Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Monday, November 29, 2010
Home Sick Randomosity
- Hello, market reversal! After starting out the day in a Tryptophan stupor, the market reversed and closed near the highs. Now we’re heading into the end of the month strength period (we shall see). Everyone started out worried that the Ireland bailout wasn’t enough, but then decided they couldn’t pass up on the Cyber Monday deals on Wall Street once the Dow was down 160.
I remain 100% long. Still watching but not finding a compelling reason to bail. I know you want to walk away from a winning slot machine while you still have a bunch of credits, but not sure this is anything other than a normal, healthy, pullback.
- Of course, I could reallocate at any moment, but haven’t yet.
- Picture is of Jamie Chung.
- Did you listen to the AudioBoo where I talked about the iPad app Bluefire Reader? Checking out library books on the iPad! For free! Pretty good reader, too. Works as you’d expect all ebook readers to work. I checked out a book this afternoon from my local library.
- Yes. Home sick. Good grief. Achoo.
- China is distancing itself from ally North Korea and has indicated a willingness to accept Korean unification under the South’s control, according to a U.S. diplomatic cable provided to the Guardian by WikiLeaks.org.
- I think China is all about economic expansion. I bet North Korea falls with new leadership relatively soon. There is no reason that a good dose of capitalism can’t help out a struggling and starving North Korea. But it will take time, patience, education, and money.
- President Obama proposes a Federal pay freeze. The freeze, which would require congressional approval, would affect about two million workers in 2011 and 2012 and save just $5 billion, a tiny fraction of the current $1.3 trillion annual budget deficit. The GOP has called for much bigger reductions in federal spending and has specifically targeted the federal work force. Well, not much.
- Why am I not watching Football yet? Well, I’m in a few fantasy leagues. In the two that matter most, I am losing by razor thin margins. Two weeks ago I was the 2nd highest scoring team and lost. Last week I lost by .5 points. This week I tied but lost the tie breaker. Basically killing that league. In the 2nd league that matters, I am the 3rd highest scoring team of 16 teams, but can’t win the weekly matchups and look to be out of the playoff picture. Again, I’m the 2nd highest scoring team this week, and losing. LOL.
Sunday, November 28, 2010
Friday, November 26, 2010
Stock Market: Thanksgiving Week Sucks!
Time to update the Stock Traders Almanac. Thanksgiving week sucks. Send Jeff Hirsch a memo. 
Was it North Korea?
Was it Chinese inflation?
Was it Ireland or Portugal?
Was it record low temperatures?
Was it those morons waiting in line all week for Black Friday sales?
Was it a stiff elbow to President Obama's head?
Was it something I said?
Well, just like last year, the day after Thanksgiving was a sell off. On very light volume, but it all counts.
Next week comes the end of month and new month strength. Don't tell me that's a Fail, too!
History doesn't often repeat itself, and sometimes it doesn't even rhyme!
It isn't the end of the world. Tomorrow is another day.
***
At the local Indian casino. Playing the slots. Max coins. Gimme the progressive, baby!
Picture is a "Korean Race Queen.". LOL
Thursday, November 25, 2010
Happy Thanksgiving and Jessica Biel Randomosity!
I hope everyone has a Happy Thanksgiving!
- Last night I watched "Powder Blue," where Jessica Biel plays a stripper and ... Blah, blah, blah. It is an Indie movie, not bad, but she plays a flippin' stripper. Five stars.
- People like to procrastinate. Trending topic right now is how to cook a turkey.
- The Truth about Market Timing Well, an opinion. You know my thoughts if you listened to the AudioBoos. But the reality is that fear and greed exist and human nature won't change.
- Other reasons to be thankful today? Movies starring Jessica Biel as a stripper.
- Your paycheck is about to shrink. This is the expiration of the making work pay tax credit. Yikes. Add 'em up. With increasing taxes, expiring tax cuts, and rising health care costs, the January paychecks are going to be under a little pressure.
- Portugal and Spain next. Well, not exactly a secret at this point.
- SPOILER ALERT: Jessica Biel plays a stripper!
- Today is a day where we think about what gives us meaning in our lives and what we are thankful for. But it is also a day to think about the health and welfare of others. Please help out your local food bank and make sure folks aren't going hungry.
- Happy Thanksgiving, Enjoy the day!
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Politicians Gone Wild
Of course he should go to jail.
The jury found Mr. DeLay knowingly funneled $190,000 in corporate donations to fellow Republicans running for the Texas legislature in 2002, violating state rules that ban companies from contributing to candidates' campaigns.
