Monday, July 14, 2008

Financials Cut Off Market's Nuts

From Yahoo finance: ...the financial sector tumbled 6.1%, marking its largest one-day percent loss in more than eight years. Financials make up a large percentage of the SP500. Maybe around 20%? Something like that. Dividend paying stock mutual funds and ETFs also suffering with the collapsing financials.

The market picks up where it left off last week. Heading into options week, the playbook would favor a strong week especially with last week being so dismal. But all that seems to be off the table as the only thng folks want to do is sell.

Does it feel a lot like 2000 all over again? Sure does. Back then we had the unwinding of the tech bubble. Now we have the unwinding of the housing bubble hitting banks.

I'm still 100% long. I'm overweighting the stronger sectors, which at least cushions the slide a bit. I look around and don't see too much individual suffering at this time. Unemployment has inched up some, but retail spending has recently been stronger. The economy continues to grow slowly. Yes, there are always people hurting and we should do what we can to help them. But I tend to believe that companies are doing okay here. The big hurt is in financials involved in subprimes, and then government that relies on property taxes and an active real estate market to bring in revenues. Oh, and energy prices. Don't get me started on this country's lack of an energy policy.

Doesn't it seem a bit silly looking back that someone making $32,000 a year could go buy a $500,000 house with no money down and a stated-income loan with a 2-year negatively amortized teaser rate? Sheez.

Almost as silly as paying those extreme multiples back in 2000 for tech stocks with no business plans other than adding a "dot com" to their company name.

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