Saturday, February 27, 2010

Saturday Randomosity

  • This weekend finds market sentiment firmly in the huh-I’m-not-sure camp.  $$  This week’s II survey results see the “Correction” camp shrink from the multi-decade high of 39.7% to 35.6%. The bulls now take the lead with 41.1% and the bears trail with just 23.3%. To put this in perspective, it is higher than the Bull/Bear low we saw at the start of this month but it is not as high as we saw in January. So middle of the road, basically - and unfortunately, without much edge.
  • In general, I think investing based on taxes makes for lousy returns.  However, that isn’t stopping folks from fearing higher taxes in the near future and changing their investment strategies.  Getting ready for higher taxes:

image The Great Tax Dodge is under way already.

The how and which of tax increases are still unclear. But there is no question about the if: Higher taxes are coming.

Fearing that tax-code changes could slam fortunes large and small, investors aren't sitting still. In the first three weeks of February, they poured twice as much money into tax-free municipal-bond funds as into all foreign-equity funds combined. At Fidelity Investments and Charles Schwab Corp., account holders are converting taxable Individual Retirement Accounts into tax-free Roth IRAs at quadruple the pace of last year. And more executives are passing on deferred compensation in favor of cash today, tax experts say.

(Picture is of Carrie Underwood)

  • I used to be in 1st place in my fantasy basketball league.  Two off-again, on-again injuries and one bad trade later, I’m in 4th place and losing 7-1 this week to the #1 team. Ouch.
  • image I see a bunch of links (on a daily basis) to the latest Paul Krugman columns.  Bleh.  I don’t even bother reading them.  I just think that he is in constant spin mode for his political points of view.  More power to him, and maybe he’s the greatest thing since Cheez Whiz, but no thanks.  Pass.
  • How to Stay Awake During Obama Speeches: Play Bullshit Bingo.
  • Mustard seeds for deflationWhen I look at the coming deflationary cycle, the pending growth of wage deflation plays a very integral part of that deflationary cycle. I'd like to highlight some thoughts on where/why we will see wage deflation to provide a visual of why wage deflation is inevitable.
  • Did you read that up to 23,000 folks in Brevard County Florida will lose their jobs after space shuttle retirement.  Ouch.
  • Fannie Mae reports $15.2 billion loss.  Heck, I spent almost that much at a Kings game recently.  Have you seen the prices at the arenas?  Fannie Mae reported a net loss of $15.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2009 ... For the full year of 2009, Fannie Mae reported a net loss of $72.0 billion...

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