TGIF, Kamala Harris, Netflix, Taco Bell...

• Looks to me like Kamala Harris will be the eventual winner of the Democratic Primary.
• One worrying economic sign reared up this morning, as the Chicago PMI falls into contraction.  The PMI fell to 49.7, the lowest levels since January, 2017.  Readings under 50 are a sign of contracting conditions.   The ISM number will come out Monday, and we shall see if that confirms.
• Is Netflix thinking about adding an advertising tier?  Ugh!  I hate ads!  I can't remember the last time I watched anything on real TV, other than sports.  Even then, sometimes I record the game and give it about a 30 minute head start, then start watching and fast-forwarding through ads.  Anyone else do that?  Anyway, ads might bump up revenues for Netflix, right?z
• Speaking of, I started watching the final season of Jessica Jones this week...
• Yo quiero Taco Bell!  Reservations for the new Taco Bellhotel sold out in two minutes.  The Bell is located in Palm Springs, CA, and pricing starts at $169 per night.  Actually, this is the kind of thing I could see myself doing once.  Taco Bell food, too!
• June was a month for the gold bugs, as the metal had its biggest monthly gain in three years. Why?  Fed easing and a weaker dollar?  Iran?
• Love the week of the 4th of July.

Saturday Thoughts!

• The stock market rushed ahead to new market highs this week, on the hopes of a China trade agreement, a Fed rate cut, and who knows what the heck else.  What continues to amaze me is the number of unbelievers on the financial TV and social media. Lots of bears. I’m wondering if this is because of social media and our political environment.  At any given time, about half of the population is experiencing cognitive dissonance, and won’t accept that the economy could possibly be on solid ground.
• Iran’s downing of a drone put a bid under gold, but didn’t seem to phase the stock market.
• I continue to be long the stock market.  This has been one of the longer bull markets from 2009 on, and the length of it should have us all concerned.  But with unemployment rates low, wages growing, low inflation, an accommodating Federal Reserve, deficit spending up the wazoo, and no other places around the world to put money, the US market still looks good.
• Bitcoin also surged back over $10K.  Why? I still don’t own any of it, or any other crypto stuff.  Facebook’s announcement of their entry into the crypto currency market seems a bit more interesting than anything else.
• President Trump calls off the ICE raids scheduled for this weekend.  Hmm… Think about it. The people here illegally probably were doing something to avoid ICE this weekend.  The next time ICE raids are scheduled, maybe these folks will think “Eh, he’s going to cancel it anyway” and they don’t do anything to avoid the ICE raids.
• Like North Korea, President Trump seems to be dangling the hope of an Iranian future full of economic prosperity rather than a collision course towards war. “Make Iran Great Again” is what President Trump offered.  Will the Iranian leaders take it?
• I was disappointed that this season of Black Mirror was only 3 episodes.  I didn’t find any of them particularity interesting, other than “Striking Vipers” was an ongoing discussion amongst friends, and we all agreed we liked “The Miley Cyrus one” as the best of the season.
• The Lakers made the big blockbuster trade with the New Orleans Pelicans, who parted with Anthony Davis in exchange for Lonzo Ball, Branden Ingram, Josh Hart, and 3 picks.  One of the picks the Pellies traded to the Atlanta Hawks for even more picks. On the face of it, as a Lakers fan, looks to me the Lakers acquired a franchise center for their injured list and a bunch of future 19yr old kids.  (Remember, Lakers also acquired Wilt, Kareem, Shaq, and Pau). The Pellies do have some maneuvering room, though!
• I see Amazon is launching “budget 4K TVs,” joining Roku who has their own offerings.  I actually have a Roku TV in a room as an easy and affordable way to watch TV or streaming media.  Is the picture as good as a top of the line TV? Nope. Is it good enough and not tragic if it breaks down after a few years like they all seem to do?  Yep.
• I rushed out and bought an iPad Pro last year, and now see the same model is quite a bit cheaper at Costco today.  Lessons learned! Note to self! Just wait a bit. Nothing of consequence is needed on the bleeding edge of technology, and prices will be lower soon…. And an added bonus by waiting:  More keyboards, cases and other accessories available.
• Star Trek: Picard.   Yes, I will probably watch it.  Haven’t cancelled my CBS All Access sub yet!
• Have a great Saturday!

