2009 Guru Predictions

Coming off a horrible 2008, the Gurus are hoping to make a comeback in 2009. In the real world, I'd hope that most of these folks would have some stops in mind in case these picks don't work. Of course, most folks don't trade that way in reality and "hope" that their losses will rebound and they can somehow get even. But that's not what these TV segments are about. These picks usually represent the stocks to buy for the calendar year.

Here are the stocks to own from the Fox Business Block gurus and closing prices on 12/31.

Bulls and Bears

• Gary B. Smith: Fannie Mae (FNM: $.76)
• Tobin Smith: Quanta Services, Inc. (PWR: $19.80)
• Pat Dorsey: WellPoint (WLP: $42.13)
• Eric Bolling: Google (GOOG: $307.65)

Cavuto

• Patricia Powell: 3M Co. (MMM: $57.54)
• Charles Payne: Apple (AAPL: $85.35)
• Adam Lashinsky: Walgreen (WAG: $24.67)
• Matt McCall: iShares High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG: $76.01)

Forbes on Fox

• Evelyn Rusli: URS Corp (URS: $40.77)
• Jack Gage: Energizer (ENR:$54.14)
• John Rutledge: Apple (AAPL: $85.35)
• Victoria Barret: salesforce.com (CRM: $32.01)

Cashin' In

• Jonathan Hoenig: Tokyo Stock Exchange REIT Index (JRE: $21.70)
• Wayne Rogers: Abraxis Bioscience (ABII: $65.92)
• Jonas Max Ferris: WADDELL AND REED FINANCIAL (WDR: $15.46)

My prediction?  I think that the policy of the Fed and stimulus spending from the Obama administration will lead to a rebound in the economy later this year or in 2010.  But that will start to show up in stocks in 2009, as the market starts to discount the future.  I think it's possible that we retest the 2008 lows once again, but that a new bull market will begin.  The first year gains from the bull market will be substantial, so I'm predicting a 20% rise in the SP500 in 2009.

How did 2008 Guru Picks Do?

At the beginning of 2008, I listed stock picks from the gurus on the Fox Business Block. Lets see how their "must own" stocks of 2008 did.

Bulls and Bears:

• Tobin Smith: Emcore (EMKR $15.30 to $1.30)
• Pat Dorsey: American Express (AXP $52.02 to $18.55)
• Gary B Smith: Bank Of America (BAC $41.26 to $14.08)
• Scott Bleier: Marteck Biosciences (MATK $29.58 to $30.31)
• Patricia Powell: Potash of Saskatchewan (POT $143.96 $73.22)

Cavuto:

• Gary Kaltbaum: Oracle (ORCL $22.58 to $17.73)
• Charles Payne: Washington Mutual (WM $13.61 to $0)
• Jill Schlesinger: BLDRS Emerging Markets 50 ADR Index (ADRE $55.04 to $27.31)
• Peter Schiff: streetTRACKS Gold Shares (GLD $82.46 to $86.52)

Cashin' In:

• Wayne Rogers: BE Aerospace (BEAV $52.90 to $7.69)
• Matt McCall: CNH Global (CNH $65.82 to $15.60)
• Jonas Max Ferris: Nakoma Absolute Return Fund (NARFX $23.06 to $22.06)
• Jonathan Hoenig: CurrencyShares Mexican Peso (FXM $91.98 to $73.81 )

There you go.  Peter Schiff wins with GLD, followed by Scott Bleier with MATK.  Nobody else finished in the green with their pick.  Do you think you should follow their must own stocks for 2009?

In Edit: It's only fair to list my prediction for 2008. Yikes.

I'm 100% long. The Presidential Election Year is normally a good one for stocks.  Years ending in 8 are usually good.  So despite today's fear and gloom slamming stocks, I think we're heading higher.  Buying opportunity!

My prediction?  SP500:  1675.   Continued slow growth, low unemployment, low inflation, and no recession.  Housing will continue to slide, but housing inventories will begin to come down as new construction continues to slow and people decide to just live in their homes and make their monthly payments.