Wednesday, January 01, 2014

2013: The Year I Was Horrible

2013 was the year where my market timing sucked. Totally sucked.  I sold some in February, and the rest in May, waiting for a stock market correction that never came.  “Sell in May and go away” didn’t work this year.  I believe I read somewhere that the market was never in the red in 2013.  Always up.  This was a year where buy and hold ruled.

Yes, the market did pull back to the 50dma a few times.  Big whoops.  Buy the dips was the way to go.

My total return in my trading accounts was 7%.  Ouch.  And I’m rounding the hundredths positions up .02, just to make it a round number.  Double ouch.

I didn’t lose money.  Psychologically, I don’t feel horrible in the pit of my stomach, as I didn’t bet against the market.  But I did dramatically underperform the market.  Cash in money market accounts does not appreciate much these days!

2013 Stock Market Returns (rounded)

  • Dow:   27%
  • SP500:  30%
  • Nasdaq:  38%

What news events were on the wall of worry?

  • The Boston Marathon Bombing
  • The Budget Sequester
  • Political turmoil in the Middle East (Maybe this is always the case)
  • The threat of a Federal Reserve tapering of Quantitative Easing
  • Even the George Zimmerman trial!

Gold was a disaster. Most emerging markets were a disaster.

And my feet were a disaster, as I broke bones in both of my feet cycling over Memorial Day weekend and was in dramatic pain all summer long.  Ouch.  They have been sore since, and may always be that way. So I will blame my lack of market attention to pain and medication.  I need a scapegoat!

Were there lessons learned?  Yes!  Don’t be afraid to change my mind.  Let the 50dma (and especially strong support at the 50dma) be the guide.  If a stock is sold, it can always be bought back.  And vice-versa.

I enter 2014 having some trades on, and in anticipation of another positive year in the market.  And even surprising people to the upside.  Although, I will go with the historical view that the market sees a non-presidential year correction that is very scary.

Happy New Year to you, and I hope you have a wonderful and amazing 2014!

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