Tuesday, November 02, 2010

November in the Stock Market

The market has had a great September and October. But what about November? Mark Hulbert looks at The big mo:

The question for investors now is: Does the stock market’s impressive gain over the last two months tell us anything about what November is likely to have in store?

Fortunately, yes: There is some modest statistical evidence that a strong September-October combination increases the odds of a good November as well.

Here’s the data, based upon all September-October returns for the Dow over the last 114 years. Consider first those occasions since the late 1800s when these two months produced a gain; in November of those years, the Dow gained 1.2%.

Overbought? Yes. Is the momentum likely to continue? Yes.  But, as like Hulbert says, the number is an average and thus there are numbers above and below the actual average rate.

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Yes, still up watching election coverage.  The media has called the CA Senate race for Boxer, but with 22% of polls reporting, Fiorina is up by a handful. I dunno. Must be some Boxer Wave coming that’s not showing up in the numbers.

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