What a Week!

It’s been a volatile and emotional week in the market. Tomorrow is month end and typically the 401k and IRA money hits mutual funds, giving some strength to the markets.  Supposedly.

It’s late and I’m keeping this short.  Earnings are creating some big winners and losers.

I am close to 100% long.  I trimmed all exposure to emerging markets and am focusing on the leaders pulling back to support.  Playing some earnings – white knuckled.  Some have worked out great.  Some haven’t.

Other than that, the super bowl hype is in overdrive.  I don’t like that the networks are previewing commercials, although the idea is “eyeballs” on the products, so I can see why they do it. I think it was YUM that had a contest to create a commercial, and they’ve had over 27 million eyeballs on their commercials – before the game!  Nice strategy.

I had Taco Bell for dinner, by the way!

More tomorrow.  Should.  Maybe an audioboo.

Leno on – why am I still up?

ZZZZZZZZ…..

Facebook Soars

Take that, Princeton! $FB - The Facebook reported earnings today and the stock SOARED.

So what’s the deal? The stock had sold off (like everything else) the past week, and owning a stock ahead of earnings has been a risky proposition.  Many people were getting worried that FB was getting so crowded, nobody went there anymore.  (Apologies and thanks to Yogi Berra).  That’s actually not too far from the truth, as kids say they’re using the FB less, and maybe that’s because the parents are on and watching!

Facebook Inc delivered its strongest revenue growth in two years, beating Wall Street targets as the Internet company's mobile ad sales continued to accelerate.

Shares of Facebook surged 12 percent to $59.98 in after-hours trading on Wednesday.

…

"They've cracked the code on mobile," said Arvind Bhatia, an analyst at Sterne, Agee & Leach. "Within a little over a year's time mobile has taken over desktop," in terms of ad revenue he said.

From http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/30/us-facebook-results-idUSBREA0S1ZO20140130

Whether or not the stock can hold the after hours gains is another question.  The market is getting dicey, and it seems that the stocks that led up are now leading down.

Apple Earnings and Market Thoughts Randomosity

• $AAPL - Apple reports earnings → CRASH!

Apple just posted results that didn’t exactly impress Wall Street, and the tech stock is selling off pretty significantly. In after-hours trading Monday, the stock shed more than 5%, and AAPL stock should open Tuesday down about the same.

From http://slant.investorplace.com/2014/01/aapl-stock-apple-earnings/

• That will probably have an early impact tomorrow.  But the growth rate at the fruit company has slowed.  Everyone has a smart phone, right? Is there a reason to upgrade? Are there other, larger screen options?  What’s next?
• The Dodgers signed Chone Figgins. That’ll about lock it up.  World Champs 2014.
• So the market edged up.  Then sold off.  Then reversed.  Then the reversal reversed and down the market went.  Not healthy.  Financials sold.  Techs sold.  Leaders sold.  Utilities and telecom up.  Not good.
• Heading to end of month – rally time? 
• One of the things on The Twitter was how bullish folks became on the reverse up.  Buy buy buy! Normally, I’d agree and thought about buying too.  I didn’t buy.
• Was it China? Was it Turkey? Well, some say it was the Fed.  This is Bernanke’s last one as the head Fed. So the topic of tapering has folks wondering what’s next considering the lackluster economic data and corporate earnings.  And poor housing starts.  And unemployment.
• President Obama gives the big speech tomorrow night, and supposedly it will highlight “income inequality.”  I will probably watch, but I will be sure NOT to drink any chocolate milk, lest it come shooting through my nose as I listen to the talking points.
• If I were making a market prediction, and I like do to that often, I would say that once we bottom, we rally back up to retest previous highs, and then the summer Sell in May time will be here.  That’s my first (of many) guesses to come in 2014.  My similar prediction in 2013 was about as productive as Chone Figgins was in 2013.

