Norm!

• Norm! As in Norm Fosback!  He of the famous seasonal timing system.  We're closing in on (yet another) holiday for the markets on January 15th, and Norm's system would have us in the market for the two days prior to the market holiday.   At least that's how I read it. 
• Apple (AAPL) today announced the coming of the iPhone and iTV.  The iPhone will be much more expensive than today's smartphones, and do roughly the same things.  But it will be "Apple" and therefore have a cool factor that the other products do not.  More thoughts on the iPhone here from SeekingAlpha.  I don't think his complaints matter (Cingular quality, expense of the iPhone).  Because AAPL has the "it factor" as Simon Cowell would say.
• The market today held up well.  Much of that I think was the mood swing created from Apple, but everything counts.  Nice close after the initial down.  And it looks to me like the MACD crossed on the NDX, for those who watch that.  I don't, but some do.
• Barry Ritholtz calls the iPhone Drool Worthy.
• Too much hype on that Ohio St vs Florida game.  What a boring blowout.  Can't we please get another game with Boise St?  Please?
• Jason notes that the sell signal is on in Interesting Divergences.
• Here's more on the 5-day failure of the market in 2007.  ...which our gurus who toil in some kind of boiler room somewhere tell us means the market has only about a 49% chance of ending the year higher than where it began.
• Paul Kedrosky with more on the Apple iPhone. News this morning of the Apple mobile phone is going to mess with the mobile market. Among other things, it is worth watching how mobile competitors' stocks perform on the news.

Whoa, Market Timing Works!

Wake the kids! Here's a story that says market timing works!


Of course, all you really have to do is buy low and sell high. I will never know why folks try to make it more complicated than that.

So what's the deal? This article says just buy the last trading day of the month and sell the first day of the month. Because of, you guessed it, monthly strength as folks dollar-cost into the market.

But those of you who read this blog know that Norm Fosback is the guy who pioneered the intricacies of the end of month and beginning of month strategies.

Hats off to Norm!

Saturday Stuff

• Inspired by multiple Thanksgiving halftime performances, John Fogerty was kind enough to fly here today and perform "Rock and Roll Girls." Yeah, baby.  Click play, grab some leftovers, and scroll down for some Saturday stuff.
• Cody Willard introduces us to TubeRevolution, which is yet another video sharing community thing.  I noticed Doug Kass has a video up from his K&C gig last week.  Cody mentions on his blog that The feature I think I'm excited about is TRiM -- TubeRevolution instant Messenger. TRiM keeps no records and does no tracking of anyone's usage at all. And it bypasses any and all firewalls and corporate check points. Free yourself from the tyranny!
• Overloaded on pumpkin pie yet?
• I had some credit on a book store gift card, so last week I bought William O'Neil's "The Successful Investor."  Of course, most may know about CANSLIM and the O'Neil strategies.  He has a wildly successful newspaper in Investor's Business Daily.  I'm half-way through the book over the long weekend, and it often comes across as a 200-page ad for the IBD.  It seems more condensed and rushed than his earlier book, but does include coverage of the 2000-2 bear market.  I'll write more on the book later, but one of the early chapters in the book that I think is the hardest thing for most investors is the "cut and run" strategy of taking losses.
• Yesterday I mentioned the falling-dollar theme.  Econobrowswer wonders would that be so bad?
• Mark Hulbert on Norm Fosback's seasonal timing method.   It's the Energizer Bunny of systems.  Keeps working. 
• I asked awhile back, what if nobody bought the Microsoft Zune?  Well, in iPod vs ?, Barry Ritholz has some MP3 sales numbers from Amazon's top seller list.  iPod is rocking that list, and Zune comes in at #16. 
• NakedShorts highlights Jim Cramer's "Watch TV.  Get Rich."  book booyah.  And of course the running one-liner of the week, couldn't Fox get the book publisher to cancel this one?
• Random Roger up with his Big Picture for the week of 11/26.  How have managed mutual funds stacked up against the SP500 index the past 20 years?  How have owners of those mutual funds performed in the same period?  And why was the dog growling at the end?
• Does it bother you that John Fogerty doesn't enunciate the consonant on the last word of the lyric? World is "worl." Girls is "girl." Etc.
• Enjoy the weekend!

Weekend (and Roselyn Sanchez!)

