Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Market Thoughts and Randomosity (and Christine Nguyen!)

  • $SPY - Market thoughts! Wow, could the volume be any lighter? The market has had a big run lately in what is the weak month of the weak season (Summer). So throw that out the window this year.  Oh, and last year, too.
  • Despite the market rallying, you never know when the next headline event will derail stocks for ... oh, lets call it about 4% or so.  Rounding.  So far, those have been BTFD (buy the dip) opportunities.  Of course, if you're long and strong and have no cash to throw at stocks then you just go for the ride.  And it has been a good ride.
  • I remain long, but trimmed a little last week. 
  • "The Islamic State runs a self-sustaining economy across territory it controls in Syria and Iraq, pirating oil while exacting tribute from a population of at least eight million, Arab and Western officials said, making it one of the world's richest terror groups and an unprecedented threat."  So what's the difference between tribute and taxes?  I live in CA and just found out that gas taxes are going up January 1st for AB 32, which is the CA government money transfer scheme to fight a war against the Sun God ("global warming").
  • "Football stadiums will be packed this weekend for the kickoff of the college season. But many of the student sections are likely to have empty seats."  So it seems that ticket prices are going up.  Shocker.  The article goes over some ideas on why attendance is falling off.  For me personally, I would cite that I have a very nice big screen HD TV and love to watch many games at the same time rather than fight the crowds and pay the high costs at a game where I'm usually seated far away from the action. But that's just me!
  • Maybe.
  • Yes, that's Christine Nguyen the porn star.  Oh well.  I cropped it.  Safe for work!
  • Snapchat has a $10 billion valuation?  Wow.  LOL.  That will end badly, right?
  • So, are bonds going to keep rallying?  Makes no sense to me.  Is the economy really that horrible?  I don't think so.
  • Home prices are at a 70-month high, but folks are worried that the pace is slowing down. I think the bottom line is that home prices are largely influenced by rising wages and the ability of homeowners to make higher and higher monthly payments.
  • Yes, I haven't been too active in blogging or Facebook or Twitter or Audioboo lately.  You know, it's a bull market.  About everything is making money.  There is nowhere else to put money but in US stocks.  So, I haven't felt like talking about it when it seems as if the market is just heading up until something changes.
  • Hope you're having a great "last week" of summer.  Seems like most kids are in school already around here, though.

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Market Thoughts

$SPY - My latest market thoughts: This has been an amazing bull market. I am amazed that the market continues to move up without more than pulling back a few percent here and there.

I wonder how much of it is due to the fact that there just isn't anywhere else to put money to make a return?  Even mediocre earnings and shaky world politics can't seem to do more than to just create a BTFD (Buy the Dip) moment.

I continue to be mostly long and trading in and out of various things here and there.  It's been a good year so far.  I don't know when it will all change. 

It will.



I know.  Haven't been posting or Audioboo-ing much at all lately.  Sigh.

Russia shuts four McDonald's

$MCD - McDonald's: Russia Closes four restaurants. That'll show us. 

Russia ordered the temporary closure of four McDonald's restaurants in Moscow on Wednesday, a decision it said was over sanitary violations but which comes against a backdrop of worsening U.S.-Russian ties over Ukraine. The four restaurants ordered to…

Sent from Windows Mail

The One Hand vs. The Other Hand

The FED! Don't you love it when they play both sides of the fence?

"The U.S. Federal Reserve hinted on Wednesday that a surprisingly strong jobs market recovery could lead it to raise interest rates earlier than it had been anticipating."


"At the same time, most Fed officials wanted further evidence before changing their view on when rates should rise, according to the minutes from the central bank's July 29-30 meeting."

And that's a wrap!  Lets go get drunk!

Seriously though, the market jerked one way before jerking the other.  It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.   Carry on.

Sent from Windows Mail

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Coach Ditka

Coach Mike Ditka on the Washington Redskins name controversy:

Monday, August 18, 2014

‎Up to Our Ears in Corn‎

$CORN - Contrarian alert! Wet weather and cooler than average temps are leading to a windfall in corn. 

