Peanut butter prices are skyrocketing! I knew something was wrong; Costco hasn't had salted peanuts in the shell for a long time.
Kraft is raising peanut butter prices by 40%.
Conagra is raising peanut butter prices by 20%.
The core CPI doesn't include food and energy. But, if the core CPI doesn't include peanut butter, then the core CPI is a bunch of junk. Who can live without peanut butter?
The Black Box may be right after all. Stay tuned.
And this is supposed to be the favorable part of the month!
Happy Halloween!
The Black Box is on a sell signal, but that looks close to being invalidated.
It's not the first time the Black Box has given a signal a little bit ahead of the move. We are also in the favorable season and in the monthly strength period.
I still have some cash, long low-beta stuff, some oil, and some small caps.
My thoughts are that pullbacks should be bought. The Europe stuff seems to be resolved for now, and America is in gridlock through at least the 2012 election -- positives for the market!
Here is a column that wonders how Americans can spend more while incomes are basically flat.
I have a couple of thoughts.
The payroll tax is lowered this year. That's a couple of percent.
Interest rates are lower. That means payments are down on cars, homes, equity loans, and such.
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Wow, Chris Johnson is a Fantasy Football bust. He can't do anything. Last I saw was 5 rushes for 1 yard. Really.
Wow. So, Europe comes up with a deal for Greece. It means that bond holders get a 50% haircut, not including any inflation erosion over the years. But basically $.50 on the $1. I guess you can understand why the bond market took a hit! Consider that in some of the other struggling economies like Spain, Italy, the US, California… Hey we’re not there yet, but it is fuel for thought.
Combine that with a 2.5% GDP that was far above what the folks who are calling for a recession were thinking, and we have a huge day for the markets.
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What a World Series game tonight.
Typing this via the iPad app Pocket Cloud, which lets you control the PC from your iPad. So this is via Windows Live Writer – on the iPad!
Still on a sell signal for the $QQQ
I remain in some cash, low-beta stuff, and some oil.
The market doesn’t seem to want to go down, though. I guess we can give credit to Europe!
Yes, Europe was the reason for the early selloff and for the late rally. “The market is up today because our expectation bar had been set significantly low for today’s European summit, so we were expecting a numberless communiqué, so with that being the base case, we’ve shifted our focus to better-than-expected earnings across the board,” said Art Hogan, equity strategist at Lazard Capital Markets. Whoa, $NFLX! Netflix losing 800,000 subscribers just as the country is embracing web streaming would seem to be a bit of a head scratcher.
Of course, when you have a company that raises prices and divides their offerings into two companies -- one for streaming and one for DVDs, then reneging but keeping prices high, is it any wonder why customers are checking out other options? There are other options available from Amazon, Hulu Plus, Blockbuster, Apple, and Google. Plus, if one wants the latest DVD, there is a Redbox vending machine just a quick drive away. And Redbox videos are $1!
Ultimately, I think it was the price increase that caused folks to look at other options. That's the feedback I've received from friends and family. (So, it must be true!)
Read the link. It is a good overview of what is going on with the company.
Well, this weekend is kind of a last-gasp nice-weekend trip to Reno. The weather over the Sierras will soon turn ugly do I thought I'd take a trip over the hill and bet on some college and NFL games.
Should have stayed at home!
Lots of close losses.
When it comes to gambling I think it is a losing proposition and I come here planning to lose. Mission accomplished! But we all had fun...
The Black Box reiterated a sell signal yesterday. I remain invested in low beta stuff with some cash and oil.
What is holding me back from raising more cash is the time of year, which now has a bullish bias. Of course, we have rallied up sharply from the lows to the top of the trading range.
It seems to me that the economy will continue to grow slowly and that Europe will continue to be an issue. Do you see a way out of the trading range or reason for investor conviction at this point?
Earnings are mixed and former stock leaders are not leading. Which can be trouble.
So I'm thinking the Black Box is going to be right. Again. And that I should raise more cash!
I’m not saying the Black Box is 100% right all the time, but check out the $QQQ:
Again, it’s just one indicator among many and it did miss the early October buy, right?
Google ($GOOG) reported earnings today. Impressive.
…easily surpassed analysts’ expectations, reported that revenue climbed 33 percent and net income rose 26 percent.
…
“When I look back over the last quarter, the word that springs to mind is ‘gangbusters,’ “ Larry Page, Google’s chief executive, said in a call with analysts after the earnings were announced.
…
“The quantification of mobile revenues gives us an indication that Android is cementing Google’s position in mobile advertising,” said Jordan Rohan, an analyst at Stifel Nicolaus. “Google’s ability to diversify away from the parts of its businesses that are maturing is impressive.”
Here we have a company that is really growing gangbusters with the Android phones and tablets, now combined with domination in searching.
Hey, at least it wasn't Europe today!
The market was mixed. A nice pause after yesterday's fireworks.
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Tech earnings will be interesting. Lots of money going into mobile devices.
Last week's key reversal launched the market back up towards the top of the trading range.
Now that we are here, will the market go back down or is this a resumption of the uptrend?
Is "Sell in May" over?
Seems like it, but I wouldn't rule out another headline news event from Europe that brings the market back down close to 1100 again.
My positions are the same...
I just checked ATT, trying upgrade to the iPhone 4S. I have a fat gift card at the ready, so why not?
Well, I bought my iPhone 4 in July 2010.
And the answer is...
Sure. I can get the iPhone 4S 16-gig model, as long as I sign up for a 2-year contract and pay $449 plus an $18 upgrade fee.
Hahahahah. ROTF LMAO.
I'm sure I will share that story with the Verizon store sales staff in July 2011, when I buy the latest Android phone with a 4-inch screen and 4G data service.
I guess I will use the gift card on headphones. Lots of them.
It's kind of sad that the market is driven by what happens in Europe everyday. I suspect that will also ease as we head into earnings season. I don't think the economic news here is horrible, but it is slower than we'd all like to see.
Market seasonality has favored selling in May near a rally high, and buying in September or October, near a retest of the lows.
Did you do that this week? Did you "load the boat" with stocks?
It certainly seems as if we've retested the lows and are now back in an uptrend. Does this carry through until the end of the year or beyond?
I haven't changed my portfolio allocation, and didn't buy at the retest this week. Oops! I will watch how the market performs over the next few weeks and if we venture near the lows again, I will put the sideline cash to work and move from low beta to high beta stocks.
Europe, Greece, or Curtis Painter, this market sucks. $SPY
What is supposed to be monthly strength is just melting away the points on the averages. Everything is ugly.
I remained positioned in some cash, low beta stuff and some oil. The QQQ and VB trade is back in the red again. Lol.
Stocks due for a rally this week, followed by two weeks of down? That’s what this guy says. He says this market is lining up perfectly with the 3rd year presidential term pattern. Got it?