Monday Randomosity

• Boeing and Caterpillar sent the Dow down today.  NVIDIA also slamming chips.
• I don’t think the Federal Shutdown had much of an effect on the economy because after it was over, everyone got paid.  Whatever wasn’t spent for a month, will now get spent.  Plus, while there are some examples of hardship cases, many banks give interest free loans of paycheck deposits. (We will know soon).  
• Another impact... Chinese trade deal or lack there of.  I’m optimistic a deal will get done, as the sides are meeting and talking.
• Apple earnings tomorrow?  I will be watching on my iPhone XS Max! $AAPL 
• One in three iPhone owners are not upgrading to the XS or XS Max because of price or lack of new features.  Having upgraded two of our device to the XS line, they are nicer but do the same things as the older iPhones.
• Will 5G be the next upgrade catalyst?  I’m thinking... YES!
• CBS All Access going full Star Trek. In addition to Discovery, there will be a new Patrick Stewart as Jean Luc Picard show, a Michelle Yeoh Star Trek as a Captain, and the animated series.
• I started season 2 of The Punisher on Netflix, and ... Like it! $NFLX
• Fourth-quarter GDP scheduled for Wednesday release!  What’s the consensus, 2.6%?  (Less than whatever Larry Kudlow projects?)
• CBO estimates always seem to differ... But their numbers have been off recently.

Have a great Monday!

Rainy Tuesday Randomosity

• The stock market seems to like government gridlock. This is yet another time when the market is advancing during a federal government shutdown.  For now, anyway.  I remain 100% long stocks, and worried that we are in a countertrend rally that will end as we go to retest the late 2018 lows.  I could be wrong, and we just keep going up. 
• My first reaction when hearing that Netflix was going to raise subscription costs was negative. It's just another thing that's going up in price.  My mind suddenly starts thinking of workarounds... 
• Brexit was on the financial channels a lot today, as the UK Parliament rejects Teresa May's Brexit deal. This is going to go on a while.
• Nordstrom didn't do so well this last holiday season.  The mall anchor also reduced forward guidance.
• Should I switch to T-Mobile, that includes free Netflix? 
• Apple selling a new battery case for the new generation of iPhones for $129.  Not a bad deal if you’re not going to be near power for a long time.  Over 20 hours of use?
• After having the new iPad Pro 11” since Christmas, I still haven’t used the Apple Pencil.  I downloaded Procreate, but it seems so overwhelming for a newbie.  I was thinking this was my chance to pick up where I left off from in 4th grade Art class, and work on my drawing skills. I’d like to draw caricatures.  Seems fun.
• Should I subscribe to Netflix one month a year and download 500 shows to the cloud, then repeat that process once I've watched the 500 shows? That seems like a lot of time and added technical complexity just to save $2 a month.
• Verizon will be offering free Apple Music to  customers on the 2 upper unlimited packages, and that makes me consider updating from my 12gig plan to be honest. That also means you have to switch from a credit card to a debit card, losing any airline miles, cash back bonus, or other credit card perks.  Plus, I think you also lose any company sponsored discount.  
• Should I just bring my coffee to work instead of buying coffee?  Seems like that would save more than $2 a month.
• Looks like Star Trek 4 is cancelled.  To be honest, I think we need a Next Next Generation Star Trek, and stop it with the prequels.  What’s next, Baby Spock?  Cmon.
• Should I quit the water club at work?  That seems like a $2 wash.
• And Electronic Arts cancels their planned Star Trek game.
• The reality is that I will pay the Netflix pay hike for the convenience.  And $2 a month isn't the straw that break this camel's back.

Monday Rally Randomosity

• Stocks rally! Reason du jour:  Optimism over US-China trade talks and an agreement hashed out before the 90-day deadline ends in... March?
• The SP500 will rally 15% in 2019, per Marketwatch Columnist. The bottom is in!  Rejoice!
• President Trump to address the nation on Tuesday. We will have to wait and see if he talks about Border Security and the Wall, trade talks with China, or the officiating in the Alabama-Clemson national championship game.
• If you want to know how popular Netflix horror flick "Bird Box" is, just search YouTube for the vloggers talking about the movie, easter eggs, hidden meanings, controversies...
• Amazon takes the lead!  The company surpasses Microsoft as the most valuable US company.
• President Trump will visit the southern border on Thursday. I don't know if he will be pushing for $5B of Congressional funding for border security, declaring a national emergency to fund border security via the military budget, or if he'll be bring along sacks of concrete mix with him on his trip to do it himself.
• PGE may be facing $30B in fire liabilities, and may consider filing for bankruptcy.  So... I'm saying the stock took a hit today: -22.1%.  Hope you don't own any!
• The Los Angeles Lakers aren't as good without LeBron James.  Just an observation. The losses are piling up!
• There are lots of Op-Eds and media commentaries on why we don't need a wall.  There are very few people calling for a team of experts and engineers to decide what goes where to improve border security.  But Ari Fleischer joined the latter via a Tweet today.
• The State of California doesn't have Governor Jerry Brown to kick around anymore.  Gavin Newsome was sworn in today as the new Governor.  The last I read, he is promising everything to everybody.  That's a pretty popular stance!
• I'm going to write about my experiences with the new iPhone XS Max.  I upgraded from the X over the weekend and have some first impressions!
• ALABAMA!