#232: Apple Earnings and Market Action

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Looking to the Futures

• After the market sell off last week, folks are wondering if that’s all she wrote for the bull market or if it’s just an overdue correction.  The futures as I type aren’t doing much… Tomorrow all eyes on Apple - $AAPL!
• Asian markets getting hit as I type.  Asian shares tumbled and the yen reached for seven-week highs against the dollar and euro on Monday as emerging markets remained under pressure, with the U.S. Federal Reserve poised to continue tapering stimulus and tighter credit conditions in China raising fears of a sharper economic slowdown.
• Grammy’s.  Yawn.  I watched it for a bit and then went and worked out and streamed Netflix.
• Did you watch the Pro Bowl?  Team Rice beat Team Sanders.  I didn’t watch it.  First Sunday without football for me since last August!  Sorry if I spoiled it and you have it on the DVR.
• Fed meets this week.  Think they’ll dial it up to 11?  Or continue the QE taper?  I think the latter but expect some language that they’re At The Ready to do whatever it takes.
• …the current pullback has many more catalysts, which means it won't be so easily reversed. 
• So, as I previously mentioned somewhere, here or Twitter, that I sold a bunch of things Friday.  Just using mental stops.  I’d rather risk a whipsaw here and buy stuff back than risk a bear market. Lessons learned from past bear markets.  Because I had some high flyers, and if this is a bear market some of those will go to $0.  Just like internet and B2B stocks in the last two bear markets. We could see social media and 3D printers shake out the same way.
• Anyway, I have a lot of cash at the ready.  I may step in a few things tomorrow with tight stops – or just let the dust settle.  Haven’t decided.
• I think I’m on Season 1, Episode 18 of Nikita.  LOL.

A Day of Worry

Plenty of worry hit the markets today. Blame China.  Blame poor earnings. Blame $NFLX!  Sure, the stock soared on earnings, but that just means people are home streaming videos instead of out shopping and eating!

Here’s what was up over  1% on the NDX:

 

There are a handful of winners with big volume today.  Back to Netflix, which is just going gangbusters, Charles Payne on Fox Business said that “Reed Hastings is the Richard Sherman” of movie content, as Hastings said that HBO boss’ password must be “Netflix bitch.”

Here’s what was down on the NDX, percentage and volume change, (not a complete list!):

Today’s market wrap from Marketwatch:

U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Thursday as weak economic data from China prompted investors to sell resource stocks and emerging-markets assets and seek safety in bonds, gold, and high-dividend paying sectors.

From http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-spooked-by-weak-china-data-2014-01-23

Was that ATT up today? And the emerging markets took another hit today.  I took a position in EEM near the end of the day, just for giggles.

After hours, Microsoft and Starbucks were up on their earnings numbers.  Man, I should just be long Starbucks if I did the Peter Lynch buy-what-you-know thing.  I stand in a long line for expensive coffee at least 3 times a week. 

Is Facebook the Next MySpace?

Will $FB - Facebook be the next Myspace? (Uh, what is Myspace?)

I'm going to say “I don't think so” simply because a lot of adults use FB to keep in touch.  And adults have a lot more money than teenagers.

 Facebook (FB) could lose 80% of its users between 2015 and 2017 and could be headed to MySpace land, warns a Princeton University study.

…

"(Our) model suggests that Facebook will undergo a rapid decline in the coming years, losing 80% of its peak user base between 2015 and 2017," said the study.

From http://news.investors.com/technology/012214-687157-princeton-study-sees-myspace-future-for-facebook.htm

People can’t predict what the weather will be like tomorrow or if MCD or PCP earnings will meet or beat estimates.

Earnings Roulette Randomosity

• Did you own $NFLX? Congrats! $IBM or $JNJ?  So sorry.  Free cocktail?  It’s hard to guess which way the winds will blow on each earnings report.  Be safe!
• I’m still around 70% long in this and that.  Mostly index stuff, but trading around the edges.  That’s been a little hit and miss for me so far.  As usual.  I think I’m better at the longer term stuff. Except last year.  LOL.
• For the most part, I’m buying gentle pullbacks after higher volume break outs.  Buy high and sell higher.
• The New York Yankees signed Masahiro Tanaka, and the baseball world has yawned.  I could have SWORN I heard a “Doh!” coming from the LA Dodgers.
• So, I don’t know if Richard Sherman (not pictured) is the best cornerback in the league or not, but I’m leaning on not.  But he is pretty good.
• I’ll have my super bowl thoughts next week.  Heading to Reno on Saturday to visit the sports book!
• Netflix surged after hours.  As did EBAY.  As did F5.  Not so much American Eagles Outfitters.
• McDonalds tomorrow – MCD.  And I’m debating on taking a pre-earnings position in SBUX – Starbucks.  PCP should be another interesting one.
• Market thoughts…  Well, I guess I’m concerned at the bullishness out there – but bullish about the concern about the bullishness out there.  We’re hitting the end of January and I am expecting a pullback somewhere.  I’m more long than short.  Month-end strength coming.  I think the cold weather could be hurting some companies and economic data down the road…

The Heart of Earnings Season

Big football games. Big corporate earnings. Earnings season is still going strong and the market reaction will continue to be guesswork.  Will we get reactions like $AXP or like $INTC? It’s risky making an investment ahead of an earnings announcement.  Many folks recommend against it.  I tend to avoid doing it – but not always!