"Expectations of a glut have driven corn prices down by 13% this year, to near four-year lows, after a 40% decrease last year."

So, from a long term investing point of view, do you think the country will continue to produce record amounts of corn?  Or, will some sort of dryer or hotter weather lead to corn shortages ever again?

Just thinking out loud.

No positions.  Like to eat corn, though.

U.S. Farmers Are Up to Their Ears in Corn

Tony C. Dreibus

The Wall Street Journal. - The Wall Street Journal. - Mon Aug 18 17:30:00 UTC 2014

"We're going to drown in corn this year." The assessment, from Jeff Brown, 45 years old, a fifth-...

Sent from Surface Pro

Thursday, August 14, 2014


$TLT - Okay, who said what at 1pm today?

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

‎Japanese economy contracts

$EWJ - Poor Japan. They can't get out of their own way. Their economy contracted 6.8% in the 2nd quarter.  What was the main culprit? A hike in the sales tax that led to less consumer spending.

If you want less of something, tax it!  (Who said that?)

Japanese economy contracts sharply

BBC News

BBC - BBC - Wed Aug 13 05:38:12 UTC 2014

Japan's economy contracted by an annualised 6.8% in the second quarter of the year, the biggest fall...

If you have Windows 8, open this in Finance. Otherwise, open in the browser.

Sent from Surface Pro

‎Wage Inflation?

Wage inflation? My thought is that the recent hikes in the minimum wages will also start pushing other wages up, too. When the minimum wage goes up, everyone gets a raise eventually!

What will your pay raise be in 2015? Salary increases are edging higher

Diane Stafford

Kansas City Star - Kansas City Star - Tue Aug 12 17:41:05 UTC 2014

Smidgen by smidgen, employee pay raises are edging higher. Projected wage and salary increases fo...

If you have Windows 8, open this in Finance. Otherwise, open in the browser.

Sent from Surface Pro

Wednesday, August 06, 2014

‎Scrap corporate income tax, and make shareholders pay‎

This guy says to scrap the corporate tax rate and make American shareholders pay full taxes on dividends and yearly gains in stock prices, whether the shares have been sold or not.




Scrap corporate income tax, and make shareholders pay

By Eric Toder and Alan D. Viard

MarketWatch - MarketWatch - Wed Aug 6 19:28:35 UTC 2014

The U.S. corporate tax system is broken. Recent efforts by major corporations such as Medtronic ...

If you have Windows 8, open this in Finance. Otherwise, open in the browser.

Sent from Surface Pro

Russia to block US agricultural imports‎

Russia steps up the sanctions on the sanctions.  None of this is good for world markets.  Trade wars are ugly.  So are real wars.  But is this worse than if Russia were bogged down in some lengthy no-win contest in Ukraine for a decade?  Wars these days seem to last forever or until the larger country tires of fighting leftover roaming insurgents. 

Anyway.  None of this is good for $RSX or individual Russian stocks, as the economic sanctions gain more momentum.  This is also affecting European ETFs, so I am avoiding those right now (no matter how tempting it is to bottom fish $EWG - Germany).

Report: Russia to block US agricultural imports

JIM HEINTZ Associated Press

Associated Press - Associated Press - Thu Aug 7 01:01:10 UTC 2014

MOSCOW — Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday hit back hard against countries that have imp...

If you have Windows 8, open this in Finance. Otherwise, open in the browser.

Sent from Surface Pro

‎Walgreen May Be the Exception

$WAG - Hey Walgreens, that made ZERO sense! #taxinversion

(Er, #notaxinversion )

Walgreen May Be the Exception to the Logic of Inversions


The New York Times - The New York Times - Wed Aug 6 21:05:16 UTC 2014

Walgreen has encountered a limit to the logic of inversions. The drugstore chain will keep flying th...

If you have Windows 8, open this in Finance. Otherwise, open in the browser.

Sent from Surface Pro

Fox Business Block Gurus

Here are the numbers year to date from the Fox business block viewers vs. the indices


(Results are investing an equal dollar amount in guru and index picks at the closing price on Friday before the show airs, compounded until 8/6, excluding dividends).

Sent from Surface Pro