He was convicted on one count of money laundering, which carries a maximum prison sentence of 99 years, and one count of conspiracy to commit money laundering, which has a penalty of up to 20 years.
Prosecutors said they haven't yet decided whether to seek a prison term; sentencing is tentatively set for Dec. 20.
What is missing from our politicians? Honesty. Integrity.
Whether it’s Tom DeLay or Charlie Rangel, these folks need to be held accountable to those of us who vote for them. Who trusts anything anyone says anymore?
This comes as we’re seeing crackdowns on Insider Trading on Wall Street.
Please don’t tell me we are a society of liars and cheats. If we don’t have honesty and integrity, all is lost.
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
The Global Imbalance Shuffle
Add "global imbalances" to the list of things we are supposed to be worried about.
And as China's surplus builds, nations like the United States that are running trade deficits also face risks. Consistently consuming more goods and services than the nation produces means the country needs to finance that deficit by selling assets, such as U.S. Treasuries, to their overseas trading partners.
"Eventually, the rest of the world will refuse to lend to us the money we need to keep consuming and then we'll go through a very tough recession," said Jay Bryson, global economist with Wells Fargo Securities.
If your list of worries isn't growing, you're just not paying attention to the news headlines.
If I sound cynical, it is because it's all getting a bit thick.
Blame North Korea or the Fed?
The low-hanging fruit "reason du Jour" for the stock market action is North Korea shelling South Korea. 
But look a little further up the tree, and see what the Fed said.
Yes, a sluggish economy though 2011. So for those looking for inflation, they may have to wait a bit longer should the Fed's prediction come true. This means interest rates will remain low. This means tax hikes have to be off the table. This means home prices won't be going up and could continue to fall. This means unemployment will remain stubbornly high and there will be no pressure to raise wages, fighting for labor resources.
But it does mean slow and moderate growth. It could mean continued profit growth on Wall Street. It could mean a stock market that inches upwards.
Meanwhile, rogue nations do what rogue nations do. And every day we should thank our lucky stars that we live in the USA.
What is going on in the Korean peninsula will settle down and those selling because of the shelling will buy back in at higher prices.
But it does seem to have wrecked the Thanksgiving week stock pattern. Unless there is a huge rebound tomorrow and Friday.
Monday, November 22, 2010
Monday Market Review
This is the market today per Yahoo Finance:
A loss of excitement for Ireland's financial aid request left the stock market to drop more than 1%, but technical support provided a base for a rebound that helped the broader market slash its loss and the Nasdaq Composite stage a nice gain.
We’re in Thanksgiving week, so the pattern is a rally Tuesday through Friday. But… This market didn’t sell off in September or October, as the historical pattern. Who knows? I think we’ll continue to see a light-volume retest until we go back and retest the lows from the move down last week. Unfortunately, I think we’re due for a frustrating trading range.
I remain long, but plan on reducing beta should we rally lightly into Friday.
I also plan on voting for Bristol Palin. Just because!
Sunday, November 21, 2010
Thanksgiving Week and the Stock Market
Thanksgiving week tends to be good for the market.
Here is a link to CXO that shows the history of the stock market before and after the Thanksgiving holiday.
Almost seems too easy. Do you think we will be close to historical averages this week?
Sunday Afternoon
Heading into the holiday week, folks will be more concerned about holiday travel, turkey and spending time with family than they are about economic reports. But the markets are still open Monday through Wednesday and part of Friday. It all counts. It's all for real.
Looks like Ireland is asking for a bailout. But it's not over. Italy, Spain and Portugal are all having problems. Oh, then there is the US debt. Nobody wants to cut spending, but it is as if the world's pocketbooks are empty.
***
Missed most of the NFL today. But I have the rear-end firmly planted on the sofa for tonights Eagles-Giants game!
Friday, November 19, 2010
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
Inflation and the Wayback Machine
Inflation is the lowest since 1957.
So, the Fed is targeting 4% inflation, right? The Fed is also trying to keep interest rates down by their QE2, buying treasuries.
No matter what happens, they can claim they hit one of their goals. The only way they fail is if inflation exceeds 4%. Then they'd have high inflation and higher interest rates.
Stocks pretty flat so far today.
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Global Worries du Jour
Another bad day in the markets as we appear headed to the 50dma. 
Today they blame global worries. From European debt to Chinese inflation, there seems to be something for everyone not to like.
Of course, I made the right call last week but didn't do enough about it. No matter what the system is, the final decision on what to do, click buy or sell, is always subjective.
Always.
Monday, November 15, 2010
In a Nutshell...