I’m continuing to invest in strong stocks and mostly trading a little here and there.  I’m a little more than 50% long right now.

There are also more articles out there about how the market is about to tumble, perhaps encouraged by poor earnings numbers.  (More on this later…)

With the big banks out of the way, stock investors will turn their attention to tech and consumer-driven stocks this holiday-shortened week

Link…

From http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sloppy-market-turns-to-consumer-tech-earnings-2014-01-19?dist=lbeforebell

But lets not get too far ahead of ourselves.  Monday is Martin Luther King Jr. day, and the markets are closed. We all have a chance to catch our breath and pause for just a few seconds before the data onslaught!

Earnings Season Roulette!

It’s earnings season roulette! $INTC, $UPS and $AXP! You never know how a stock will react to earnings and forward guidance. Intel, UPS and American Express are Friday’s great examples.  Intel and UPS were down, while American Express was initially down in after hours trading on Thursday, only to reverse and have a great day on Friday!

In the case of UPS, they warned that their numbers would be off – but, aren’t we told that the mall traffic was down in part because folks were shopping online?

Hmm, one would think UPS would be a good one if that’s the future trend.

(Disclosure: Long UPS)

‎3 signs that stocks cost too much‎‎

Here's another article warning folks that stocks cost too much and that "Wall Street is spinning you a line…"

Just noticing, that's all.

***

3 signs that stocks cost too much

By Brett Arends

MarketWatch - MarketWatch - Thu Jan 16 16:45:00 UTC 2014

Wall Street will tell you stocks are still a good investment because they are reasonably valued when...

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How Bullish is Everyone?

We are being told how bullish everyone is and how that is a Contrarian sign. But here's another article that makes one wonder how bullish folks really are - or are they still fearful that this is just another bubble that will end up crashing as in 2000 and 2007?

This is one of those "stocks are up even though data is bad" and "once folks realize …" kind of articles.

Just wondering…

***

Do fundamentals matter anymore?

By John Nyaradi

MarketWatch - MarketWatch - Thu Jan 16 16:45:00 UTC 2014

As the stock market continues to shake off poor employment and earnings reports, one can only wonder...

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Thursday Market Thoughts

• Whoa, was that $BBY – Best Buy hitting the skids today? Showrooming is the practice of examining merchandise in a traditional brick and mortar retail store without purchasing it, but then shopping online to find a lower price for the same item.
• So today’s action in the market wasn’t pitiful.  Yes, the Dow fell and the SP500 inched lower.  But the Nazamatazz was up a few.  We’re trucking through earnings season and various Fed comments, so it can get a little dicey.  But after Monday’s panic attack, the market soared Tues and Wed, and seemed to pause to catch its breath today.
• Some of the leading stocks get a little whippy here and there.  I’ve been trading them some and it feels crazy to buy something extended way beyond its 10dma.  But every pullback seems to be bought up so far.  And I’m not chasing any pyramid scheme stocks (you know the tickers).  I’m also scared of Russian stocks – but if one can catch the volatility in the right direction – KA-CHING!
• (Oh, same goes for biotechs with no earnings or profits or lemonade sales).
• I’ve definitely noticed that Best Buy crowds have thinned out considerably.  In years past, the place was a zoo around the holidays!  There would be long lines winding around the front of the store, with folks waiting to be assigned to a cashier.  This Christmas, no crowds and no lines.
• The Professor from Gilligan’s Island passed away.  RIP, Russell Johnson.
• Another season of American Idol already?  Time goes by too fast.  And Nikita gets cancelled.  SHEEZ.  Maggie Q did no singing whatsoever and Nikita was on for less than 4 hours a week.  Is that why the show was cancelled?
• They say American Idol viewership was down by 3 million, but still a huge audience.  Like way more people watching it than going to their local Best Buy.
• BENGHAZI.
• Have you seen airline stocks?  I hate airline stocks.  But I had one for a trade earlier.  I guess with oil prices down and FEES FEES FEES for everything, the companies are doing well.  But who likes those FEES?

#231: The Bull Market Rages On

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Best Day After Worst Day

Yesterday was the worst of times. Today was the best of times. $SPY

Yes, just one day after we were all ready to throw in the towel and declare a bear market after a 2% pullback in the market, all was forgiven and forgotten today as the market staged it’s best day in 2014.

U.S. stocks rallied to their best day of the year Tuesday as investors welcomed stronger-than-expected retail sales, got a boost from Google Inc. and Apple Inc., and absorbed earnings results from J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co.

