‎Market Wrap!

The market was pretty dull today.  I suppose most have made their tax moves and reallocations as needed.  Meanwhile, there are New Year's parties and bowl games to prepare for.

I've actually put some cash to work, although still have a cash position.  Instead of an index or ETF, I've been looking at strong stocks that are pulling back near support.  Maybe those will start off the new year with a bang.

Maybe they won't.

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Market Wrap For December 30: Markets Quiet Ahead of New Year's Eve

Jayson Derrick

Benzinga - Benzinga - ‎Monday‎, ‎December‎ ‎30‎, ‎2013

As to be expected for this time of the year, volume was light today with little market moving data o...

If you have Windows 8, open this in Finance.

http://www.bing.com/r/1E/JdzRR?a=0&m=en-us

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Holiday sales rose 3.5 percent

This seems to be relatively good news. Electronics sales about the same, but increases in jewelry and children's apparel…

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Research firm says holiday sales rose 3.5 percent

U.S. retail sales rose 3.5 percent during the holiday season this year, helped by deep discounts at malls and purchases of children's apparel and jewelry, MasterCard Advisors SpendingPulse said.

http://www.columbiatribune.com/business/saturday_business/research-firm-says-holiday-sales-rose-percent/article_76e446a4-6f60-11e3-baba-10604b9f6eda.html

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Are Folks Scared of Stocks?

I can't blame anyone for being scared of stocks after the two market crashes since 2000, in addition to a real estate crash.

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Mom and Pop Wary of Stocks

Alexandra Scaggs

The Wall Street Journal. - The Wall Street Journal. - Fri Dec 27 15:48:09 UTC 2013

With the stock market at an all-time high, experts are puzzled why more money isn't flowing into stock-oriented mutual funds.

If you have Windows 8, open this in The Wall Street Journal.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304753504579282880935397364.html?mod=rss_money_and_investing_total_headlines?a=1&m=en-us

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The MACD Crossover!‎

Hey! There are MACD crossovers to be excited about! 

It's kind of funny, that after such a move in the market, the MACD is finally experiencing a "bullish crossover" in a few of the index trackers as of today.  Yes, it is a lagging indicator, and I don't use it in my Black Box - maybe I should start.

But even with some of the other indicators flashing overbought signals, and I'm looking at you, RSI, that situation can remain in place for quite a while during a bull run.

My guess is that we still will not see much of a selloff the last 2 trading days of 2013.  It would be nice to see some sitting around consolidating ahead of the new year.  Then we can all get excited about the January effect next!

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Market Review For December 27, 2013

Justin Kuepper

Investopedia - Investopedia - ‎Friday‎, ‎December‎ ‎27‎, ‎2013

Major U.S. indices moved higher this week, as higher new home sales, lower jobless claims and positi...

If you have Windows 8, open this in Finance.

http://www.bing.com/r/1E/J1QSv?a=0&m=en-us

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‎1.3 million losing unemployment benefits

Unemployment benefits are running out.  Who wants to bet that Congress fixes this ASAP?  My bet is that the Republicans want to keep the focus on Obamacare and not cutting off funding to those out of work. Stay tuned!

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1.3 million losing unemployment benefits Saturday

By Bradley Klapper

Associated Press - Associated Press - Fri Dec 27 18:30:00 UTC 2013

WASHINGTON — More than 1 million Americans are bracing for a harrowing, post-Christmas jolt as exten...

If you have Windows 8, open this in Finance.

http://www.bing.com/r/1E/J09c9?a=0&m=en-us

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Twitter Rally

That's a triple in $TWTR - Twitter since its IPO.  Just last month.  Just saying.

 

(And I missed it).

Just being honest.

In the Peter Lynch "buy what you know" category, we all know TWTR, right?  It is a huge brand.  At some point, I'd like to own it.  But after a triple in a month?  Eh…

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Twitter Rally Picks Up Steam

Steven Russolillo

The Wall Street Journal. - The Wall Street Journal. - Fri Dec 27 01:13:34 UTC 2013

Twitter shares have nearly tripled since their initial public offering last month, including an almost 5% gain on Thursday, making the microblogging site's IPO one of the best-performing this year.

If you have Windows 8, open this in The Wall Street Journal.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304753504579282832693764394.html?mod=rss_front_total_headlines?a=1&m=en-us

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The Twitter

$TWTR – Twitter stock having a huge move. CNBC debating on the future of the stock.  For anyone who has been around since the 1990’s, we all know how this ends – right?  Maybe “this time is different,” but I can’t help thinking of those internet, tech, and B2B high flying stocks of 1999-2000.

The big difference is that people actually use Twitter.  Some of those late 1990’s stocks didn’t have much of a business model.

That being said, Twitter is free, right?  It has lots of eyeballs on it.  I use it all the time.  But I haven’t spent a dime.  I don’t see any advertisements on it, either.

How does that business model work over the long term?

Money Leaving Bonds for Stocks

Money is leaving bonds and buying stocks.  Not a huge surprise, and this is helping to fuel the stock market advance.  Still, I think this is just part of the late-stage kind of thing that happens in bull markets.  This doesn't mean the stock market rally is over, but just another sign that we're not at the beginning of the bull market.