• Hey you.  It's the weekend.  I know you're all iTired right about now as the iPhone release yesterday seemed to grab every headline and even push Paris Hilton off the front page for at least a few minutes.  The stock market didn't seem to know what direction to go in at the end of quarter, either.  So lets calm down and breathe deeply.  Lets divert our attention for at least a second to Maxim's #1 girl, Roselyn Sanchez. 
• Tick-tock. 
• Interesting stories out today on the iPhone.  From an investing angle we have Financial Sense talking about an investor's dilemma.  Kind of a "on the one hand" vs. "on the other hand" kind of article.  (Or point-counterpoint: "Jane, you ignorant slut!") I don't see a lot of interest in the iPhone from my friends and others around me just yet.  I think there's a wait and see attitude.  The stock nuts among them do think that this will launch Apple to the moon.  Just anecdotal stuff.
• DK notes a serious threat to the iPhone already! 
• We're heading on the down slope of 2007.  How'd you do in the first half?  I'm fairly risk averse at this point and thinking that a summer correction will give me a chance to get more aggressive and sprint towards the finish line.  May or may not work out that way.  But patience is an old friend of mine.  Continuing with lower beta holdings, cash, and a few mo-mo names.  Nothing much changing there for now.  I don't have my stats at the ready yet.
• The Fly looks like he's cruising at about 30% YTD.  Whoa, Nellie.
• The seasonal investing patter by Norm Fosback would have you in the market the two days prior to a market holiday.   In addition to being fully invested the last two days of the month and the first five of the following month.  (Otherwise, 100% cash).  Some crossover there the next two trading days.   We'll see how it plays out.  I suppose the thought is that the monthly money flow from 401(k) plans and the like help boost the market month-end and early month, while shorts may want to cover pre-holiday.  Something like that.  I  haven't backtested that idea, but Mark Hulbert keeps track.
• Michelle succumbed to the beast and bought 2 iPhones.  But here's a nice note to that:  I’m #20 in line and plan to buy two IPhones. The second one will be auctioned off via a blind auction with all proceeds going to a recognized charity. 
• Reading Adam Warner's Randoms from yesterday, just reminded me that I used to have the Tusk drum beat going through my mind constantly.  And now do again.  Gwen Stefani's "Wind it Up" removed it temporarily, so I might try that when I hit the weight room.  Adam links to an article by Howard Lindzon on APPL stock on the iPhone launch.   
• Is Barry Ritholtz trying to shove Paris Hilton back to the front page with The Paris Hilton Trading System?  (Actually, BR links to David Linton's site which is a pay site.  David, this is the internet.  It's the only place where Marxism works.  Everything should be free to the people!)
• I haven't played the Wii much the past couple of weeks.  It's one of those things that once you start at it, 4 hours go by in a blink.  I played a quick game of tennis on the Wii this morning and am inching up to the "Pro" rank.  A bit of fun, though.
• Now, back to Roselyn Sanchez (naked, nude, topless, smoking, stripping, without a trace, rush hour, Rosalyn).  Roselyn is cast in Rush Hour 3.  She's from Puerto Rico.  She seems comfortable in her skin as you can see in the Maxim interview.  Interesting read on how she came to be where she is.  Not a big party girl, but maybe that is a bit refreshing these days.  As a friend says, "Clean as a box of Tide."

More Day After Christmas Randomosity!

Last week of 2010. I hope you made a ton in the stock market this year. We have now had two good years. It's easy to understand some of the confidence and positive sentiment coming back into equities.



Meanwhile...

• A Dash of Insight takes a look at interpreting investor sentiment. Dr. Jeff asks "If everyone else is bullish, should you be bearish?" A must read in my opinion. We hear so much about sentiment these days that it's important to take a good look at it. I love the Norm Fosback reference. Bonus points!
• John Dorfman likes Intel and Goldman Sachs for 2011. As investors make their resolutions for 2011, many should resolve to take on more risk. John believes that most folks should have a large stake in equities. About 60% or so. And, to make sure to take a long-term view.
• Rams vs. Seahawks game for next week moved to Sunday night. No, not because of global warming snowstorms, but for the division championship between two under-.500 teams!
• Okay, so I have been playing some Halo on the XBOX 360. Kind of fun. Always a challenge for me to play with remotes that have 5000 buttons and joysticks, but seem to have made some headway in this game. Single player, of course.
• Talking tech and building an empire from podcasts. Okay. Guilty. I download Leo Laporte's podcasts. I subscribe to the tech guy and ipad today. And I respect Leo's opinion and those of his callers and guests. It does influence me. So I understand the high advertising costs. It's the right target audience to pitch tech products and services.