From http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-rise-after-retail-sales-top-forecasts-2014-01-14

Okay, so after yesterday I decided to lighten up on the bounce this morning.  I lightened up on some SPY.  My thinking was that early strength would be met by institutional selling late in the day.

Nope.  Didn’t happen.

BTFD.

I’m about 50% cash at this point.  Hello, 2014 whipsaw!  Looks like the market wants to go higher.  Volume was a bit lighter today than yesterday, so that isn’t the way it’s supposed to work.

A New Bear Market?

Is the stock market headed to another bear market? ($SPY)

Stocks, no longer cheap, hit the skids

Goldman Sachs reminded Wall Street that stocks aren't cheap anymore.

…

It may be just a coincidence, but the Dow Jones industrial average suffered a drop of nearly 180 points on Monday, its biggest point drop since late September, on the same day the banking giant said its historical research shows the broad U.S. stock market's current valuation is "lofty by almost any measure."

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2014/01/13/stocks-hit-skids/4464327/

Here we are.  We’ve been told that investor sentiment is too bullish, so stocks must come down.  We’ve been told that stock valuations are too high, so stocks must come down.  We’ve been told that whenever there is froth in the market, where a biotech stocks surges over 500% in two days (I’m looking at you, $ICPT - Intercept), stocks must come down.

And today, stocks came down.  It was ugly, too.  Some of the leading names were up early, only to be sold off hard.  Was that you, $BIIB – Biogen?

I don’t know any more than you do if the market is heading into a new bear market, a stock market correction, or if today was a one-day wonder.  The SP500 nears the 50dma, which I suspect would be where the bulls try to make a stand.  I do think it is time to make sure that profits be kept and that losses be cut short.

BTFD may not work just yet!

I am currently about 30% in cash.  (Maybe I was one of the last folks in the pool!)

I suspect that I will be raising cash should the market drop below the 50dma, and wait for a better day. 

Technorati Tags: $SPY,$ICPT,$BIIB,bear market

Banks Earnings Palooza!

Banks Earnings Palooza this next week! $JPM, $BAC, and $GS coming up!  It is difficult for the overall market to get in trouble if financial stocks are doing okay. 

*Fingers crossed*

***

All Eyes on Bank Earnings This Week

Luke Jacobi

Benzinga - Benzinga - Sun Jan 12 16:30:00 UTC 2014

After Alcoa's disappointing earnings last Thursday, earnings season is underway. The financial secto...

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Nevada's Biggest Casinos Lose $1.35B in 2013

Nevada casinos haven't netted a profit since 2008.  Lots of revenues, but lots of expenses.  (Thanks for the free drinks!)

***

Nevada's largest casinos, still climbing out of the recession, suffered a combined net loss of $1.35 billion in 2013, marking the fifth straight year without an overall profit, state regulators reported Friday.

From http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/01/11/Nevadas-biggest-casinos-lose--135B-in-2013

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Janet Yellen’s First Test!

Janet Yellen (not pictured) faces her first test as the QE taper program runs up against a disappointing jobs number.  Yes, it’s just one month.  But in addition to the poor jobs number, retail sales have been week.  Macy’s just announced some new layoffs.  Alcoa kicked off earnings season with a miss.  How strong is this economy?  Will the Fed continue to taper, slow it down, or ease some more?

Ben Bernanke was known as Helicopter Ben, and many are thinking (out loud) that Yellen will be even more accommodative than Bernanke.

Stay tuned!

(Yes, another one of Maggie Q…)

***

Weak jobs growth unlikely to derail QE cuts: Fed officials

Jonathan Spicer and Krista Hughes

Reuters - Reuters - ‎Friday‎, ‎January‎ ‎10‎, ‎2014

Another cut to bond purchases appears in the offing this month despite data that showed U.S. jobs growth slowed sharply in December, two top Federal Reserve officials said on Friday. The officials, from opposite sides of the U.S. central bank's spectrum of policymakers, reinforced public perceptions that it would take a more significant slowdown in the labor market to convince the Fed to stop withdrawing stimulus.

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Target Stock and the Data Breach ($TGT)

At some point, $TGT will be a buy. Target is going through the stolen data stuff now, but it seems to me that an investor panic in a stock can create a tremendous value in shares of a popular retailer.

Remember the Toyota brakes issue and the sell off in $TOY?  Ya, great buying opportunity.

