Super Bowl Prediction - Arizona +7

I was in Reno last night staring at the wall in the Sports Book, wondering what to do in Sunday's Super Bowl between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Arizona Cardinals. This game could be a blowout in either direction. I won't be surprised at whatever the outcome is. I could easily rationalize a bet in either direction.

The Steelers have a fantastic defense and a ball control offense. Anyone who played fantasy football this year knows that Pittsburgh's defense kills fantasy stats. And Arizona's offense is a fantasy offense. The Steelers defense gave Joe Flacco some time to pass and he doesn't have the same kind of receivers that the Cardinals have. But the defense has been good at home and on the road. The Steelers offense can mount mind-numing 8-minute drives. Willie Parker is healthy. Ben Roethlisberger has been gritty and smart. But that offensive unit is a bit suspect. I don't think the offensive line is that great, as Roethlisberger has taken some hits this year. Hines Ward may not be 100% healthy, and those other wideouts seem to drop a lot of balls.

Who would've thought Arizona would be here? I've certainly been wrong about the Cardinals during the playoffs. The Cardinals offense is fun to watch and has done well against some good defenses. Kurt Warner is smart in the pocket and quick to recognize the defense. He has Fitzgerald, Boldin, and Breaston running routes. Warner has been quick to release the ball to a variety of targets when the pass rush comes. The running game has improved in the playoffs, but it is going up against Pittsburgh's defense. The Cardinals' defense has surprised me and has shut down running backs Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams, and Brian Westbrook. That defense has also limited the impact of big name wideouts (Roddy White, Steve Smith).

At some point you have to stop staring at the wall in the Sports Book and pick a side. I stepped up to the counter and called out for the Cardinals +7. I also took the over on 46.5 points on the game. I think the probabilty is higher that Arizona either wins straight up or Pittsburgh wins a close game, compared to Pittsburgh dominating the scoreboard for 60 minutes.

It's just a guess. I just hope it's fun to watch.

I also made a ton of proposition bets. A ton. Parlayed the number of interceptions, field goals and sacks in a 3-pick parlay. Each quarter, I have bets on the over-under and point winner for the quarter. I bet on players to score and not score touchdowns. I bet on what would happen on Warner's first pass and Ben's first pass. Just stuff to keep the game interesting. I told the guy at the sportsbook that I'll probably be so hammered during the game, that I won't be able to keep track of all of these proposition bets. He laughed and said, "Just bring the tickets back up, and we'll sort them out." LOL.

Good luck. Enjoy the game.