Picture is of Lakers girl Dora. Just saying'...

Finally a Friday!

• Friday. Last trading day of February. 401(k) adds ready to pile in?  $$  At least for the first few days, eh Norm Fosback?
• “It’s gold, Jerry! Gold!” Kim Yu-Na.
• UCLA beat Oregon State, but the Pac-10 is pretty weak heading into March Madness.
• Former Governor Jerry Brown wants to take a look at the books of health care companies.  The California state attorney general's office said Thursday that it had subpoenaed financial records of California's seven largest health insurance companies as part of an investigation into whether they illegally raised customer premiums and denied payment of legitimate claims.
• Hello, can of worms.  What’s the goal?  To put price controls on health insurance?  Gee, price controls always work, eh?
• Price controls create man-made disasters.  (An article after the 2008 flooding in Iowa).
• I’m going to show more Black Box charts. None today, as nothing much has changed.  The Black Box says to stay out of the market.  I’m still long, though. 

Minimum Day!

• The market has a minimum day today! I heard Mark Haines mention this morning that the day before exchange holidays are up 80% of the time.  Of course as I mentioned last, Norm Fosback has a seasonal investing methodology that would dictate that you be in the market the two trading days before exchange holidays.  Bingo this time!
• Did you see Melissa Lee this morning on Squawk Box?  Maybe it was a little chilly on the floor today.  "The air conditioning is working!"  Just saying.  Sorry that I don't have a snap of here in that blue top she had on this morning!
• Lewis "Scooter" Libby gets his prison term commuted, and the left is outraged!  Ever heard of Mark Rich, folks?  This is what Presidents do.  There may even be a full pardon coming.
• Alyssa Milano is bleeding Dodgers blue on her blog.  What a baseball nut.  I saw a clip of her on The Best "Darn" Sports show recently, and the girl loves the game.  She says she has season tickets and goes to every other Dodgers game.  Wonder who she splits the tickets with?  And how did that come to be?
• One-third of Americans abuse alcohol.  I don't know if that's startling or not.
• You know Melissa Lee has a blog, right?  In today's entry, she blogs about Blackstone and LBO Boom:  Watch the Credit Market.  Excerpt:  As I write this, Blackstone  (BX) shares are up more than 1%, but still below $30 a share and below the offering price. And the grave dancers who have been predicting the LBO boom say: See? We're right! Investors don't want to bet on Steve Schwarzman anymore.
• Got home late from Reno last night.  Yeesh.  One of these days I'm really going to have to think about getting some serious sleep.
• Tax-managed funds outperform non-deductable IRAs.  Interesting.  Careful use of tax-managed funds can produce up to 9% better long-term returns for retirement than tradition tax-deferred investing, a new study shows.
• 4th of July already.  Holy smokes.  It always seems like the summer flies by from this point.  The next thing on the agenda is the Fantasy Football drafts, right?
• Melissa Lee naked, nude, topless, smoking, CNBC, headlights on....

Stocks - The Week After Memorial Day $$

Interesting article from Quantifiable Edges $$ that reviews market performance from the Tuesday after Memorial Day through the close on Friday. Since 1983, it's been a bullish week.

I was thinking, hmm... why? Well, when you think about it, the holiday occurs on the last monday of the month. We know that there tends to be a bullish bias in the last day or so of the month through the first few days of the new month due to payroll money being dollar-cost averaged into the market, as well as mutual fund managers buying winning stocks ahead of month-end reporting. (Thanks, Norm Fosback).

Meanwhile, stocks are close to their 50dma, and we could bounce up. We could also see some selling if the 50dma doesn't hold. We've also seen four consecutive weeks where the markets have closed lower. Although, last week we rallied late and it was very close. The market also appears to be in a trading range the past few months.

Cross currents, right?

