq are lagging. 

The portfolio is sold at the closing price Friday night, and rebalanced into the make-up of the IBD top 50.  Dividends are excluded from total returns.

Trading costs $268.75.

The IBD monthly strategy is mixed for the month of May.  The IBD 5 and 10 models are positive  The more diversified models are negative.

The total returns for the monthly models continue to trail the SP500.  While it may seem as if all hope is lost, the models consist of growth stocks.  If growth stocks ever see cash inflow again, these stocks could once again take the lead.

GMCR leads the monthly IBD 50 models with a 22% return.  On the downside, MTW has fallen 12.6%.

For the month of May, the IBD 50 has 19 gainers and 31 losers. 

Trading costs $29.85.

As I have been reading reviews of investing and rebalancing into model portfolios, the trading costs of rebalancing weekly or monthly is often discussed.  Going forward, I will list the “in and out” rebalancing costs for each strategy.  I will assume a $9.95 cost to sell last week’s or last month’s portfolio, and $9.95 to buy the new weekly or monthly portfolio.  (Imagine the costs of doing this with individual stocks, compared to using Motif.  Note that Motif limits the size of portfolios to 30 stocks).

The Top 25 holdings are listed at at Motif Investing.  (A check as of 3/31/2014 shows that the ability to view all holdings is limited to Motif members and IBD subscribers).

None of the above strategies are a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.  These are model portfolios constructed for entertainment only.

This is the IBD portfolio performance since 2/8/2014.  Each portfolio begins with $10,000 and then invests an equal amount in the top 5, 10, 25 and 50 IBD stocks at the closing prices on Friday for the weekly model, and at the closing prices on the last trading day of the month for the monthly model.  Since IBD changes the make up of their top stocks daily, this will only rebalance on Fridays or end of month.  It is assumed that trading costs are $9.95 to “buy” a model portfolio, and $9.95 to “sell” a model portfolio.  Thus, each weekly or monthly rebalance out of the previous portfolio and into the new portfolio costs $19.90.  Daily changes in the IBD 50 or stock rankings are not considered.  Changes in IBD’s overall market views are not considered.  Stop loss orders or other market timing strategies are not considered. 

Based on a blog entry from Paladin Money.  See Investors Business Daily for more information on the IBD 50.  See Motif Investing for their IBD Top 25 portfolio, and the ability to construct your own portfolio of stocks.

Update – The IBD Top 50 Stocks Strategy

Here’s a late update on the IBD Top 50 stocks investing strategies vs. $SPY

The IBD weekly strategy ending 5/9/2014 underperformed the SP500 – by quite a bit.  For the week, there were 41 stocks down and 9 stocks up for the IBD 50. 

GMCR led the IBD 50 with a return of over 19% for the week.  The biggest loser for the IBD 50 was UBNT, down over 23%.  UBNT reported earnings and the stock sold off hard.  Only one stock in the IBD 5 was positive for the week!

The total return since 2/8/2014 is underperforming the SP500.  None of the IBD models has a positive return for 2014.  The more diversified model (with 50 stocks) is performing better than the less-diversified models.  The market index is near an all time high, but the growth stocks have been sold off in favor of the larger cap Dow names.  (This is not usually a good sign, by the way).

The portfolio is sold at the closing price Friday night, and rebalanced into the make-up of the IBD top 50.  Dividends are excluded from total returns.

Trading costs $248.75.

The IBD monthly strategy kicked off a new month hovering near the returns of the SP500.  The IBD 5 was the only model to have a positive return, while the more diversified IBD 50 came in last. 

The total returns for the monthly models are struggling to match the SP500, and are trailing by quite a bit.  While it may seem as if all hope is lost, the models consist of growth stocks.  If growth stocks ever see cash inflow again, these stocks could once again take the lead.

That’s not happening now!

With just over a week of trading in the books, the IBD 50 has 14 gainers and 36 losers. 

Trading costs $29.85.

As I have been reading reviews of investing and rebalancing into model portfolios, the trading costs of rebalancing weekly or monthly is often discussed.  Going forward, I will list the “in and out” rebalancing costs for each strategy.  I will assume a $9.95 cost to sell last week’s or last month’s portfolio, and $9.95 to buy the new weekly or monthly portfolio.  (Imagine the costs of doing this with individual stocks, compared to using Motif.  Note that Motif limits the size of portfolios to 30 stocks).

The Top 25 holdings are listed at at Motif Investing.  (A check as of 3/31/2014 shows that the ability to view all holdings is limited to Motif members and IBD subscribers).

None of the above strategies are a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.  These are model portfolios constructed for entertainment only.

This is the IBD portfolio performance since 2/8/2014.  Each portfolio begins with $10,000 and then invests an equal amount in the top 5, 10, 25 and 50 IBD stocks at the closing prices on Friday for the weekly model, and at the closing prices on the last trading day of the month for the monthly model.  Since IBD changes the make up of their top stocks daily, this will only rebalance on Fridays or end of month.  It is assumed that trading costs are $9.95 to “buy” a model portfolio, and $9.95 to “sell” a model portfolio.  Thus, each weekly or monthly rebalance out of the previous portfolio and into the new portfolio costs $19.90.  Daily changes in the IBD 50 or stock rankings are not considered.  Changes in IBD’s overall market views are not considered.  Stop loss orders or other market timing strategies are not considered. 

Based on a blog entry from Paladin Money.  See Investors Business Daily for more information on the IBD 50.  See Motif Investing for their IBD Top 25 portfolio, and the ability to construct your own portfolio of stocks.

