Friday, December 30, 2016

No Changes to Portfolio

I didn't make any year-end changes to the portfolio. I remain nearly 100% long and slightly overweighted in small caps. I also have some cash on the sidelines that has grown due to dividends, distributions and what not, that I have been debating what to do with. 

I have been thinking for the past month that I wanted to rebalance, go more to cash, and maybe pick up a Dow laggard like Nike.  I have been concerned that the market ramped too much after the Trump win and seeming overconfidence of the bulls.  If everyone is bullish and optimistic, is there anyone left to buy stocks?  72% of the country is optimistic.  Sentiment indicators are optimistic (see for more on sentiment). 

But with all the optimism in front of our faces, my Twitter feed seems strangely bearish.  And many of those who I follow are top notch investors. (See my Twitter feed @muckdog).  They are worried about a bear market as we transition into 2017 and a Trump administration.  I've also been reading similar warnings about "market valuations not seen since" 1999 and 2006.  Or was it 1987?  And "whoa" those first couple years of the Reagan administration and the George W Bush administration were quite the stinkers for bulls! Doesn't history repeat itself or at least rhyme?  Anyway, you get the idea. The bull market that has been running since March 2009 is no spring chicken.  Bull markets don't last forever. 

So I'm living in the realm of the paralysis of analysis. Too much information!  TMI!

As of right now I decided to do nothing.  My gut feeling tells me the Twitter bears on my twitter feed are probably right and that we see a sell off in early 2017.  But my gut feelings don't usually translate to great stock returns.  I will maintain current positions, overweighted in small caps, and dollar cost average in monthly.  I'm still thinking about Nike... 

I wish all of you and yours a very Happy New Year!

Sunday, December 18, 2016

Electoral College Votes Randomosity

  • imageThe Electors vote tomorrow.  FYI.  Should be an interesting day,  Many of the electors have been emailed, stalked, threatened, etc., to NOT vote for Trump.
  • Small cap stocks have been down 2 of the last 3 weeks.  FYI.
  • I think the electors should do the will of their states voters.  California electors should cast their votes for Hillary.  Texas electors should cast their votes for Trump.  Etc.
  • Entering the last 2 weeks of the year, you would think a slow period in the market.  Don’t short a dull tape and all.  And many folks may want to postpone selling stocks until next year when we may have a new tax code.
  • One of the new personal income tax proposals is to increase the standard deduction to the point where most people wouldn’t use the home mortgage deduction.  Thus, for all intents and purposes eliminating the mortgage deduction for homeowners.  How would that sell?
  • Can you imagine the life of the Texas elector, Christopher Suprun, who says he won’t vote for Trump?
  • Football.   Brock benched in Houston!  And the Texans rally under Tom Savage to win.  Hmm.
  • Fake news…  There is a difference between real news, fake news, and opinion pieces.  I think Facebook trying to filter stories by relying on sources many consider liberal will have some fallout.  Lots of those sources tend to be full of opinions.  (As we all are).

#272: Market Thoughts, Star Wars, and Electric Cars!

Market thoughts... 2017 investing theme and ideas... Disney's Star Wars Rogue One storms box office... Nissan considering an EV... Tesla to charge a fee at supercharger stations for laggards... China returns drone... And more! (From Saturday, 12/17/2016)

Saturday, December 17, 2016

The Last Few Podcasts

The last three podcasts where I talk about China, Russia, Trump and my market thoughts. Available on iTunes (Muck), Audioboom, Spreaker and Soundcloud.

Market worried about China today... Dow 20,000 will have to wait. Obama press conference today. Russia... Nintendo... New York Times... Rexnord... And more! #china,#russia,#nintendo,#SuperMarioRun
My market thoughts... The stock market bounced back today but fell short of Dow 20,000. Yahoo email gets hacked… in 2013. Russia denies Russian hacking. Strong dollar... More fake news... And more! #fakenews,#russia,$FB,$YHOO
The Federal Reserve raised rates today, and made statements about the future. Stocks drop! Credit card debt booms... More fake news... Gold... Smith and Wesson... And more! #fakenews,#russia,#creditcards,$SWHC

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Are Stocks in a Bubble?

I posted a 10-yr chart of the Dow on Twitter but here it is again. $DIA


What an incredible run from March 2009 through late 2016. Is that what a bubble looks like?  This has been an almost relentless move up.  A few sideways moments along the way, but this is what a bull market looks like. 

This is also during a period where President Barack Obama did not see a GDP over 3%.  He has been relentlessly hammered over the slow economy, while people also said the rising stock market has contributed to inequality.  The rich get richer while poor and middle class people have not seen wage growth, struggle to find good paying jobs, a falling labor participation rate, and don't participate in the stock market. The national debt has doubled under President Obama.    

The country now gets a new President next month, with different ideas on taxes, regulations, and jobs.  Many analysts are predicting higher GDP but also higher inflation and budget deficits.  

What will a chart of the next 10-yrs look like?

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

268: Stock Records, Russia and Trump

Market rally continues as Nasdaq 100 makes first new high since March 2000. New highs across Dow, SP500, and Nasdaq. Trump announces appointments for Energy and Secretary of State... Apple iOS 10.2 includes new TV app... Tesla... IBM... fake news... And more!

Friday, December 09, 2016

#266: Stocks Rally Again and MI Recount!

Market rally continues. New highs in the Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq, and small-cap stocks. Michigan recount halted... Macau gaming stocks... Michael Moore...John Glenn... Fitbit... Costco... And more! (From 12/8/2016)

Thursday, December 08, 2016

#265: Trump Stock Market Rally Soars!

Market rally continues. New highs in the Dow, S&P 500 and small-cap stocks. Dow Theory transports make new highs. Trump bashes drug prices... Pearl Harbor... Tessa... Amazon... And more! This is from yesterday...

Tuesday, December 06, 2016

#264: Small Caps Rally, Recounts, and Trump!

Small Cap stocks continue to rally. The recounts in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. And Nevada. And Florida. Any changes? Trump... Portland... McDonalds... Nike... Amazon... And more! A little gap between posting podcasts here. Always available in iTunes under "Muck" or in the right sidebar here!

Tuesday Randomosity

  • imageFor buy and holders, the Nasdaq is up 6.5% for the year.  Not horrible.  Not a lot. Like having Low T.  Not as much fun as you’d like it to be.
  • I’m still long the stock market.  Always wary of tax loss selling in early December, but as Christmas draws near I’d expect some year-end and 2017 positioning.  Like in some of the strong-stock losers of 2016.  Nike.  Disney.  For example.  Maybe.  No promises of course.
  • UCLA Bruins are 9-0?  Is Lew Alcindor playing?
  • It was just last week when OPEC couldn’t get their act together, and then got their act together, and decided to make oil production cuts.  Oil went up on that, but today back down -2.03% to $50.74.  And that’s with oil inventories drawn down 2.2 million barrels.
  • Maybe the Michigan recount ends tomorrow.  Looks like the MI Attorney General got a favorable ruling in the Court of Appeals today, and now can file a case to stop the recount.  I just want it over.  Move on.
  • An inequality tax? The city council of Portland will vote on Wednesday whether to impose a tax on companies whose CEO’s pay exceeds the median salary of their workers by a ratio of more than 100-to-one.
  • Under Armor gets MLB deal.  So if you want to be trendy, you’ll need some new jerseys with the UA logo on front.
  • Google wants to get 100% of its energy from renewable sources by 2017.  Hey, that’s pretty soon.
  • Hmmmmmmmmm….  Tuesday…..