I remain conservatively invested. Low beta stuff, some oil and some cash. I'm thinking about lightening up and raising cash soon. Really. Will I do it? I have a couple of days to think about it.
***
Might head to Reno tomorrow. You can't believe the weather here. It's usually in the upper 80's this time of year. Today? 60's and cooling off, wind, rain, and snow up in the mountains. Otherwise, I might have gone to Reno today!

The funny thing about the picture, is that many of the casinos have shut down. Fitzgeralds, the Flamingo... gone! I think the California Indian Casinos are killing them!!!

Big Monster Huge Stock Market Day

Today was the biggest one-day move in the DOW since December 1st. For those of us wondering if we would see some follow-through to the downside, it didn't happen.

The market romped today. No other way to say it.

Technically, we are still in the monthly strength window (the first four trading days of the month).

But, the reason du jour from Yahoo Finance is lower oil prices and better employment data. Initial jobless claims for the week ended February 26 totaled 368,000, which is less than the 400,000 that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. There was also some stuff in there about the ISM number and Gaddafi accepting some peace plan from Hugo Chavez.

Seems kind of like a wishy-washy reason du jour for the most part. I'll give credit to Norm Fosback and the monthly-strength thing.

Hope you made a bunch today. Lots of green everywhere.

Rally Rally Rally

• The market is rallying strongly as I type. It doesn't mean the final 2 hours will continue this way, but I had to chuckle at the Yahoo Finance commentary:

Buyers remain in complete control of the action; but one has to wonder just how much sidelined money is actually coming into the market or how many margin calls are giving the market an added lift.

• Their point may be valid.  But it was just last week where the margin calls were working in the other direction and driving the market down!  LOL.
• For those who wondered how the Norm Fosback month end strength game played out, by buying the market at the close of July 27th and selling at the close of August 7th:

QQQQ:  July 27th close:  47.99; August 7th close:  48.31.  Gain:  .6%.

SPY:  July 27th close:  145.11; August 7th close:  147.77.  Gain:  1.8%.

• Easy!

The Sin Neutral Lifestyle

• If Al Gore can live a "carbon neutral" lifestyle by purchasing "carbon credits" to offset his huge energy bills, can one live a "sin neutral" lifestyle by prayin' to the Lord for forgiveness (aka, "sin credits") to offset one's less-than-holy lifestyle?  Just thinking to myself on this one.
• Okay.  Just wait for it.  What?  Oh, the market is down as I type and I think everyone on the planet is waiting for the dip buyers to step in and turn it around.  Isn't that the status quo?  I think we'll see a time where that doesn't happen, so I'm not buying the dips.  Depends on time frames, right?
• Of course, Norm Fosback would tell us that we want to be in at the end of the month through the first few days of the following month if we want to beat the market.  Just saying.
• Our prayers have been answered.  Pizza as a health food.  University of Maryland food chemists said on Monday they had found ways to enhance the antioxidant content of whole-grain wheat pizza dough by baking it longer at higher temperatures and giving the dough lots of time to rise.
• I woke up this morning, and my lower lip is all swollen.  Looks like I went a few rounds with HGH Rocky.  I have no idea why.  I was up a few times at night and everything was ok.  But after the alarm went off, I thought "Hmm, my lower lip kind of hurts."  And it started to swell.  Good grief.
• American Idol results show going to 1-hour. That'd be longer.  As if we needed longer.  I rarely watch the result show, except maybe for the last few minutes to see who gets tossed.  Rarely that. But millions of you do watch it.  Gwen Stefani this week, I believe.    Wind it up.

The Monthly Strength Pattern $$

CNBC mentioned how strong the first trading day of the month has been recently. It's been up six months in a row and thirteen of the last fifteen. It looks to tack on another win today.

I read somewhere that for the past year or so, all of the market gains could have been had by investing only on the first of the month, and being out of the market the rest of the month.

Norm Fosback identified the monthly strength period and holiday trading patterns. I wrote about the Seasonal Timing System trading patterns at the link.

As the saying goes, "You can learn a lot from history."

I, Aye, Eye...