Market Thoughts ... Uh oh?

Another day where small caps and growth stagger. The market looked on pace for a nice day, and Yelled was doing her best to stoke enthusiasm on easy money.  In the end, growth and small caps gave way.

Sell in May not dead yet.  The market can't seem to rally at all as the SP500 is turned back while on the verge of making a new high.  That being said, the market is very close to a new high.

I plan on lightening up some more.  I've been noodling around here and there and took some profits last week.  I don't have profits in everything I own.  I think the summer correction is more likely with growth, banks and small caps struggling.  Fewer and fewer stocks seem to be holding this thing up.

***

Stocks Fall as Technology Shares Erase Early Rally

By Joseph Ciolli

Bloomberg - Bloomberg - Thu May 8 20:15:00 UTC 2014

Most U.S. stocks fell, after the Standard & Poor's 500 Index climbed to within two points of a closi...

If you have Windows 8, open this in Finance.

Sent from Surface Pro

‎Stocks Slide as Twitter Leads Selloff

Stocks didn't do so well today. Twitter shares tanked on the lock-up expiration.  Growth stocks are still being sold.  The market is still close to all-time highs, but it doesn't feel right does it?  It's tough for the market to go up if financials are sliding, too.

****

Stocks Slide as Twitter Leads Selloff in Technology

By Lu Wang

Bloomberg - Bloomberg - Tue May 6 20:15:00 UTC 2014

U.S. stocks fell for the third time in four days as Twitter (TWTR) Inc. led a selloff in Internet sh...

If you have Windows 8, open this in Finance.

Sent from Surface Pro

‎Disney 2Q earnings beat Street‎

I'm extremely impressed with $DIS - Disney. Today's earnings report was fantasmic, and the company is delivering.  I'm a long term owner and continue to accumulate shares on dips.  Star Wars on deck.  Pixar movies. Marvel movies.  And of course the ESPN cash cow.

Oh, and the company still has theme parks or so I hear.

****

Disney 2Q earnings beat Street, helped by 'Frozen'

Associated Press - Associated Press - Tue May 6 20:30:00 UTC 2014

LOS ANGELES — Disney posted second-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street forecasts, helped by the b...

If you have Windows 8, open this in Finance.

Sent from Surface Pro

Update – The IBD Top 50 Stocks Strategy

Here’s a late update on the IBD Top 50 stocks investing strategies vs. $SPY

The IBD weekly strategy ending 5/2/2014 slightly outperformed the SP500 for the week, with only the IBD 5 having a negative return.  Three of the top five stocks in the IBD 5 had a negative return.  For the week, there were 33 stocks up and 17 stocks down for the IBD 50. 

ANIK was the leading IBD 50 stock for the week, as the biotechs bounced back.  The weakest IBD 50 stock was AMBA.

The total return since 2/8/2014 is underperforming the SP500.  None of the IBD models has a positive return for 2014.  The more diversified model (with 50 stocks) is performing better than the less-diversified models, and is just shy of having a positive return.

The portfolio is sold at the closing price Friday night, and rebalanced into the make-up of the IBD top 50.  Dividends are excluded from total returns.

Trading costs $248.75.

The IBD monthly strategy wrapped up a poor April and rebalanced at the close on 4/30/2014. 

For April, 13 stocks in the IBD 50 had a positive return, while 37 were negative.  MYGN led the IBD 50 for April, returning a whopping 23.5%.  The worst performing IBD 50 stock for April was NQ, down almost 30%.  Again, IBD frequently replaces tickers in the IBD 50, so these models reflect “buy and hold” from 3/31/2014.

But it’s a new month, and with two days in the books the IBD50 Monthly models are beating the SP500.  35 stocks in the IBD 50 have had a positive return, while 15 are losing money.

Trading costs $29.85.

As I have been reading reviews of investing and rebalancing into model portfolios, the trading costs of rebalancing weekly or monthly is often discussed.  Going forward, I will list the “in and out” rebalancing costs for each strategy.  I will assume a $9.95 cost to sell last week’s or last month’s portfolio, and $9.95 to buy the new weekly or monthly portfolio.  (Imagine the costs of doing this with individual stocks, compared to using Motif.  Note that Motif limits the size of portfolios to 30 stocks).

The Top 25 holdings are listed at at Motif Investing.  (A check as of 3/31/2014 shows that the ability to view all holdings is limited to Motif members and IBD subscribers).

None of the above strategies are a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.  These are model portfolios constructed for entertainment only.

This is the IBD portfolio performance since 2/8/2014.  Each portfolio begins with $10,000 and then invests an equal amount in the top 5, 10, 25 and 50 IBD stocks at the closing prices on Friday for the weekly model, and at the closing prices on the last trading day of the month for the monthly model.  Since IBD changes the make up of their top stocks daily, this will only rebalance on Fridays or end of month.  It is assumed that trading costs are $9.95 to “buy” a model portfolio, and $9.95 to “sell” a model portfolio.  Thus, each weekly or monthly rebalance out of the previous portfolio and into the new portfolio costs $19.90.  Daily changes in the IBD 50 or stock rankings are not considered.  Changes in IBD’s overall market views are not considered.  Stop loss orders or other market timing strategies are not considered. 

Based on a blog entry from Paladin Money.  See Investors Business Daily for more information on the IBD 50.  See Motif Investing for their IBD Top 25 portfolio, and the ability to construct your own portfolio of stocks.