September Rally Continues

The market continued to rally today, although on very light volume. Also notice how the semiconductor stocks are not participating.


I go into the week 100% long, but a little concerned that maybe there is some selling ahead of us. And also concerned that my fantasy football teams may be a little underwhelming.

• So I read an ebook this week. Ultimate Dividend something or other via the Kindle app on the iPad. Its from a guy at Morningstar who, ahem, writes their dividend investor newsletter The thought is, that growth stocks underperform quality dividend stocks if you reinvest dividends. Of course we are in a ten year period of that. But it seems to be true over historically longer periods, a long as one follows certain rules. Eh. It was a good read, though. A food for thought kind of book.
• 10yr Treasury drops 2.5% in ten days. Yup. As I have been blogging, it won't end well for those rushing into "safe" treasuries.
• President Obama says voter anger could hurt Democrats in November. Wow. Who knew? That's completely out of left field. I thought those tea parties were all about the Earl Gray.
• So Marshall had a nice lead hosting West Virginia. In the 4th, Marshall up 21-6, fumbles at the WVU 4 yard line. Blah blah blah overtime blah blah blah WVU wins. Go read about it. Amazing, yet predictable, comeback.

Thursday is NFL Night

The market? The market?


The NFL season starts tonight. I'm starting Brett Favre on one of my (way too many) fantasy football teams. I'm leaving work early to pile in a sports bar.

It's all about the NFL today.

Oh, and the market was up. Something about better economic news or pricing in the Koran burning in Florida. There is always a reason.

I'm still 100% invested.

***
By the way, Koran burning? Really? What the heck is up with that? Whatever happened to "teaching the good news" at church? There is enough hate in the world. Didn't Christ teach to love one another?

Tuesday Market Thoughts

Still 100% long. Decided to let last week's buys run. They ran into a wall today. Not feeling too bad about it.


Yes, September is a dismal month historically. But I think I bought near the bottom of the summer's trading range and I'm not going to get too fancy with it. I believe the market is heading higher, and avoiding the brunt of the summer (and election year) correction was the plan.

Something about "trading the plan" comes to mind. But I do feel that reviewing the plan is a good idea. And when we were near the bottom of the trading range last Monday with the gloom very thick, it seemed to me that buying into the Labor Day and monthly strength pattern made sense.

We shall see!

***

Was at a bread and breakfast over the weekend up in the foothills. In the middle of nowhere. Very different.

Pic is of Carolina Marconi.

Investors Flee Stocks for ... The Next Bubble?

This USA Today column caught my eye. Investors believe bonds are safer.


Here.

Near historic low yields.

After a major bond rally.

So, investors got caught up in the 90's stock bubble. "Just click it in there, Mr. B" (remember Ameritrade commercial?). That wiped them out.

Investors got caught up in the housing bubble. "Sure, the mortgage is more than you make in a month, sir. But you can just flip the house in a month or so and make tens of thousands of dollars. No money down. Just sign here. And say, as you were signing, your equity went up $40,000. Would you like to borrow that out via a home equity loan and get a new car or go on vacation? That's your money. Unleash that equity!" Well, yeah.

Now, bonds are safe. Uh huh. And they're probably in bond funds, right? "After all, sir, you need the experience of a Bond manager and diversification. And you know, these short term funds only yield a percent. Let's go out a little longer for more yield."

Well, I think we know what's coming next.

Meandering Market Thursday

The market deviating a bit today from the pre-Labor Day week pattern. $$


Yes the pattern calls for a relatively flat day, but negative. We are drifting a bit higher as I type on my iPhone.

What does it mean?

Well, if you've been reading awhile, you know I pay attention to history. Not that things will repeat exactly, but things do tend to look familiar. The pre-Labor Day week has been up in the past, and we are in the pay day period where money is put in 401k plans.

Everyone was warning about September. But the market took a 7% hit in August. The gloom was thick. So maybe a lot of September was priced in during August.

Another thought is that maybe this is just a sigh or pause in the selling.

Everyone is anticipating a gloomy jobs number tomorrow. It will be interesting to see if that's priced in and the Labor Day pattern overrides the gloom.

Wednesday Randomosity (and Virtual Girlfriends!)

• Market rally was nice today.  If pattern holds, then tomorrow is flat and Friday is a rally.  Wouldn’t that be something if the market did exactly what it has done historically this week?
• The “other” big news today?  Steve Jobs decided Apple would try TV again.  There will be a new Apple TV device that sells for $99, TV shows rent for 99 cents, and movies for $4.99.  You will also be able to stream Netflix movies.
• Will everyone now believe that Apple invented streaming content to your TV? 
• Seems kind of underwhelming.  The Roku box does movies, Amazon streaming, MLB, and Netflix’s instant streaming library.  I’m sure the Apple device will be nice, but who wants to pay $.99 for a TV rental?  That seems lame when you can watch Hulu or record shows on a DVR.  And $4.99 per movie is pricey when Red Box is $1 a night and Netflix streams movies in an all-you-can-view for $9 a month format. 
• How does Apple TV compare to Roku? 
• Outlook dimming for Democrats.  The Cook Political Report, a newsletter that tracks congressional races, now lists 68 Democratic House seats as being at "substantial risk," up from 62 in July and 58 in June, and the group plans to raise the figure to more than 70 this week. Other pollsters and analysts have also increased their list of Democrats they now consider imperiled. By comparison, less than 10 Republican-held seats are thought to be in jeopardy. Before the Republicans start dancing in the end zone and celebrating in the 3rd quarter, they may want to press on and make sure they finish the game.
• In Japan, real men go to a hotel with virtual girlfriends.  After choosing one of three female characters—goodie-goodie Manaka, sassy Rinko or big-sister type Nene—to be a steady girlfriend, the player taps a stylus on the DS touch-screen in order to walk hand-in-hand to school, exchange flirtatious text messages and even meet in the school courtyard for a little afternoon kiss. Using the device's built-in microphone, the player can carry on sweet, albeit mundane, conversations.  Pictured above and here.
• So. Yeah, okay.  Who would you pick? 
• Had my fantasy football draft last night.  Eh.  We shall see.  Nothing is more boring than someone talking their fantasy football lineup.  Except, maybe, talking about their virtual girlfriend.

Wednesday Market Thoughts

Well, yes.   I am happy with the Labor Day trade I made on Monday.  I remain 100% invested in high-beta stocks.

So today will probably qualify as an Investors Business Daily follow through day.  Nice price move.  Nice volume day. 

I don’t know what’s getting the credit.  The ISM number?

"Investor sentiment was so negative that any flicker of light was going to move sentiment with quite a roar, and that's what we got," said Anthony Chan, chief economist at J.P. Morgan Private Wealth Management. "With the purchasing-managers index coming out of two largest economies in the world—China and the U.S.—coming in larger than expected, you can't ignore that this is good news."

…

"If there are markets that are growing, U.S. companies can prosper, regardless of the domestic labor markets in the next few months," said Jerry Webman, chief economist and senior investment officer with OppenheimerFunds.

Dow up 2.5%. 

SP500 up 2.6%

Nasdaq up 3%.

QQQQ up 2.99% and the VB up 3.69%