***

Target breach worse than thought; states launch joint probe

Dhanya Skariachan and Jim Finkle

Reuters - Reuters - ‎Friday‎, ‎January‎ ‎10‎, ‎2014

The data breach at Target Corp over the holiday shopping season was far bigger than initially thought, the U.S. company said on Friday, as state prosecutors announced a nationwide probe into the second-biggest retail cyber attack on record. Target said an investigation found that hackers stole the personal information of at least 70 million customers, including names, mailing addresses, telephone numbers and email addresses. Previously, the No. 3 U.S. retailer said the hackers stole data from 40 million credit and debit cards.

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Randomosity and Maggie Q!

• More on stocks and Maggie Q!
• Chris Christie apologized for something today -  it was on all of my $SIRI satellite radio news stations.  I’m not sure what it was all about since I’m here in CA, but it forced me to me listen to the audio version of Cramer’s Mad Money from yesterday.  Really!  Buy buy buy!
• I liked Jim’s talk about Bank of America - $BAC.  Don’t you wish you had bought at the lows of the financial crash?  Seems a bit extended now, despite the “me, too!” headlines lately.  But something to watch.  Many folks predicting that bank and financial stocks will be great again in 2014.  And it’s tough to get into a bear market with financial stocks doing well.
• Health wise, the feet feel a little better week by week.
• I’ll be back to audioboos/podcasts soon.  My goal is 2-3 a week.  The feet and meds are the main reason for me unplugging a bit in 2013.
• Maggie Q in Nikita.  Yay, Netflix.  I’ve been working out to Season 9 of The Office, and now watching Nikita.  Four episodes in!  The first episode had Maggie Q in a bikini, and I just haven’t stopped watching.
• Investors Business Daily has a good list of leading stocks, but some pretty dicey names in the mix!
• Psych The Musical – Not good.
• Anything jumping out at you from CES this week?  Kind of a let down, huh?  Wearable tech?  Really?  Well – all that stuff needs chips.  Semis.  Just saying.
• And power!  MORE POWER!

Market Thoughts

Market thoughts: The market reversed again today, and then bounced.  The past few days a lot has happened, yet not a lot has happened.  The market seems to be moving sideways and rotating around.

Yes, they say everyone is bullish and yet everyone seems to be predicting that a big sell off is around the corner.  I’m not sure who is right – they all make sense.  After all, we are seeing some huge valuations and biotech “lottery ticket”stocks hitting big.  Revenues don’t matter these days.  Yet, you can’t go to a financial website and not see an article about a sell off coming soon. 

Emerging Markets continue to suck.  At some point it’s got to turn around.  Many folks are trying to bottom pick the EEM, but so far it just keeps selling.  Whoever gets that one right will look like a Wile E. Coyote.

As for me… I’m near 100% long in various leading stocks trying to be in the ones moving up and being careful about the ones moving down.  I’m not going to tout specific names, but I like leading stocks that are tightly consolidating around the 10dma or 50dma.  Most is in SPY, though.  But if things break down I’m out.

[I should have done this in 2013 as I was out of the market for many months and underperformed.  I’m blaming health issues (broken feet). I talked about it a lot on the blog and in the audioboos/podcasts, but just couldn’t do it.]

The Chinese and Russian stocks that seem to move around 7% on rumors or denial of rumors scare me. I’d love to guess right on some of these.  Check out some of the long candles on these kinds of names!

I’m not too concerned about the market moving sideways and frustrating some folks.  I’m hoping that the market is digesting the 2013 gains and consolidating by moving sideways in a tight pattern rather than some dramatic plunge.  I think the latter is very likely at some point, but hoping for sideways yawn as the 50dma catches up to the daily close.

But I do think the historic trend of a non-presidential election year correction is very likely this year.

***

Be right back with a “randomosity” post!

Semis and Fed Minutes‎

The market  fell after the Fed minutes, but rebounded a bit.  $MU Micron helped Semis and the Nasdaq.  I think it's good news for the economy when semiconductors are going strong.  Everything we need these days runs on technology which runs on semiconductors.

As for me, I've been close to 100% long in-and-out the past few days.  Yes, trading a lot more frequently but keeping losses small and letting gains run as far as they can.  Trying to focus on leading stocks.  As we approach earnings I think individual stocks will be volatile and risky, and I may just look at the big index tickers instead.  Heck, look at the difference between Micron ($MU) and The Container Store ($TCS) today.  Wow!  Guess right and you win a lobster dinner.  Guess wrong and it's beans for dinner.

I'm wondering if money in international investments is at currency exchange risk if the US dollar strengthens against foreign bucks.  Just thinking out loud.

