Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Quick Market Thoughts

  • We are all awaiting for the wise words of the Fed’s Ben Bernanke tomorrow.  Will the Fed taper or not?  They won’t.  You think that would be Bernanke’s swan song?  It would send the market down.  He doesn’t want to ruin the holidays for anyone!
  • Will Yellen taper next year?  Eh.  Hard to say but maybe.  I would think she’d be more QE friendly than Bernanke.
  • Yes, the market is overbought.  But that doesn’t mean it can’t get more overbought.  As we head into the holiday weeks, it is hard to imagine a scenario where 2013’s winning stocks get sold off.  If anything, it seems that they’d be bought up more to make sure they’re on everyone’s year-end statements.
  • Stocks that are down for the year may see some tax loss selling and not much buying.
  • My guess is that the market remains strong, or at least doesn’t go down, until year end.  Hopefully the January effect works next year and the market starts off 2014 strong.
  • I remain in cash, looking for a correction that never comes!  I have traded a little bit, but nothing significant.  I may try and buy dips or pullbacks from now until year end.  We shall see.

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