Wild Card Weekend Randomosity!

• Today is all about football.  Sure, there are a bunch of politicians posing and grandstanding, while pretending to “represent the American people.”  But we all know better by now, right?
• I traded in my iPhone X for the XS Max today. Twelve months into the payments, and you can just pay the tax and activation fee, and keep making monthly payments. Hmm, now what were the passwords for this and that and the other thing?  When restoring from the iCloud, it seems to remember some but not all. 
• When Vice President Mike Pence is leading the White House team negotiating with the Democratic leaders, you almost wish you could just fast-forward to the next meeting.
• New iPhone XS Max is a bit zippier than the X.  Noticeable with Face ID and loading pictures/videos.
• Disney won’t make big-budget movies for their new streaming service, although such films will make their way to the platform eventually.  Disney is planning on making a live-action Star Wars show, though. - Business Insider
• As a fan of The Walking Dead and a sorta-kinda fan of Fear the Walking Dead, I really don’t care about crossovers. Last year Morgan joined Fear.  This year? Dwight.  I just don’t like rekindling old story lines.  Make new story lines! - Digital Spy
• Seems like we’re battered with “what’s new on Netflix” stories everyday.  My poor movie queue.
• Republican Bart LeBon wins the Alaskan Supreme Court ruling on the results of their election recount.  LeBon won the election by one vote. - ABC 
• Out of the box, the new iPhone XS Max had 48% battery.  
• CBS All Access has Star Trek Discovery.  And now Patrick Stewart will reprise his role as Jean Luc Picard in a new Star Trek show set 20 years after Star Trek Nemesis.  (Ugh, I’m going to have to sign up). - Entertainment Weekly
• CES 2019 is in the on-deck circle. As a tech geek, I will be following my Technology Apple News feed on my brand-spanking new iPhone XS Max.
• I think I have hundreds of movies and shows lined up in Netflix. My coworkers and I often watch the same shows at the same time, and then talk about them during lunch.  Ok, sometimes during work, too.  Bandersnatch... Bird Box... I’m Sorry... and I think Schitt’s Creek is next up.  Kind of fun.  
• So I have another set of iPhone wired headphones to stick in the technology drawer.
• ATT made predictions about the future 25 years ago.  How’d they do? - CBS

Tag Team Rally!

• Tag team Friday! The combination of a strong jobs number with statements from the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell sent the market up!
• Dow and SP500 up over 3%, and the NASDAQ surging over 4%.
• Jobs data was fantastic, beating the analysts’ expectations.  Wage growth numbers are good, too.  Labor participation is increasing.  Consumer spending is at least 2/3rds of the economy.
• Remember when some thought manufacturing jobs would never come back?  *Casts quick glances at Obama and Krugman*
• One amazing job stat is the one comparing growth in government jobs vs. growth in manufacturing jobs.  The latter surging under Trump, while government jobs surged under Obama.
• Netflix up just over 9.7% when Bandersnatch-viewing analysts at Goldman Sachs were asked “Add $NFLX to conviction list?” chose “Fuck yeah!”
• How are you surviving the partial government shutdown? Seems like the biggest impact is that national parks’ trash cans and bathrooms are overflowing.
• At least the government is meeting and discussing how to resolve the budget and border security. Seems like Trump has the upper hand, though.
• Disney planning on opening Star Wars in June at Disneyland, Anaheim.  Maybe June 21-23?  CROWDS!
• I think the biggest Apple issue going forward is deflation on the price of “good enough” smart phones.  Why spend $1000 when you can get what you need for much less?  Or just replace the aging battery on your older iPhone, and keep on going. Is there a reason to upgrade as long as your current phone functions?
• 5G will be the next upgrade catalyst…
• Kudos to Netflix for Bird Box. People are going to the house in Monrovia to pose in photos! - LA Times 
• I’m currently binging “I’m Sorry” on Netflix. Pretty funny in an adult kind of way.  Might be too much after a few episodes.  But... After Bird Box and Black Mirror Bandersnatch, I was ready for some laughs.  Might have to binge season 2 of “Friends from College” next.  Despite the critics, I liked season 1!