Today's market in a nutshell from the Bloomberg iPad app:
Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how'd ya like the play?
Wall of worry stuff piling up, and late day selling joins the dog pile.
My thought is that the correction is alive and well. No change from previous view.
***
I went to the local Indian casino again tonight. Watched the MNF game as the Eagles scored early and often to beat the redskins in DC. And came home with a little extra cha-ching. Nice.
The Beatles, iTunes and Pong
The Beatles coming to iTunes is like Pong coming to the XBOX 360.
Maybe some folks think it's great.
Maybe some folks already ripped their Beatles CDs years ago. I mean, hello? Who wants to spend another 99-cents for songs that many have already paid for on records, 8-tracks, cassettes, and CDs. Another 99-cents for the new format?
Somebody in a board room somewhere is laughing at us. Not with us. At us. Charging 99-cents for the same thing we have already bought multiple times before!
Maybe 99-cents for the Glee cast singing a Beatles song. I get that. Who doesn't want to hear Santana rockin' "I Want to Hold Your Hand?"
But John and Paul? Again?
Nothing against the Fab Four or Pong. All pioneers.
Sellers Coming in Late–Bad Sign!
Well, the economic news was mostly good today. But when sales hit in the last hour, you know the rally is in trouble.
Stocks faltered in the final hour of trade to finish the day with a fractional loss. The slide came in the face of leadership from financials and some upbeat retail sales data.
Financials spent the entire session out in front of the broader market. At its best level the sector was up 1.6% as banks caught a bid and consumer finance plays attracted support following the release of their latest monthly card metrics. Financials failed to hold their gains, though, as sellers reclaimed control of broader market action in late trade.
Today was a perfect day to lighten up, but I didn’t do it. I would expect similar action, where the hardest selling is in the last hour, should we be in correction mode.
***
In a fantasy football league where I can do no wrong and have Michael Vick going tonight, I keep being outscored by whoever I’m playing. Yeah. Whoever I play has their “career” game, and I end up losing. I think that league is toast, yet it is my strongest team. Luck of the draw.
Sunday, November 14, 2010
Who Needs Stock Charts?
Throw away the technical analysis book; all you need is Google's search metrics.
The researchers found the search activity on a particular company name increased in tandem with increased trading activity of the company stock as a whole - whether the stock price went up or went down. “Increasing transaction volumes of stocks coincide with an increasing search volume and vice versa,” the study authors wrote.
“Thus, one can conclude that search volume reflects the present attractiveness of trading a stock. But it seems that neither buying transactions nor selling transactions are preferred when one detects an increased volume,” the study said.
There you go. The increased search activity means the stock is going to go either up or down. Nice that it narrows it down.
Saturday, November 13, 2010
$14B of one-time Checks
Here we go again. Congress will try to send $250 one-time checks to Social Security recipients at a cost of $14B.
This is because inflation is so low that there is no cost of living increase added to Social Security this year.
I'm not 100% against this gesture. Heck, seniors could use that for one-time expenses or holiday purchases. But it isn't the kind of stimulus that creates long-term spending plans. And long-term spending and risk taking we need to turn the economy around.
It is what it is. Folks will use and spend the money. Then we're back to where we are now.
Meanwhile, it delays and postpones any discussion of President Obama's deficit reduction committee.
Friday, November 12, 2010
The Friday Slide
I'm at a very crowded $SBUX with the iPad, watching stocks fall because of ... Well, any excuse to end the rally for now. Officially?
I'm glad that my patience with the black box to wait for confirming signs earlier this week worked out a little. Oh, I'm taking a hit over the last two days but it could've been worse. And it shows that the mechanical black box is not an off-on switch, and benefits greatly by adding (gasp) subjective analysis of price and volume action.
Sometimes the Friday selling can be met with Monday buying as folks settle down over the weekend and realize that its not quite the end of the world.
And no one here at Starbucks seems to be too worried.
***
Amazing the number of folks with wireless devices here. I think I have the only iPad, but others with Apple MacBooks and other net books.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Veteran’s Day Market Randomosity
Well, $CSCO weighed on the market today. Maybe this is the catalyst that causes the pause. I still think we’re heading for a correction or consolidation. As I mentioned in the AudioBoo yesterday, nothing too dire, just a frustrating back and forth for a bit.
- Nothing to spill your iced tea over. But if you do, this Vietnamese coffee shop girl will be there for the quick refill.
