China's official purchasing managers' index (PMI) eased to 50.4 in January, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday, missing market expectations for a rise and underscoring the fragility of the recovery from the economy's weakest year since 1999.
So, Chinese data is mixed. The US GDP was in the red in the 4th quarter of 2012. Mixed data all around…
But 2013 is shaping up as anything but a typical year, and market bulls depending on this trend do so in the face of a slew of obstacles against such dramatic moves higher.
You know, this is the third trip up over 1500 for the SP500. Maybe too many folks are expecting the secular bear market to continue. The 2000-3 and 2007-9 bear markets crushed a lot of investors, and may be setting the tone here in 2013 as we approach previous market highs.
$$ – Everyone is expecting a market crash these days. Marc Faber at the plate!
“When you print money, the money doesn’t flow evenly into an economy. It flows to some people or to sectors first, and in this case, it flowed into equities, and until about five months ago, bonds,” Faber said. “I believe that markets will punish central banks at some stage through an accident.”
By the way, historically February isn’t a good month after the election year.
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Why not a Bullish call on $AAPL? I suppose we will hear this all the way down - unless something changes. I'm not sure a 128-gig iPad is it, though.
The market looks tired. And acts tired. It is the monthly strength period. The market came in to this week overbought and now looks toppy. It could be the pause that refreshes, but January has been about a 7% rip. I'd expect a little cooling before the next advance.
Anyway, not doing much about it. 100% long. Still.
The first bounce or so was met with optimism, but less and less as the failed attempts went to lower prices and then to a slower-growth earnings report last week.
Along the way, we've heard from folks who think that Apple is a buy and that valuations are ridiculous for the company that has more cash on the sidelines than they know what to do with and continues to sell iPhones and iPads faster than they can make them.
Although, have you noticed how you can buy Apple products almost anywhere these days? Reminds me of Krispy Kreme donuts in their heyday. From exclusivity to every sales counter in town. Those were some tasty donuts in their day.
My thoughts? If AAPL can't rally when everyone is bullish, what happens when the eventual overall market correction happens? I think the company needs a positive surprise, in either growth, innovation, or both.
Still 100% long. Wondering if I should take some chips off the table. I’m thinking the market should be relatively firm through the “monthly strength” period, but I am worried that February might see a pullback.
$AAPL - Apple zombie apocalypse tomorrow in the markets, as the fruit company's earnings disappoints. This is the stock everyone loved. Everyone had to own. When the stock price hit $705, the chants of "$1000" were deafening.
Oopsie. The stock price dropped over $50 in the after hours. Apple Inc missed Wall Street's revenue forecast for the third straight quarter after iPhone sales came in below expectations, fanning fears that its dominance of the mobile industry was slipping.
Well, the upgrade cycle is slowing down. Who needs to go from a 5 mexapixel camera to an 8 megapixel camera? Now that the iPhone has LTE speed, what's the next real catalyst for an upgrade? And say, isn't the Android hardware better? Apple TV is a flop. What's next? The Mac Books are nice and the Mac Airs are nicer, but do you need that AND an iPad, or is the PC world still, uh, PC centric?
Anyway, tomorrow will be interesting. The NDX has been held hostage by Apple this year. Maybe the price drop will result in new weightings for the index, and something more "growthy" will get higher weightings.
$$ - Phil Mickelson complained that he was paying 62% to 63% in taxes, and that he'd have to do something about it. He his since modified his comments, but does he make a point that we should be paying attention to?
Think about it. He's one of the "rich" targeted by the Democrats as those who have somehow unfairly gotten wealthy at the expense of the poor and middle class. The Democrats believe that the government should take more money from Mickelson and his "ilk" via higher taxes to pay for services and benefits for those less fortunate.
That's the popular consensus these days, by the way.
Yet, the reaction from the rich and even upper-middle class have been to try and lower their tax burden by relocating to states that have lower tax burdens, or by changing their behavior.
Meanwhile, Mickelson is taking some heat for speaking against taxes. I liked him better before he tried to restate his comments.
Google and IBM - $GOOG and $IBM, led the tech earnings charge with overall good news. Both stocks moved up nicely after hours, which could mean good things for tomorrow's market open. Of course, if Apple reports that they sold ZERO iPhones in the 4th quarter, Thursday morning will be equally as ugly.
Lots of earnings to go!
Microsoft - $MSFT to launch the Surface Pro tablet in February for $899, and that's without the keyboard. If a few quarters from now, new Kings/SuperSonics owner Steve Ballmer can't figure out why these things aren't selling while iPads are flying off the shelves, maybe it's the price point.
$$ - The bull market that started in March 2009, continues on, making more five-year highs. Watch for more signs of increasing optimism as the market moves higher! They should have been bullish when the SP500 hit 666 in 2009, right? Well over 100% gains since then in the index.
We are in the midst of tech earnings. Google and IBM on deck as I type. Those will definitely be market movers. The NDX has underperformed lately, for what it's worth.
$ATA.PA: Atari US files for bankruptcy. It seems like only yesterday I had the Atari 2600 video game system...
Let’s go back in time, Doc, just five years ago to when the market last saw these kinds of inflows. Heck, it must be a good thing. CNBC was talking about how earnings are looking good and that many investors have been on the sidelines and a little frightened by the market. So it makes sense that it’s time for these investors to get long and ride this market up, right? Let’s take a look at 2008 via a 5-year chart.
And it just so happens that the stock market is closing in on a long-term trading range high of just over 1500 in the S&P 500.
Just sayin’…
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