• Some thoughts on the iPhone trademark war between Cisco and Apple? Maybe Apple could call their smartphone the "eye-phone."  Or, the "aye-phone." 
• Congrats to "Norm!" Fosback, for the MLKjr (market holiday) system that has worked once again.  Booyah!  All the while, the Nasdaq and NDX have broken out.  MSFT has broken out, and is about 13% of the NDX.  Of course, looking in the shadows we see some earnings troubles and stock blowups in SAP and AMD, with the earnings flood hitting us next week.  So we can see the potential of what can happen if a stock disappoints.  Probably not today's business, but maybe next week.
• Will there be real-time stock prices to websites?  $100,000 a month?  I wonder if that fee is all inclusive no matter how many eyeballs are checking their quotes?  That'd be great for Yahoo, Google, MSN, et al.
• Justin Timberlake and Cameron Diaz have broken up.  Another Hollywood romance ending?  Shocker!  "We have, in fact, ended our romantic relationship and have done so mutually and as friends with continued love and respect for each other."  Ah, got bored with the sex, I guess.  On to the next customer.
• Simon Cowell of American Idol says Bob Dylan bores him to tears.  I'm not a big fan, either.
• The RSI(2) on the QQQQ is close to 99.  It's 98.77 as I type.  Maybe it'll go above 1.  (LOL).

In Edit: Changed pic to Ricky Ricardo!

The Hamptons Effect

• First, I sold my few remaining mo-mo stocks on the bounce this morning.  Just booked the gains (and a few losses) and moving to cash for now.  Most of them broke down yesterday.  After the bounce this morning, most continued to break down.  Despite what the index showed today, there was more fugly action out there in the small caps and mo-mo names.  Overall, new lows outpaced new highs.  Decliners lead advancers.  Etc. 
• Now all this being said, we are heading towards the end of July and early August, which should see 401(k) adds automatically thrown at stocks.  And Norm Fosback's seasonal method would have us getting long on at the close of friday July 27th, and riding it through the close on Aug 7th.
• Afterhours looks good with Apple's earnings.  We'll see if the bulls can take the momentum past the opening hour.
• I was searching The Google for the "worst month of the year for stocks" and found this from CNN's money site:

For the last 18 years, August has been the worst month of the year for the S&P 500, and the second worst month for the Dow industrials and the Nasdaq composite, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.

Go back further and it's not much better: since 1950, August has been the third worst month of the year for both the Dow and S&P 500 and September has been the worst. That's been true for the Nasdaq as well, since its inception in 1971, according to the Almanac.

The third quarter is typically the worst because of what might be called "the Hamptons effect," meaning, hey, it's summer, and bulls would rather be on the beach than making big changes to their portfolios. Summertime also often is a time many companies reassess the earnings outlook for the rest of the year, which also can pressure stocks.

 

• There is no guarantee that history will repeat.  The column above was from July 2006.  And despite the gloomy outlook at the time, the market has been what *almost* looks like a straight ramp up since.
• MSN says September is the worst month for stocks.
• This one from Reuters says watch out for September and October.
• The Sacramento Bee (via Sign On San Diego) says it's September.
• Investopedia says September, maybe because of folks back from vacation selling stocks and that mutual fund managers are selling losers in the portfolio before the end of the fiscal year end.
• For England's FTSE 100?  September.

Saturday Night Randomosity

• Stocks due for a rally this week, followed by two weeks of down?  That’s what this guy says.  He says this market is lining up perfectly with the 3rd year presidential term pattern.  Got it?
• I went to a Sacramento Mountain Lions game tonight. Yeah, UFL. It was actually fun to watch, and the Omaha Nighthawks came away with a game ending field go at 2 seconds left in the 4th quarter.  The picture is of Daisy from the cheerleaders, the Lady Lions.
• You’ve heard about the Wall Street protests?  Probably not.  It’s a band of rag-tag lefties marching on Evil Capitalism.  It all has the feel of a classic street protest with one exception: It's unclear exactly what the demonstrators want.  That’s the problem.  “Economic Justice” seems to be their cause, but that means taking money away from those of you who work, and cutting these folks a bunch of checks.  Protest on, Garth.
• Oh, and the stock market is in the monthly favorable period, right?  First four days of the month stuff, right Norm Fosback?
• Bank of America is charging $5 a month for you to use your debit card for purchases.  Wells Fargo and Chase charge $3 a month, by the way.  So what’s the plan, close the accounts and go some bank that doesn’t charge the fees?
• And for those who want to invest like Warren Buffett, $BAC is now $6.12 a share.  So, you can get in now at a lower price than when the Buffett deal was announced.

