Stocks... Election... ACB Hearings...

• Stock market mixed a bit today.  Earnings season is kicking off.  JNJ COVID19 vaccine trial halted.
• What's better for stocks? A blue wave sweep where Biden wins and the Dems take the Senate and keep the House?  So says Guggenheim's Scott Minerd.
• Disney announces that they're reorganizing and focusing more on streaming!  Shares trading about 4% higher as I type.
• It's Amazon Prime Day!  (If you need another Echo Dot).
• The big question for investors, is whether Disney stock will receive a higher PE multiple on the news.  I have owned $DIS for a long time, and it has underperformed this year and recently. Hard for travel and vacation related stocks to thrive in a COVID19 world.
• Yesterday, I tuned into the opening remarkds on the ACB hearing for the SCOTUS. I decided not to watch today.
• But I did watch some of the Apple Event on the new iPhone! The latest and the greatest! These things used to be kind of exciting, but it seems like improvements are marginal in the terms of how most of us use the phone.
• I watched "Christopher Robin" on Disney+ recently. (Spoiler: No time travel or world ending plague involved).
• I would think investors prefer gridlock, like we have now. The government is basically at a standstill. No legislation can be passed. Status quo! Full speed ahead!
• The Blue Wave Sweep would happen if the polls are right as of today. Are they?

Shaq, Coffee, Oculus Rift, Disney and Stocks

• I click on the Apple News Economy headlines, and the first article that comes up is from Yahoo Finance, “Quietest in 20 years: Truckers feel chill of slowing US economy.”  Do bull markets end when everyone is telling us how bad the economy is?  Uh, I don’t think so...  I’d expect to see lots of euphoria and speculation.  Doesn’t have to be that way, but still...  Lots of pessimism in the headlines.  
• Apple is set to release their first 5G iPhones in 2020.  Whether or not consumers will get 5G service outside of a 3 block radius in a few US cities is unknown at this time.  But I hear it’s really, really fast!
• I watched a YouTube video of a demo of the new Oculus Rift virtual reality game system.  Let’s just say it was no Striking Vipers.  (Black Mirror reference ... It’s a joke!)
• I heard Toy Story 4 was pretty good, but CNN says the movie didn’t top Disney’s high expectations.  The movie made $238 million worldwide, and $118 here in the US.  Seems like a lot.  I mean, it’s more than I made this weekend.  You?
• I’m not sure how many bad things have to happen before people cancel their vacation plans to the Dominican Republic, but we’ve got to be getting close.
• Shaq has never had coffee?  What?
• If I had to pick the likely winner from the field of Democratic hopefuls, I’m thinking it’s going to be Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren.  I don’t think Biden or Bernie are going to be there.  First debates this week, right?  I expect a lot of Trump bashing!
• Hope you had a great weekend.  First official weekend of summer, you know.  

Shutdown Saturday Randomosity

• Is the bear market over? Was that it? Or, are we experiencing a countertrend rally within a bear market that is sucking everyone in?
• Some of my worries include the Fed, slowing economies, trade wars, political division, and climate change. Ok, scratch the last one.  Well... Maybe. It has been foggy here.  
• The political division is getting tiresome. I say give Trump the $5B and let a panel of border security experts and engineers figure out how it needs to be spent on the border: wall, fence, surveillance, more border agents, more judges...
• $5B out of $4T budget is .125%.  It’s like a family making $100,000 arguing over $125.  It happens! Maybe someone sleeps on the couch for a few days, but you don’t shut down the family over it.
• Macy’s stock took a beating on reduced sales and guidance.  Online shopping maturity hitting the box stores that are still standing.  I thought Macy’s seemed a little empty last time I was there.  There were people, but kind of sparse.
• On average, workers received 3% wage gains per the data.  Disney CEO Bob Iger dragging up that average with an 80% pay raise.  
• Not that Bob hasn’t been great for Disney. But I understand why the Progressive message regarding income inequality gets a lot of play.
• How has Socialism worked in Sweden?  After all, the Progressives and Democratic Socialists like AOC say Sweden is one of the examples of how to make it work. 
• If the economy is slowing, will casinos take a hit?  I’ve held Las Vegas Sands for quite a while. Hasn’t been my best performing stock, that’s for sure.  And that’s when the economy has actually been okay.
• Divisional Playoffs...