***

Fed Saw Waning Stimulus Benefits, Minutes Show

By Joshua Zumbrun and Craig Torres

Bloomberg - Bloomberg - Wed Jan 8 19:15:00 UTC 2014

Federal Reserve officials saw diminishing economic benefits from the central bank's bond buying prog...

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Will GameStop Survive?

Can $GME - GameStop survive Sony PlayStation PS4 streaming ($SNE)? Everything is going in the cloud. How many employees work at the over 7000 GameStop locations?

This is of interest to me as I'm watching the PS4 vs Microsoft's ($MSFT) Xbox One competition.  Include $GME in this mix now, as the ability to sell used games is in focus.

***

Sony Playstation Now Just Put GameStop On Notice

By Jason Notte

Thestreet.com - Thestreet.com - Wed Jan 8 18:30:00 UTC 2014

PORTLAND, Ore. -- Sony just made every video game from its PlayStation's pre-PS4 history available f...

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Wild Card Weekend Randomosity

• Reading articles about how everyone is bullish, so the market will be lousy in 2014.  But if everyone thinks everyone else is bullish, and then they themselves are bearish… Hmm.
• Andy Dalton threw 57 interceptions and fumbled the ball away 24 times today, as the Bengals lost to the Chargers. My numbers may be off a little, but the end result was the same.  I had the Bengals at 22-1 to win all the marbles.  I lost my marbles instead!
• Coldest temps in decades. “Northern and central regions of the U.S. are seeing “life-threatening wind-chill” conditions, with temperatures dropping to the lowest point in almost two decades, federal officials warned Sunday.”  [Insert global warming joke here.]
• “But Muck!  It’s not global warming, it’s climate change!” 
• Hey the Consumers Electronics Show is this week!  I’m waiting for the new automatic gizmo that can automatically detect and eliminate dog poop from the backyard.  I want in on that IPO!
• So I have put some cash to work in a few things over the past few days.  Still have some cash.  And I realize that I may be the last guy in the theme park.  But if things go bad I’m out.
• 150,000 to Las Vegas for the CES?
• Micron – MU:  Earnings on the 7th.  That’s Tuesday.  No positions yet, but that one could paint an interesting picture. 
• Alcoa – AA:  Kicks off the unofficial start of earnings season on Friday.
• Oh… Janet Yellen vote tomorrow, right?  She’s in.  I expect her to be more accommodative than Bernanke.

Oil Rides the Rails‎ Instead of Keystone Pipeline��

So, the reason environmentalists don't want Keystone Pipeline is… Safety?

Concern Over Safety Grows as More Oil Rides the Rails

MATTHEW L. WALD

The New York Times - The New York Times - Fri Jan 3 15:30:00 UTC 2014

WASHINGTON — Safety officials have worried for years about hazardous materials carried on trains, bu...

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Follow Up

Follow up – I don’t just buy off the 50dma willy nilly.  If in a downtrend, that gets sliced through like buttah!  No risk, no reward.  Willing to risk a bit here on the thought that the uptrend is okay and this is just an “opportunity” in a holiday week/blizzard/global warming event.

Not reading too much into it – yet.

Adding Shares of Falling Knives

Bought some $$ in a travel website near 50dma.  Name your price, Shatner!  But it is starting to feel like a falling knife in the market, eh?  Added $SPY yesterday.  Still have a bunch of cash, but feeling like the idiot that buys a Disneyland ticket 30 minutes before closing time.  You know, last guy in the pool.  Er, theme park.

But you know, Disneyland wants customers to be happy and have a good experience.  If you are in line when the park closes, they still let those in line at the time go on the ride.

Hoping the market does the same.

But suddenly there is all this wall of worry stuff that just wasn’t on the radar last week.  And profit taking from last year!  Still wondering if light volume is pushing this thing around.

Last thought for now…  Notice some of the leaders that have the 10dma or 50dma as resistance, instead of support? 

Shatner is no Jamie Chung, but who doesn’t love Captain Kirk?