Worst Start in 2 Decades!

• "The stock market logs worst start to a year in 2 decades" - USA Today
• I feel as if a good economy or a bad economy is sometimes the result of marketing. Is an optimistic message being sent my politicians and media? Or, are we seeing a more negative message win the day? I think the Trump hatred has the latter "everything is bad news" sentiment winning the day. If consumers are scared, they're less likely to spend money on stuff.
• Almost on cue, "Branding in a Recession - A Survivor's Guide." - Forbes 
• Meanwhile as I posted the other day, the Fed is raising rates and reducing liquidity...
• What's old is new again:  Nancy Pelosi is the Speaker of the House.  And now she makes $223,500.  American dollars.
• Shutdown yuck:  "Overflowing trash and human waste and other unsafe visitor conditions have prompted Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks in California to close to the public." - CBS Sacramento 
• Who is winning the shutdown? Nobody. Maybe the bears in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks as they have free reign over the trash cans.
• I watched Netflix Black Mirror: Bandersnatch.  Liked it!  I wanted to go to the next episode... but...  That was it!  Have to wait for season 5!  No spoilers, but it was fun to interact and make the decisions for the lead character.
• Will there be discounts and promotions on new iPhone XS and XS Max phones? I was thinking about getting the iPhone XS Max, but now I want to wait for a deal!

Happy New Year 2019!

• The stock market had its worst year since 2008. Do you remember what happened in 2009?  Specifically, what happened in March, 2009?  The beginning of a New Bull Market!  (Lets be optimistic for 2019!)
• While people are quick to give credit or blame to a President for the economic boom and bust, here are a couple of charts I posted on Twitter in a reply to Josh Brown.  

• Oh, and whoever is in charge gets to take credit or accept blame for what goes on while they’re under the roof.  But...
• I feel bad for the workers trapped in the government shutdown.  We need Congress and the President to agree on funding for “border security,” and then let a panel of engineers decide the best way to spend the money:  Wall, fence, electronic surveillance, or whatever.  End the shutdown, fund Border Security, and move on... (h/t to Scott Adams).
• By the way, as long as the economy does not dip into a recession by July, this could be the longest economic expansion in the US in... forever!  Longest ever! 
• Five iPad Pro myths, debunked! Five iPad Pro myths, debunked — Cult of Mac
• By the way, the best way to take advantage of the government shutdown, is to visit a national park... For Free! Unfortunately, unless there are private vendors on site, there may not be any bathroom facilities.  Choose wisely.
• Netflix Stranger Things Season 3 to be available on July 4th.  Our young heroes are now 38 years old... (just kidding, but...)
• Here is the most educated town in every state.  But...  Would you rather be just another person with a degree in the smartest town or the hot shot with a degree in the dumbest town?  Here's the most educated town in every state (Business Insider)
• New Years Day...  We Got Bowl Games and More Bowl Games.  
• I haven’t played any games on the new iPad Pro 11” as of yet.  Feels like a time commitment.
• Maybe the most important thing to remember regarding investing in 2019:  Ignore stock market turbulence and stick to long-term goals.  Word.  Fidelity: Ignore stock market turbulence and stick to long-term goals (Fox News)
• Looking at the Mainstream Media headlines... Well, let me summarize: Russia, Russia, and Russia.
• By the way, I don’t mind if folks want to support media companies by subscribing to content. But I have to wonder, with Apple News app and Flipboard, do you need a newspaper subscription? I just ignore anything behind a firewall.  You?
• Happy New Year!

Are the FANG Stocks Dead?

Have the FANG stocks lost their bite? $FB $AMZN $NFLX $GOOGL

My thought? No.  The market is selling off and those stocks that had the biggest gains are seeing the biggest pullbacks.  I view all of these stocks as generational game changers.  They have changed the way we live our lives.

Facebook is how we keep in touch with each other.  It has replaced emails and chat.  It has replaced late night phone calls.  We share our lives with each other on Facebook (and the other companies owned by the social media giant).  I view $FB as a stock that 10 years from now, many people will have wished they bought and held the stock.

Amazon has replaced the mall.  In some cases, it has replaced the grocery store and corner drugstore.  It’s where we buy stuff.  Remember when you had to wait 6-8 weeks ordering merchandise from a mail order catalog?  2 days.  Anything you want.  Same day in some areas. Oh, and they do other things, too.  The stock has already soared. 

Netflix and chill!  Cord cutting is for realz.  Does anyone have the patience to watch a weekly episodic TV show anymore now that Netflix has introduced us to the wonders of binge watching?  My greatest fear with the stock is competition.  It’s still coming and growing.  But $NFLX is the king of streaming.  And they put out some great shows!  Anyone else watch Black Mirror or binging Luke Cage?

