$SPY - The road is littered with bad market calls in 2014. I know I’ve made some, expecting the correction that never comes. After all, it’s a mid-term election year, and we’re guaranteed a correction of gut wrenching proportions sometime during the calendar year, to be followed by a glorious rally. So far, we’re just getting the glorious rally part of the deal.
Yes, there have been a few teases to the downside. But after a few days of getting folks riled up and the TV business networks unleashing the bear market forecasts, it’s been rip city, baby. This is an amazing picture!
Now we are on the verge of a few market catalysts that one would think should alert contrarians. The first was a Barron’s cover this weekend. Uh, tempt fate much?
Tuesday is the new product announcement from everyone’s favorite fruit company, Apple! $AAPL. Okay, so the rumors are that we’re getting multiple sized iPhones, and maybe some sort of new wearable. Folks are calling this the biggest Apple Event since Moses parted the Red Sea with an App from the first gen iPhone. Is this a potential sell the news event where the heavily index weighted AAPL drags down the index trackers? Stay tuned.
Finally, there is the Alibaba IPO, $BABA. You can’t watch five minutes of a financial news channel without someone mentioning the hot IPO and the best ways to play it. $YHOO – Yahoo stock has put on a nice rally as it will be a benefactor of the IPO feeding frenzy. I think $BABA can be a huge winner, too. But then I’ve caught the momo fever, too.
So where am I at right now? Mostly long. I still have some high flyers even though I’ve trimmed around the edges (but looking for somewhere to put that, too). I believe in the pullback that never comes, but grew tired of waiting for it. I am probably destined to suffer through it when it eventually comes. (Hopefully, that’s from much higher levels!)
This is the week before options, and if the market is going to pull back this looks like a likely spot. Although there is no reason to think that any dip won’t be bought up quickly. There are always the external headline news threats, but those haven’t done much damage so far this year.
Long and strong.
Final thoughts: Nice comeback win from Carson Palmer and the Arizona Cardinals. It’s been a great opening weekend to the NFL. My biggest surprise was the Bears losing at home to the Bills. I imagine that knocked a lot of folks out of their elimination pools in week 1.