- So, about that Cisco: "To have a major tech bellwether warning like this is very concerning for the market, especially considering that Cisco gets a lot of their revenues from exports," said Jeffrey Sica, president and chief investment officer at SICA Wealth Management. He said that exports have been seen as a big driver for U.S. companies. "It was somewhat of a shock to the market," Mr. Sica said.
- President Obama open to extending tax cuts for the rich. A senior adviser to the president, David Axelrod, told the Huffington Post Wednesday that temporarily extending tax cuts for the wealthy appears to be the only way to get support for permanently extending the breaks for the middle class. That admission reflects the new political climate now that Republicans control the House. "We have to deal with the world as we find it," Mr. Axelrod told the Huffington Post.
- Hey, the cruise ship passengers are back in port! At least they were provided with free drinks. And… Miami-based Carnival Cruise Lines, a unit of the world's largest cruise line, Carnival Corp said passengers from the disabled ship would receive a full refund and reimbursement for transportation costs, as well as a complimentary future cruise of equal value.
- So, to reduce the national debt, “shared sacrifice” needed. Have you read the mix of tax hike proposals, spending cuts, and rising the retirement age? Will any political party heading into the 2012 election take this seriously? DOA.
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
My Next eBook
I bought the George W. Bush book "Decision Points."
It's next, after I finish "Koufax."
Bought it on the Barnes and Noble site, for the Nook app on the iPad.
I have been reading the blogs for the instant talking points from folks who probably haven't even read the book. LOL.
Wednesday Blockquote Randomosity
Looks to me like the metals bubble may be ending. Anyway, when I did the AudioBoo on Monday, the reason the market sold off because of European Sovereign Debt worries. Today’s rally? Well, from the WSJ:
U.S. stocks erased their losses to finish in positive territory, as investors weighed an improving domestic economy against heightened global concerns.
So there you have it. Yesterday’s concern is today’s, “Eh.” I remain 100% invested, but the market does look like it could pull back here. Black box still on a sell, but now the timing may be right.
iPad’s first real rival? The Samsung Galaxy Tab.
After seven months of unchallenged prominence, Apple's hot-selling iPad now has its first credible competitor in the nascent market for multitouch consumer tablet computers: the Samsung Galaxy Tab.
The Tab is being introduced over the next week by three major U.S. wireless phone carriers at $400 with a cellular data contract, or at $600 with cellular capability but no contract.
…
7”
7-inches of screaming fury. We shall see. My gut feeling here is that it doesn’t sell as well as the iPad. Not that I’m an Apple snob, but bigger is better. Anything smaller than the iPad’s 9.7-inches of screaming fury can be done on a smartphone, er, iPhone.
Okay, I’m a little bit of an Apple snob.
Miami Dolphins bench Chad Henne, go with Chad Pennington.
Henne was ``disappointed'' when Sparano delivered the news, which came as a shocking development Wednesday. The coach moved his news conference to earlier in the day to deliver his decision publicly before reporters were scheduled to enter the locker room for access to players.
``After making long evaluation on all details involved, what I've decided to do here, this week, Chad Pennington is going to be the quarterback,'' Sparano said. ``I took a lot of things into consideration. I weight an awful lot of options out.
``This is not an indictment on Chad Henne. This is not an indictment on his future. He has come two-fold from where he was, but at this particular time, it's something I feel like I need to do for our football team.''
Crap. And I have two Chad Henne jerseys (orange and teale)! Well, I bet the offense improves with the veteran Pennington. Until he gets hurt…
Lou Dobbs to join Fox Business Network.
Former CNN news anchor Lou Dobbs has joined the Fox Business Network and will host and develop a daily television show starting in 2011, Fox said on Wednesday.
Dobbs, 65, also will appear on a variety of other Fox Business Network programs as an analyst and commentator on the financial news of the day.
Which show gets the boot at FBN?
Monday, November 08, 2010
$600B of QE2 on the Wall, $600B of QE2...
So Kevin Warsh doubts the $600B QE2 will work but he voted for it. $$
Sweet.
Why would you go on record saying something like that?
You think Bernanke has a conversation with Warsh about this?
Gold Above $1400
Gold above $1400, and I missed it! But check out the ads on this web site. You think they'd write a negative article on gold? $$
iPad App: Economy
Economy for iPad is a very nice consolidated place to find all of the economic statistics.
I know the information is on the web, but this is a nice widget to keep track of all the numbers.
#27: Ballmer and Gates Sell some $MSFT, Sarah Palin Dresses Down Bernanke, Broadband Gap Between Rich and Poor, Wade Phillips Fired!
Sunday, November 07, 2010
Contrarian Indicators, Part 2
Uh oh. I don't like to see this kind of confidence.
