It's Obvious in Retrospect

The market has been frustrating for the bulls. For me. In retrospect, it all seems so obvious. The previous stock bubble collapse destroyed a lot of portfolios. The real estate crash destroyed a lot of equity. Oil hitting over $140 a barrel and gasoline prices closing in on $5 a gallon last Summer destroyed a lot of discretionary spending. Government deficit spending growing under then President Bush and now President Obama. The nation is fighting multiple wars overseas and spending hundreds of billions on social programs here at home.

In restrospect, it seems so obvious that it has to end. Why would it continue? Those quarter-after-quarter numbers of over 3% GDP under Bush were a boom that has ended in a bust. The borrowing binge has ended for citizens. It continues for the government, but you have to wonder at what point foreign countries are going to want to bother with funding our government's spending. And an issue today that came up was an uptick in inflation. Maybe that will look obvious in retrospect, too. What do we think will happen with neverending trillions in stimulus spending combined with close to zero interest rates and falling energy prices? There's a lot of money out there that will eventually be chasing declining supply.

Just saying. Watch for it.

Meanwhile? The market? We're below the November lows on the DOW. Close on the SP500. If anyone is expecting this to be the retest and then we'll launch into a bull market, their poker faces aren't showing it.

If there is any good news out there, it is for those who are young enough to be contributing to their 401(k) plans every month via dollar cost averaging. Maybe over the long term, this to will just be a blip in history and those who continue to invest in a diversified index of equities held for many decades will end up as winners. And that will look obvious in retrospect, too.

Oh, picture is of KCAL news anchor Leyna Nguyen. You've probably seen her on many TV shows and movies playing a news anchor!