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U.S.-based bond funds have $8.1 billion outflow in latest week: ICI

Sam Forgione

Reuters - Reuters - ‎Tuesday‎, ‎December‎ ‎24‎, ‎2013

NEW YORK - Investors in U.S.-based mutual funds pulled $8.1 billion out of bond funds in the week en...

If you have Windows 8, open this in Finance.

http://www.bing.com/r/1E/IQUBV?a=0&m=en-us

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‎McDonald's Removes Workers Website‎

Interesting news on $MCD - McDonald's today about low pay and this website called "McResource."

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McDonald's Removes Workers Website

Julie Jargon

The Wall Street Journal. - The Wall Street Journal. - ‎Thursday‎, ‎December‎ ‎26‎, ‎2013

McDonald's Corp. has pulled the plug on its "McResource" website, which has been a target of a group...

If you have Windows 8, open this in Finance.

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‎Jobless Claims in U.S.

More good economic news about jobs - or at least the lack of folks losing their jobs.  Politicians will spin the data every which way, but this is overall good news for the country.  We should all want the country to improve and for people to have the opportunity to move ahead.

No matter how we feel about the party in the White House or Congress.

This is good news.

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Jobless Claims in U.S. Decreased More Than Forecast Last Week

Shobhana Chandra

Bloomberg - Bloomberg - Thu Dec 26 13:45:00 UTC 2013

Fewer Americans than projected filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, indicating th...

If you have Windows 8, open this in Finance.

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Merry Christmas!

I want to wish all of you a very Merry Christmas. Thank you for reading and listening!

Fed's Portfolio Tops $4 Trillion for First Time

Hey! Look at all that money on the Fed's balance sheet! BOOYAH!

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Fed's Portfolio Tops $4 Trillion for First Time

Victoria McGrane

The Wall Street Journal. - The Wall Street Journal. - Fri Dec 20 03:19:46 UTC 2013

The Federal Reserve's holdings of bonds and other assets topped $4 trillion for the first time, a milestone that underscores questions about the efficacy of the central bank's easy-money programs. The Fed's portfolio—including Treasurys, mortgage-backed securities, loans, coins, buildings and other assets—totaled slightly more than $4 trillion as of Dec. 18, up from less than $900 billion before the crisis. A major propellant of this increase has ...

If you have Windows 8, open this in The Wall Street Journal.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304773104579268592155180848.html?mod=rss_front_total_headlines?a=1&m=en-us

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U.S. Existing Home Sales Down 4.3%

Many think that the Fed has been causing asset inflation with the QE stimulus program that has kept rates down and inflated asset prices.  But the long term rates have actually moved up year over year and that is starting to show up in the numbers.  Folks who are used to rock bottom rates are hesitating now that the 30-yr. Mortgage is moving up.

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U.S. Existing Home Sales Down 4.3%

Jeffrey Sparshott

The Wall Street Journal. - The Wall Street Journal. - ‎Thursday‎, ‎December‎ ‎19‎, ‎2013

Sales of previously owned homes slipped to the lowest level in nearly a year in November, signaling that higher mortgage rates are making buyers wary.

If you have Windows 8, open this in The Wall Street Journal.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304367204579268124250009260.html?mod=rss_whats_news?a=1&m=en-us

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‎McDonald's 10 Million Pounds Of Mighty Wings‎‎

They're like "Chicken McNuggets with bones.". $MCD - McDonald's trying to get rid of 10 million pounds of chicken wings, called Mighty Wings.   I think the price point was a little high for the Mighty Wings compared to other things on the menu.  People are at McDonald's for value, and if these were priced at Buffalo Wild Wings prices, why not just go to Buffalo Wild Wings?

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McDonald's Has To Get Rid Of 10 Million Pounds Of Mighty Wings

By Ashley Lutz

Business Insider - Business Insider - Thu Dec 19 16:30:00 UTC 2013

McDonald's has 10 million pounds of Mighty Wings it needs to sell soon. The wings, which repres...

If you have Windows 8, open this in Finance.

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‎Fed Scales Back Stimulus Campaign‎‎

The bottom line is that the stimulus is still chugging along.  The short-term rate is low and there is still $65 billion a month in stimulus.  Let the asset inflation continue…

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Fed Scales Back Stimulus Campaign

BINYAMIN APPELBAUM

The New York Times - The New York Times - Wed Dec 18 19:15:00 UTC 2013

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve said Wednesday that it would reduce its monthly bond-buying campaig...

If you have Windows 8, open this in Finance.

http://www.bing.com/r/1E/GxV3p?a=0&m=en-us

#230: The Fed Tapers and Market Thoughts

listen to ‘#230: The Fed Tapers and Market Thoughts’ on Audioboo

Robust U.S. Recovery Eludes Bernanke

Insert picture of Ben Bernanke as Inspector Cousteau trying to find the Pink Panther - er, economic recovery. Think Pink!  My guess is that the $85B of monthly stimulus isn't reaching Main Street.  We're seeing moves in the stock market and real estate, but something else seems to be hindering economic growth - and specifically, wage growth.

