The Google Maps Snafu

Did you read where $GOOG maps lost $AAPL and Foursquare, and Yelp may be next?

Google started charging for high-volume Google Maps users, and Apple and Foursquare have switched to OpenStreetMap.

Apple had integrated Google Maps into iOS, but no more.

How will this impact Google going forward? With iOS dominating mobile computing and outpacing desktop and laptop growth, this is something to keep an eye on.

Wall Street Erases Weekly Losses (Almost)

The market has rallied back the past two days, and who gets the credit? Greece! Stocks rose on Thursday, recovering most of the week's losses, after Greece moved closer to a bond swap with private creditors to avoid a messy default.

Well, okay.  Greece continues to get the media's attention.

So, the market has bounced back to near the recent highs.  Anyone have any concerns or sense of foreboding about that?  Lighter-volume retest of the highs?  Could this be a well-telegraphed opportunity to lighten up?  The market is basically at the highs of the trading range that has defined this bear market from 2000-2012 (so far).  Just saying.

I certainly hope that the market goes higher.  But I'm not sure I'd bet that this happens now or later this year.  I haven't done much and remain 80% long, but as I've mentioned before I have lowered my beta.  Haven't done any more of that, but it is on my mind.  Maybe this is because I'm caught up in the emotion of trading stocks, too.  It is difficult to sell when "the fish are biting" and speculative stocks are moving higher.  It works while it works.   And it's fun, right?

#149: The New iPad; Peyton Manning; Mitt Romney; Windmills vs Birds

#149: The New iPad; Peyton Manning; Mitt Romney; Windmills vs Birds

#audioboo

The First Big Loss of 2012

Today was the first big stock market loss of 2012.  And the Mayan calendar predicted it.  Well, maybe it was this reason du jour:  The Dow dropped more than 200 points on Tuesday, handing Wall Street its worst day in three months on renewed fears of a disorderly default in Greece and concerns that China's slowdown would hit global growth.

Remember just a couple of weeks ago when the Greece crisis was solved for the second time?  Looks like we’ll need a third time. Now that Greece is getting paid for bailouts, Rush Limbaugh was quick to label the country a Euro slut.

I remain about 80% long.  It’s not like the market was going to go up forever.

The Black Box timed this sell signal right on the number, but it has been wrong with the last few sell signals. It tends to work best in a sideways market.

If I had to make a prediction, it would be that the market is in a pullback and folks will get another chance to sell on a double-top.  Maybe that will be the top before the summer and the end of the favorable stock market season.  I’d expect the market to then rally into year end.  Despite the selling, it should be a good year for stocks.

The Chevy Volt; iPad 3 or HD; Nutrisystems

Gas Prices Up 26-Days in a Row!

Gas prices up 26-days in a row! It will matter when it matters, but nationally the price is $3.76 while here in Sacramento it's in the mid-$4 range!

Sweet!

Isn't affecting the crowds at BJ's, Cheesecake Factory, or Thunder Valley Casino.

I think that the economy is better. There are more people working. In addition, interest rates are close to zero percent and many folks have refinanced their homes at rates below 4%. Maybe some of the money goes to the pump, but there may be enough left over to have a little fun, too.

Again, oil prices eventually will hurt folks. But when?

posted from Bloggeroid

Market Thoughts and Trading on Emotion

The market shrugged off a weak ISM number and potential Saudi pipeline disruption to rally. The Dow failed to retake 13,000 and it does look a bit like it's churning. But the number of stocks making new highs, aka the internals, look good. Of course, that is the rear view mirror tonight. Tomorrow may be something else. And if we go down, then the churning here at the highs gains traction.

And don't look at a monthly chart of the market. Don't do it. If you believe that we're in a secular bear market and the market is likely to reverse down near the top of the long-term trend, don't look at the monthly chart. It will scare you.

Oil rallied up to $110 on the rumored hit to the Saudi oil pipeline.

I remain about 80% long, plus or minus. While I reduced some beta last week, I haven't made any rebalancing moves this week. Although, I continue to think about it! The market is going to correct back to the 50-day moving average someday. Everyday we get closer to that event. Truly, we do.

I don't know about you, but whenever I have cash on the sidelines, it is very tempting for me to trade individual stocks. As in high-frequency. So, I've been doing that in very small sizes and having some good fortune. Everyone is a good stock picker when the market rallies, so I'm not attempting to gloat here. Rather, I'm just making the point that even though I'm fairly disciplined, I'm subject to the emotional temptation of trading when the market is hot. And that sort of thing works as long as it works, and then it doesn't work anymore.

For example, highly volatile biotechs with calendar news events on the near-term horizon are very tempting to try and get on the right side of the roller coaster ride. These kind of stocks are like crack. Or maybe like gambling.

And we all know I like to gamble, right?

Just saying.

posted from Bloggeroid