Tsunami Watch in Hawaii

Update: Added Grace Lee KGMB KHNL pic (from http://bit.ly/c1f6R4 feed).  LOL.  (Update: Hey, I recognize her finally, she was a news anchor here in Sacramento for Channel 3 a few years back.  I think Channel 3was always sending her up to the mountains to report on snow storms. No wonder she left!)

Update: Previous link is buffering.  Another live webcam here: http://bit.ly/arJKP1

A lot of the webcams are struggling with the web traffic.

Watching the tsunami watch on Hawaii news here http://bit.ly/c1f6R4

Maybe if we’re watching for it, it won’t happen.  Lets hope that there are no tsunamis.

Saturday Randomosity

• This weekend finds market sentiment firmly in the huh-I’m-not-sure camp.  $$  This week’s II survey results see the “Correction” camp shrink from the multi-decade high of 39.7% to 35.6%. The bulls now take the lead with 41.1% and the bears trail with just 23.3%. To put this in perspective, it is higher than the Bull/Bear low we saw at the start of this month but it is not as high as we saw in January. So middle of the road, basically - and unfortunately, without much edge.
• In general, I think investing based on taxes makes for lousy returns.  However, that isn’t stopping folks from fearing higher taxes in the near future and changing their investment strategies.  Getting ready for higher taxes:

The Great Tax Dodge is under way already.

The how and which of tax increases are still unclear. But there is no question about the if: Higher taxes are coming.

Fearing that tax-code changes could slam fortunes large and small, investors aren't sitting still. In the first three weeks of February, they poured twice as much money into tax-free municipal-bond funds as into all foreign-equity funds combined. At Fidelity Investments and Charles Schwab Corp., account holders are converting taxable Individual Retirement Accounts into tax-free Roth IRAs at quadruple the pace of last year. And more executives are passing on deferred compensation in favor of cash today, tax experts say.

(Picture is of Carrie Underwood)

• I used to be in 1st place in my fantasy basketball league.  Two off-again, on-again injuries and one bad trade later, I’m in 4th place and losing 7-1 this week to the #1 team. Ouch.
• I see a bunch of links (on a daily basis) to the latest Paul Krugman columns.  Bleh.  I don’t even bother reading them.  I just think that he is in constant spin mode for his political points of view.  More power to him, and maybe he’s the greatest thing since Cheez Whiz, but no thanks.  Pass.
• How to Stay Awake During Obama Speeches: Play Bullshit Bingo.
• Mustard seeds for deflation.  When I look at the coming deflationary cycle, the pending growth of wage deflation plays a very integral part of that deflationary cycle. I'd like to highlight some thoughts on where/why we will see wage deflation to provide a visual of why wage deflation is inevitable.
• Did you read that up to 23,000 folks in Brevard County Florida will lose their jobs after space shuttle retirement.  Ouch.
• Fannie Mae reports $15.2 billion loss.  Heck, I spent almost that much at a Kings game recently.  Have you seen the prices at the arenas?  Fannie Mae reported a net loss of $15.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2009 ... For the full year of 2009, Fannie Mae reported a net loss of $72.0 billion...

Verizon on the Black Box

More Black Box fun with $VZ.  Here is Verizon on the Black Box daily. I don’t own any but have been thinking about it.  I’ve been watching this one in anticipation of cracking into $T’s iPhone monopoly.  Who hasn’t?  Interesting below $30ish, eh?

I wanted to show the Oops in November 2009.  The Black Box is never to be used as a trading system.  It’s just another opinion.  It also is not a system that buys break outs.  It tries to pick bottoms or inflection points.  It gets them wrong from time to time, because predicting the future is risky business no matter what kind of Black Box you use.  (I want to say this with every chart, just to emphasize). 

Verizon on the Weekly looks pretty murky, though.  After the Black Box gave a sell signal in October of 2007, it hasn’t given a buy.  I would surmise that the constant anticipation and rejection of iPhone availability is hampering an attempt to move to the upside.  And now we have to wonder about Apple’s iPad, too.  Is Apple going to forever be in harmony with ATT or will they branch out to other carriers? 

I’ve received some feedback on the recent Black Box entries.  Thank you for the comments. I have fun looking at stocks and sharing my thoughts.   Technology makes the world go ‘round.

Finally a Friday!