IMHO, of course.

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Robust U.S. Recovery Eludes Fed Chairman

Jon Hilsenrath

The Wall Street Journal. - The Wall Street Journal. - ‎Wednesday‎, ‎December‎ ‎18‎, ‎2013

After facing a financial crisis he didn't see coming, Ben Bernanke helped the U.S. avert a devastating panic but hasn't been able to engineer a robust recovery, even with extraordinary measures.

If you have Windows 8, open this in The Wall Street Journal.

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U.S. Home Building Hits Highest Level in Nearly 6 Years

US home building is up.  So, more evidence of an improving economy?  Asset bubble from the Fed QE?

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U.S. Home Building Hits Highest Level in Nearly 6 Years

Jonathan House

The Wall Street Journal. - The Wall Street Journal. - ‎Wednesday‎, ‎December‎ ‎18‎, ‎2013

U.S. housing starts rose 22.7% from October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,091,000 in November, the highest level in nearly six years, in the latest sign of renewed momentum in the sector's recovery.

If you have Windows 8, open this in The Wall Street Journal.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304866904579265963142745166.html?mod=rss_front_total_headlines?a=1&m=en-us

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Quick Market Thoughts

• We are all awaiting for the wise words of the Fed’s Ben Bernanke tomorrow.  Will the Fed taper or not?  They won’t.  You think that would be Bernanke’s swan song?  It would send the market down.  He doesn’t want to ruin the holidays for anyone!
• Will Yellen taper next year?  Eh.  Hard to say but maybe.  I would think she’d be more QE friendly than Bernanke.
• Yes, the market is overbought.  But that doesn’t mean it can’t get more overbought.  As we head into the holiday weeks, it is hard to imagine a scenario where 2013’s winning stocks get sold off.  If anything, it seems that they’d be bought up more to make sure they’re on everyone’s year-end statements.
• Stocks that are down for the year may see some tax loss selling and not much buying.
• My guess is that the market remains strong, or at least doesn’t go down, until year end.  Hopefully the January effect works next year and the market starts off 2014 strong.
• I remain in cash, looking for a correction that never comes!  I have traded a little bit, but nothing significant.  I may try and buy dips or pullbacks from now until year end.  We shall see.

Tuesday Randomosity and Market Thoughts

• Stock market was down. Again. Will it ever go up again?  I’m in cash for some bizarre reason, but don’t think the market ends up lower at year end than it is now.  In other words, it should keep going up until the quarter and year end, uh, ends.
• Is there too little fear in the market?  Seems like the bulls are all over the place, but so are the folks who remember the last two bear markets in stocks, and another one in real estate.
• Mastercard is going to split 10-1 and hike the dividend.  Remember in the late 90’s how those kinds of things would cause a stock to rally?  Er, might want to get a quote check!
• Watching the Lakers host the Suns tonight, and Kobe really looks kind of slow out there.  Probably takes a while to get used to the NBA pace – right?
• Well, Sacramento has had a hard freeze warning now for – all week.  Looks like it is finally going to warm up a smidge.
• Global warming.  LOL.
• So the Senate and the House seem to have reached a budget compromise that means more spending now and cuts, er, yeah cuts, sometime down the road.  Sometime.  Later.  Down the road.  We’ll get to it when we get to it.
• YEAH RIGHT.  There will be no spending cuts.
• Anyway, I guess we can understand that the Republicans don’t want to get any bad press now and leave the bad press on the Democrats with the Obamacare roll out thing.
• Ruben Studdard on The Biggest Loser.  LOL.  Where’s that guy been?!?!?!?  He looks thinner. Good for him.
• I still can’t believe it is Christmas time again already.  Blink and you’ll miss it!
• So bottom line is that the year end should be nice for the market.  Look at the rallies in the social media stocks.  Again, reminds me of B2B everything in 1999-2000.  Just saying.  No worries just yet, but… you know.

AAPL - It's Going to be a Very Apple Christmas

I think the Apple iPad Air and Mini are going to be hot Christmas gifts.  Talking with a few trendy friends, they are gifting a bunch of iPads this year. 

Just saying. File under Peter Lynch buy what you know.

No positions. 

NFL Snowball and Stock Market Thoughts

• The stock market started to roll over last week, but then Friday happened and the market ended up relatively flat.
• Reason du jour?  The jobs report was good and the unemployment rate is now down to 7%.  Of course, there are fewer folks in the work force and all.  But nobody seems to pay attention to that. 
• Snow storms all across NFL Sunday.  I can’t recall a Sunday like this before.  The games in Philadelphia and Baltimore are just nuts!
• Remember when good news was bad news?  Why?  Well, good news means that the Fed may start tapering the $85B per month stimulus.
• The rally-into-year-end theme still seems in tact. 
• Remember when the Green Bay Packers used to win home games?  Down to the Atlanta Falcons as I type.  Plenty of time left…