First Trading Day of 2014 Randomosity

• The SP500 had its first negative “first day”since 2008.  So, we have that to brag about.  But is it reason to panic?  “The opening day and full year performance has moved in the same direction 50.6% of the time, with the two moving in different directions 49.4% of the time – flip a coin.”
• Heck, flip a bitcoin!
• Picture is of Jamie Chung.  Why not?  I hear she has some Maxim pictures on the internets.  Whoa!
• But just what is the “big money” betting on in 2014?  “The big-money crowd is gambling that stock markets will keep soaring in 2014, that the U.S. dollar will rise, and that bonds, commodities and gold will continue to slump…”  So, more of the same!  Seems like most folks usually seem to think whatever is happening now will continue to happen.
• Kind of like picking Alabama to win the BCS championship every year because they always win!  Er, they’re #3 and losing to #11 Oklahoma as I type.  Just saying.  Things can change.
• As I type, Asian markets are losing in sympathy with the Crimson Tide and “risk aversion.”  The article goes on to mention that the moves seem “divorced from the news flow which was mostly upbeat.”  Of course, we all know that the market looks towards the future, not the past.  Right?
• Anyway, I just wanted to get that picture of Jamie Chung out there.
• And… to say that the market is still in holiday mode, and that means it can be whippy in light volume.  The “reason du jour” for today’s selling ranges from tax planning post 2013 tax year, to over-extended stocks must correct at some point, to #getoutbeforeyouloseeverything.
• So we have month end strength that usually occurs from the last day through the first few trading days of the month.  We have “the first five days of January,” and “as January goes, so goes the year.”  Pick your favorite.
• I hope it’s another great year!
• As I mentioned earlier, I bought some near the lows today and plan to trade around it – if there are any gains to be had in the days ahead.  But I suspect the 50dma will be visited at some point in the future, and that we’ll have some sort of non-presidential year correction.
• Stay tuned!

Worst Day of 2014

Today is the worst day in the stock market of 2014! I’ve actually put some cash to work today in SPY.  This is the first down day on the first trading day of the year since 2008.  The reason du jour is tax selling and planning.  Yadda yadda yadda. 

More later.  Lunch time here on the West Coast!

2014 Stock Market Predictions!

Here are the 2014 stock market predictions. 

The index numbers on 1/1/2014:

• Dow: 16,557
• SP500: 1,848
• Nasdaq: 4,177

On to the Fox Business Network gurus!  These are 2014 predictions from the December 28th, 2013 shows. I included closing prices from Friday 12/27/2013 as we as the year end price.

Bulls and Bears

Gary B. Smith:  AET 40% gain, no matter what happens with Obamacare!  Dow 16,500.

Jonas Max Ferris: DZZ 2x short gold, up 50% in 2014.  Dow 15,500.

John Layfield:  SDRL and  a 25% profit in 2014, not counting dividend.  Dow 18,103.

 

Cavuto on Business

Adam Lashinsky:  VWNFX (Vanguard Windsor II fund) full of undervalued large companies.  $36.58 on 12/27/13.  I’m not sure about their distribution dates. The funded closed at $36.77 on 12/31.

Gary Kaltbaum:  TIF closed at $90.87 on 12/27/13.  The markets are up and the rich are spending.  The stock ended the year at $92.78.

 

Forbes on Fox

Elizabeth MacDonald:  XAR, the ETF that tracks the S&P Aerospace and defense.  It closed at $99.05 on 12/27/2013 and the year at $99.02.

John Tamny:  BBRY closed 12/27/2013 at $7.30, as “they’ve outsourced their manufacturing and that bodes well for next year.”  Closed 12/31 at $7.44.

 

Cashin' In

Jonathan Hoenig: Interest rates are going to go up in 2014, so buy JGBS to bet against bonds.  The ticker was at $19.23 on 12/27/13 and finished the year at $19.37.

Wayne Rogers: IBB – Biotech!  This is a diversified ETF across the biotech sector.  The ETF was at $225.92 on 12/27/13 and closed the year at $227.06.

Good luck to all in 2014!  I have no positions in any of the above names.

2013 Predictions Review

$$ - Here were the 2013 stock market predictions:

Here are the index returns from 1/1/2013 to 1/1/2014:

• Dow: 13,104 to 16,557
• SP500: 1,426  to 1,848
• Nasdaq: 3,019 to 4,177

Wow!

On to the Fox Business Network gurus (and my comments from then)!

Bulls and Bears

Gary B. Smith: AAPL up to new highs

“Apple currently trades at $532.17, after a big $22.58 move on Monday, after the Bulls and Bears show was broadcast over the weekend. I'm not giving the show credit for the Monday move, as the whole market was being moved by fiscal cliff kinds of things. The 52-week and all time high is $705.07. I like the pick. We'll get a good idea if this pick is going to work out in a few weeks when Apple reports!”

AAPL finished 2013 at $561.30.  Not even close to new highs, but the stock did turn around in 2013 when many folks thought it was toast.

Jonas Max Ferris: IRBT

“iRobot Corporation is at $18.74, up $.15 on the Monday following the show. Interesting pick by Jonas.”