• Friday. Last trading day of February. 401(k) adds ready to pile in?  $$  At least for the first few days, eh Norm Fosback?
• “It’s gold, Jerry! Gold!” Kim Yu-Na.
• UCLA beat Oregon State, but the Pac-10 is pretty weak heading into March Madness.
• Former Governor Jerry Brown wants to take a look at the books of health care companies.  The California state attorney general's office said Thursday that it had subpoenaed financial records of California's seven largest health insurance companies as part of an investigation into whether they illegally raised customer premiums and denied payment of legitimate claims.
• Hello, can of worms.  What’s the goal?  To put price controls on health insurance?  Gee, price controls always work, eh?
• Price controls create man-made disasters.  (An article after the 2008 flooding in Iowa).
• I’m going to show more Black Box charts. None today, as nothing much has changed.  The Black Box says to stay out of the market.  I’m still long, though. 

Thursday Night Randomosity

• The market had a real chance to hurt the bulls, but the late day rally was positive.  $$
• Marketwatch blamed job losses and European debt.  Investors received evidence of just the opposite as the Labor Department said that weekly jobless claims unexpectedly surged last week by 22,000 to 496,000, their highest level in over three months.
• CA faces over a $20B deficit. Meanwhile, in more important matters, the Assembly passed a bill declaring a cuss-free week. Amid the ongoing — and occasionally tense — debate over how to clean up California's budget mess, lawmakers have taken time out to tidy something else almost as unmanageable: our language. This morning, the Assembly approved a ceremonial resolution turning the first week of March into "Cuss Free Week."
• I work for a living, so I missed the health care summit.  Looks like everyone agreed to disagree, and it’s off to raise some funds for the November elections!
• More oil in North Dakota!  We need the stuff.  Drill baby, drill.
• I think the top 24 in American Idol are some of the worst ever.  But they all sing way better than I can.  Liked Ellen initially, but now she seems out of place.
• I feel bad for the family and friends of the person killed training the Killer Whale.  It is a wild animal, you know.  I generally feel sad for caged up animals.  I’m glad they’re sparing the orca. "We have every intention of continuing to interact with this animal, though the procedures for working with him will change," SeaWorld wrote in its blog Thursday.

Apple on the Black Box

Lets poke some fun at my Black Box trading system with $AAPL stock! $$  Remember, this is not trading advice.  It is more a showcase of things that affect my thought process. For better or for worse…

• Here is $AAPL on the Black Box daily:

• Here is $AAPL on the Black Box weekly:

• The weekly looks a bit ominous.

• No green arrow, but I think there’s a buy signal on her.

Toyota Stock Thoughts

• I don’t know if $TM is keeping any secrets, but it seems as if the government is raking the company over the coals. Is the stock a buy? $$
• The first car I bought was a Toyota Corolla.  It was my “go mobile.” I even bought the hatchback (ooh, sexy Muck!) so I could throw my bike in there and take off for the mountains or coast for some cycling. It was extremely reliable and I rarely spent any money to fix the darn thing.  Was it the sexiest car on the planet?  Did I have race queens lining up in costumes loving me by proxy through my hot car?  No. 
• Why is the US government after $TM? Is this because Toyota isn’t a union shop? Is this because the US owns General Motors? Is this because this is an election year and politicians are grabbing at straws trying to gain your vote come November?
• I haven’t watched Glenn Beck (not pictured) today (or ever, actually), but I know folks who are big fans and emailing me what Glenn Beck had to say.  I don’t know the scope of his words in their entirety, or if I’m reflecting his views correctly, but he seems to think it’s a big government plot to discredit the car company.

GLENN: Isn't congress the owner with the American people of Toyota's two big competitors?

GLENN: So isn't this like the board of directors of General Motors calling Toyota to testify in front of them on television and demanding that they explain why their cars are so bad?

• Yeah, well it’s all priced into the stock, efficient markets and all.  So lets look at the Black Box view of the $TM chart!

• I think Toyota will get interesting the closer it gets to $60.  If the Congress keeps the pressure on and the overall market is weak, it could get near there.  Of course, with employment near 10%, maybe car companies have some room to fall even without recalls.  But, I don’t think people who like Toyota’s are suddenly going to go buy an American car.
• Oh, my first car met its demise when somebody drove into my 8-year old car and rendered it completely useless.
• Yes, another race queen picture.