$NFLX, Obama, Debt Ceiling, end of Month

All the focus on the debt ceiling as we approach the end of month period. As you know, the market tends to have a bid under it the last few days of he month and first few days of the next month. Month-end statements, 401(k) dollar cost averaging from paychecks, etc. Doesn't always work, but usually - right, Norm Fosback?

And the debt ceiling stuff last night on TV was ridiculous. Obama started off blaming Bush and threw in some of the usual "clean energy" and taxing the corporations stuff. Does this guy know the unemployment rate is over 9%?

I joked on Twitter last night that Obama was going to talk about the Netflix stock crash last night. I wish he would have, instead of the nonsense about raising taxes. If that GDP number comes in weak, tax hikes are way off the table, right?

Oh, and $NFLX messes with their subscription model just as subscriptions are slowing? Hey, isn't that like a tax hike on folks? And folks are opting out or reducing their plans!

More later. Dog days of summer and all. Same positions as last time.

TGIF Randomosity

• So after the $SPY trade, now what? Have a bunch of cash on the sidelines, so now it gets difficult...


• The stock market crapped out on a very bad jobs number. The market actually rebounded a bit at the end, but who knows if that's excitement and anticipation for earnings season or just folks shutting down ahead of the weekend.


• QE3 by the Fall? Well, with the jobs numbers today, you'd think interest rate hikes may be on hold. But additional grease for the skids?


• Norm Fosback is bullish! And predicting double-digit gains.


• Sports and Politics: Stuck in Gridlock. Kind of funny in that perspective, no? Here we have the NFL and the NBA having labor disputes, while the Republicans and Democrats are having debt and taxes disputes.


• Stargate SG-1 marathon on SyFy. I already did that via Netflix last year!


• So, uh, new iPhone 5 this Fall, eh? Who needs QE3 from the Fed! Apple may create some demand for that new iPhone! I'm sure there are tons of rumors on what the iPhone 5 will look like, and what the tech upgrades will be. We will have to wait and see. At this point, Apple isn't wowing us with their stuff, as Android phones seem to have much more capability. We'll see how Apple counters...

TGIF!

• Holy beta, Batman!  How about some leveraged ETFs?  Our friends at Profunds are going to kick it up a notch and offer leveraged long and short funds.  Hey, if you don't have time to make it to the local Indian casino, why not?  Spicey!
• Memorial Day Weekend!  Well, this is a sentimental weekend for me.  My dad normally was in town this week for the Sacramento Jazz Jubilee.  I usually hung out with him a few days.  It's going to be different this year. 
• The markets?  Well, ol' Norm Fosback's pre-holiday seasonality "system" seems to be working here, eh?  It seems to have a pretty interesting track record.  I think we're just bouncing here and working off some of the oversoldness.  I think folks still have a bullish bent on the market from reading around.  Maybe because they got stuck trying to time the bounce and are hoping to break even.  Not sure.
• TGI-frickin'-F, eh?
• Doesn't it seem like it's been forever since Battlestar Galactica has been on?  And no new episodes until October.  Sure, it'll be here before we know it.  I think Halloween candy might already be on sale at the grocery stores.  In the meantime, the Sci-Fi channel is fillin' up friday with Doctor Who episodes.  Okay, but not the same.

Norm! Seasonal Timing System

Just a reminder of another seasonal timing strategy from Norman Fosback.  I don't know if he's updated it on his website lately, but here is my understanding of it.

End of Month

• Always own equities on the last trading day of each month and first four trading days of each month (the “month-end” period).
• If the next-to-last trading day of the month is anything other than the first trading session of the week, hold equities on that day, too. In other words, own equities on both of the last two trading days of the month except when the next-to-last trading day of the month is the first trading day of the week.
• Also hold equities on the fifth trading day of the month, unless that fifth day is the first day of the week.

Market Holidays

• Own equities on the two trading days before each holiday closing (the “pre-holiday” period).
• However, do not own equities on the second day before a holiday closing if that day happens also to be the first trading day of the week.
• Continue to own equities on the first day after a market holiday closing if that day is also the last trading day of the week. Making Seasonality Even Better Over the years, Monday has been a poor day to be invested in the stock market.

Mark Hulbert at CBS Marketwatch last wrote about Fosback's system in November.  Of course, who knows how it will work out this month or going forward. But it's out there. Something to distract us from the Swine Flu.