IRBT finished 2013 at $34.77. Nice job, Jonas!

Tobin Smith: RIMM

“Research in motion was up 8-cents monday, closing out the year at $11.87. My thought is that this company is losing market share, and I don't see it recovering or gaining against Android or Apple. Or even Microsoft, for that matter.”

Toby is no longer on the show, but RIMM’s ticker changed to BBRY and finished 2013 at $7.46.  Ouch! 

Cavuto on Business

Charles Payne: TRN $35.15, CLF $35.58, EWJ $9.67

“This year, Charles was the only stock picker on the program giving the above three picks. I typed in the closing prices for the stocks on the Friday before the show, but now on Jan 1st, TRN trades at $35.82, CLF trades at $38.57 after a big 8.4% move Monday, EWJ trades at $9.75.”

At the end of 2013:  TRN:  $54.52.  CLF $26.18.  EWJ $12.15.  So, that’s 2 out of 3 for Charles.

Forbes on Fox

Morgan Brennan: BX

“Blackstone Group closed Friday at $15.25 before the show was recorded, and was up 2.23% to $15.59 at the close on Monday, New Years Eve.”

BX finished 2013 at $31.60 – Wow, nice pick from Morgan!

Bill Baldwin: GWW

“W. W. Granger closed at $198.20 on Friday when the show was recorded, and popped $4.17 Monday to $202.37.”

GWW finished 2013 at $255.42.

Elizabeth MacDonald: RBCGX

“RBCGX closed the year at $57.74. It was up Monday by $1.15 or over 2%. Again, this is after Friday's show.”

RBCGX is the Royal Blue Chip Growth Fund, and it closed 2013 at $74.49.

 

Cashin' In

These folks are all swinging for the fences. I don't know what to say about these picks!

Jonathan Hoenig: SMFG to double in 2013

SMFG began 2013 at $7.34 and closed at $10.49.  Nope.

Wayne Rogers: LXRX to triple in 2013

LXRX began 2013 at $2.21 and closed at $1.799.  Ouch!

John Layfield: FB jumps 50% in 2013’'

FB began 2013 at $26.62 and closed at $54.65.  Got it!  (And more…)

Carol Roth: HLF up 200-300% in 2013

HLF began 2013 at $32.94 and closed at $78.70.  Well, it was a big move but fell a short of the MONSTER prediction.  That’s a stock I just refuse to participate in because the business model scares me.  Wish I had owned it from start to finish in 2013, though.  Wow.

You can be the judge of the gurus.  It was a year where most stocks in the SP500 were up.

2014 predictions in the on deck circle… 

2013: The Year I Was Horrible

2013 was the year where my market timing sucked. Totally sucked.  I sold some in February, and the rest in May, waiting for a stock market correction that never came.  “Sell in May and go away” didn’t work this year.  I believe I read somewhere that the market was never in the red in 2013.  Always up.  This was a year where buy and hold ruled.

Yes, the market did pull back to the 50dma a few times.  Big whoops.  Buy the dips was the way to go.

My total return in my trading accounts was 7%.  Ouch.  And I’m rounding the hundredths positions up .02, just to make it a round number.  Double ouch.

I didn’t lose money.  Psychologically, I don’t feel horrible in the pit of my stomach, as I didn’t bet against the market.  But I did dramatically underperform the market.  Cash in money market accounts does not appreciate much these days!

2013 Stock Market Returns (rounded)

• Dow:   27%
• SP500:  30%
• Nasdaq:  38%

What news events were on the wall of worry?

• The Boston Marathon Bombing
• The Budget Sequester
• Political turmoil in the Middle East (Maybe this is always the case)
• The threat of a Federal Reserve tapering of Quantitative Easing
• Even the George Zimmerman trial!

Gold was a disaster. Most emerging markets were a disaster.

And my feet were a disaster, as I broke bones in both of my feet cycling over Memorial Day weekend and was in dramatic pain all summer long.  Ouch.  They have been sore since, and may always be that way. So I will blame my lack of market attention to pain and medication.  I need a scapegoat!

Were there lessons learned?  Yes!  Don’t be afraid to change my mind.  Let the 50dma (and especially strong support at the 50dma) be the guide.  If a stock is sold, it can always be bought back.  And vice-versa.

I enter 2014 having some trades on, and in anticipation of another positive year in the market.  And even surprising people to the upside.  Although, I will go with the historical view that the market sees a non-presidential year correction that is very scary.

Happy New Year to you, and I hope you have a wonderful and amazing 2014!