"The wind is at our backs in terms of the economy, and all the building blocks are set for stocks to move higher," said Timothy Ghirskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Asset Management. "Equities seem to be the asset class of choice, given the low yields on bonds, and the Fed is also encouraging more money into the stock market."
Sunday Night Bernanke Bucks Randomosity
Stocks, NFL bets, Keith Olbermann, and lots of other stuff. 
- Asian stocks up! China stocks rose, led by developers and automakers, amid speculation capital inflows will increase on U.S. quantitative easing and the central government will succeed in boosting domestic consumption.. In other words, a lot of that $600B in Bernanke Bucks will end up over there.
- I hit two 3-team parlays today. 6-1 each, can't complain. But if I had combined them on a 6-team parlay, I think that pays 40-1. Whoa. Only nail-biter was taking the Raiders. Phew.
- Oil prices move higher. Good news and bad news. The economy is improving and increasing demand, but Bernanke is reducing the value of the dollar. What really gets the credit for oil prices increasing? Oh, and who gets hit here? Consumers!
- Keith Olbermann back on MSNBC Tuesday. This ends the wild speculation that Olbie will be taking over the Dallas Cowboys head coaching job. Once Wade is fired.
- Wasn't it ridiculous how often Wade Phillips was fired by NBC tonight? Yes, the Cowboys suck. But good grief.
- If the voters in Alaska want Murkowski, they should get Murkowski. Enough of this foolishness.
Saturday, November 06, 2010
#26: Election Review, Tea Party Energizes GOP Base, Ben Bernanke Throws Kitchen Sink (and $600B) at Economy, Gold-Inflation-Etc, Stock Market Election Year Pattern Holds!
Contrarian Indicators, Part 1
With the 2010 election in the rear-view mirror, here was a glaring contrarian indicator.
Yes, they managed to do it again.
Keep this in mind when things look their gloomiest or brightest. Keep your seatbelt on!
Wednesday, November 03, 2010
Tuesday, November 02, 2010
November in the Stock Market
The market has had a great September and October. But what about November? Mark Hulbert looks at The big mo:
The question for investors now is: Does the stock market’s impressive gain over the last two months tell us anything about what November is likely to have in store?
Fortunately, yes: There is some modest statistical evidence that a strong September-October combination increases the odds of a good November as well.
Here’s the data, based upon all September-October returns for the Dow over the last 114 years. Consider first those occasions since the late 1800s when these two months produced a gain; in November of those years, the Dow gained 1.2%.
Overbought? Yes. Is the momentum likely to continue? Yes. But, as like Hulbert says, the number is an average and thus there are numbers above and below the actual average rate.
***
Yes, still up watching election coverage. The media has called the CA Senate race for Boxer, but with 22% of polls reporting, Fiorina is up by a handful. I dunno. Must be some Boxer Wave coming that’s not showing up in the numbers.
Election Night
I think the election went as expected. Maybe a few races here or there went one way or another unexpectedly, but the results are that the Republicans now run the House of Representatives and the Democrats have a smaller majority in the Senate. The GOP also picked up some governorships and some seats in statehouses around the country.
I’ll be up for a few following Twitter and other blogs, with Fox News on in the background.
The stock market rallied nicely today. Now we will see if tomorrow is a sell the news day, or if we go up because things went as expected with no major surprises. I remain 100% long. I am somewhat worried of a correction coming, but the election year pattern seems to be playing out.
Monday, November 01, 2010
Back from Las Vegas Thoughts
It was pretty crazy for Halloween. Lot of folks dressed up both Saturday and Sunday. For all the scary costumes, there were some very clever ones. One guy was dressed up as Bob’s Big Boy (not pictured). That was my favorite, maybe because of sentimental reasons. As a kid, my dad was paid once a month. And once a month, we went to Bob’s Big Boy. So here’s this guy dressed up in checkered overalls, and it felt like home.
And then for women, I think I have never seen so many slutty costumes. They look like strippers.
Not that I’m complaining, mind you. Whoa, Nellie.
This was a trip with no shows or field trips. Just lots of sports betting, slot playing, and people watching.
Feels like the stock market is where it wants to be at pre-election. We’ve been dancing around here for the last couple of weeks. Lets see how it breaks after Tuesday. We have early month strength and the election pattern working for us. We have a weary trend in need of a correction and the Black Box sell signals working against us.
My election prediction: Republicans gain 703 House seats and 114 Senate seats.
It’s a wave, er, Tsunami. Expect the unexpected.