The Google!  This company is going strong with search and video.  The search page is hit multiple times a day for most of us, and has settled many a game-day argument amongst buddies.  “Name all the undefeated NCAA college football teams?”  Anyone else wasted an evening going from YouTube video to YouTube video, watching crazy dog vs. cat videos or a news clip on a current event?

Game changers.  These stocks are how we spend our time.  Advertisers want to spend money where we spend our time.

Of these stocks, I believe $FB will be the strongest grower over the next 10 years.  This doesn’t mean any of these stocks will go straight up for the next 10 years.  All stocks are subject to moves by the Federal Reserve on interest rates, recessions, mergers/acquisitions, competition, and random acts of God.

December Stock Rally!

·       The December. Best month for stocks of all the months they say.  Party on, Wayne.  The market inches up near the all time highs… again.

·       So, $YHOO to spin off the core Internet business?  Leaving Yahoo with… uh, what?  Remember when Yahoo was the internet home page?  Kind of like the evolutionary process from the local BBS, to AOL, to Yahoo.  Kind of sad to see it wither away.  Not sure where they went wrong.  Maybe the competition is better.  Still good for fantasy leagues, although I think most of my leagues have moved on to ESPN.

·       Good column at Barrons on $JNJ.  I’ve owned Johnson & Johnson for awhile.  I just think it will always be around.  No more tears.  I use it in my dividend stack of stocks, and don’t expect it to be a growth monster, but should move up over time while paying out cash.  Maybe it gets interesting if they break it up.

·       Streaming The Man in the High Castle on Amazon Prime.  Pretty good.  So far.  I’m about half way through…  Jessica Jones next on the $NFLX – Netflix.

·       Did you read where Donald Trump wants $5M to participate in the next GOP debate?  He’s not my guy, but I’d be tempted to not pay him.  Call his bluff.  Can you imagine him telling the Climate Change conference that he’s not going unless they pay him money?  Wait – that’s probably true for most of the folks that go to that, right?

·       I keep thinking that I need to reallocate my portfolio.  Maybe towards the end of the month.  It’s very high beta right now.  At least the trading portion.  I do have most in SPY.

Market Thoughts

• $SPY $QQQ – Still long the market but did book a few gains. Looking to buy back any weakness.  I’m bullish on 2015.  Yes, there will be pullbacks and scary parts along the way.
• As kids we get Christmas vacation.  Why does that end as adults?  Not fair -  so I took it back!  Been on vacation for a couple weeks.
• Security stocks…  Should make a ton of money.  But could be acquisition plays from companies that need the growth into that market.  Just thinking out loud.
• Knowing history, do you think oil prices go lower and lower and lower?  I think prices go higher someday because cars still run on gasoline and economies are growing.  Meanwhile, environmentalists have declared war on fracking, pipelines, etc. 
• Commodity plays are tough with a rising US dollar, too.  Watching banks around the world for easing and tightening kinds of moves.  Also tough to hold foreign market ETFs when the US dollar goes up as those markets are denominated in foreign currencies.  We are also seeing countries that basically have no economy other than exporting oil having a rough go of it.  I’m looking at you $RSX and $EWW.
• I think there is a biotech stock bubble.  Similar to internet and business-to-business stock bubble of 1999-2000.  It won’t end well.
• Back to blogging and audioboos and podcasts in 2015.  I think having this as part of my market review routine helps to keep touch on what’s going on.  I have been more active on Twitter.  Blogging is so 2006 they say.
• By the way, I like the negativity on TWTR.  Don’t own shares yet, but it is on my watch list.
• Heading home today.  I’ve watched a $NFLX movie via streaming everyday.  WOW!  But I don’t find myself watching many DVDs anymore, so thinking about canceling that part. Anyone else?
• I wanted to spend some time this month clearing the backlog of recorded shows on the DVR.  Uh, haven’t made much progress. 

Netflix Randomosity

• I've never owned Netflix - $NFLX. Afraid of competition.  Didn't think it would last once the Big Boys got involved. 
• I was wrong.  Netflix is the Big Boy in providing streaming and DVD. 
• And I use Netflix all the time!  
• The stock is selling off today on a disappointing earnings report Monday. 
• Of course, it has been a darling momentum stock and if it does come down it had a ways to go.  
• Not going to buy it.  Last person in the pool worry, you know?
• Still will use it. And I'm currently watching Everybody Loves Raymond.  Lol.