Sunday Wildcard Stock Thoughts

• Late afternoon on the West coast, and Asian stock markets trading higher in anticipation of US-China trade talks.  Maybe they’re having a reaction to Friday’s US stock rally as well.
• US Senator Richard Shelby says the US economy is “best I’ve ever seen.” - Fox News  I have to admit that the economy does seem very strong, but that also worries me because can the economy get any better?
• I’m fully invested in the stock market and anticipate a positive 2019. But, the market may continue to be volatile and I wouldn’t rule out a retest of the lows. I hope we don’t see new lows!
• Whatever happened to Bitcoin?
• It’s 2019, and that means Disneyland price increases! Disney will be crowded when the new Star Wars attractions open up this summer.  I’m planning on a Fall visit...
• While my new iPad Pro 11” from Santa Claus and the iPhone XS Max I bought yesterday still have that “new Apple smell,” it’s never too early to talk about 2019 Apple product releases and Apple envy. Services, hardware, software and a new video streaming service on deck!  - Cult of Mac 
• Man, I picked the Baltimore Ravens at home to beat the Los Angeles Chargers.  It all seems so silly in hindsight.
• I spent the last 20 minutes organizing my iPad Apple News sources.  #truth
• Is Silicon Valley still atop the nation’s tech environments? According to the rankings, Silicon Valley is behind Massachusetts, Colorado and Maryland.  Maryland’s science and tech workforce outranks all states! - Baltimore Business Journal (Think they’re biased?) 
• We are finally getting some soaking rain here in California. Looks like the forecast is for a very rainy week!

Wild Card Weekend Randomosity!

• Today is all about football.  Sure, there are a bunch of politicians posing and grandstanding, while pretending to “represent the American people.”  But we all know better by now, right?
• I traded in my iPhone X for the XS Max today. Twelve months into the payments, and you can just pay the tax and activation fee, and keep making monthly payments. Hmm, now what were the passwords for this and that and the other thing?  When restoring from the iCloud, it seems to remember some but not all. 
• When Vice President Mike Pence is leading the White House team negotiating with the Democratic leaders, you almost wish you could just fast-forward to the next meeting.
• New iPhone XS Max is a bit zippier than the X.  Noticeable with Face ID and loading pictures/videos.
• Disney won’t make big-budget movies for their new streaming service, although such films will make their way to the platform eventually.  Disney is planning on making a live-action Star Wars show, though. - Business Insider
• As a fan of The Walking Dead and a sorta-kinda fan of Fear the Walking Dead, I really don’t care about crossovers. Last year Morgan joined Fear.  This year? Dwight.  I just don’t like rekindling old story lines.  Make new story lines! - Digital Spy
• Seems like we’re battered with “what’s new on Netflix” stories everyday.  My poor movie queue.
• Republican Bart LeBon wins the Alaskan Supreme Court ruling on the results of their election recount.  LeBon won the election by one vote. - ABC 
• Out of the box, the new iPhone XS Max had 48% battery.  
• CBS All Access has Star Trek Discovery.  And now Patrick Stewart will reprise his role as Jean Luc Picard in a new Star Trek show set 20 years after Star Trek Nemesis.  (Ugh, I’m going to have to sign up). - Entertainment Weekly
• CES 2019 is in the on-deck circle. As a tech geek, I will be following my Technology Apple News feed on my brand-spanking new iPhone XS Max.
• I think I have hundreds of movies and shows lined up in Netflix. My coworkers and I often watch the same shows at the same time, and then talk about them during lunch.  Ok, sometimes during work, too.  Bandersnatch... Bird Box... I’m Sorry... and I think Schitt’s Creek is next up.  Kind of fun.  
• So I have another set of iPhone wired headphones to stick in the technology drawer.
• ATT made predictions about the future 25 years ago.  How’d they do? - CBS

#272: Market Thoughts, Star Wars, and Electric Cars!

Market thoughts... 2017 investing theme and ideas... Disney's Star Wars Rogue One storms box office... Nissan considering an EV... Tesla to charge a fee at supercharger stations for laggards... China returns drone... And more! (From Saturday, 12/17/2016)

#254: Market and Trump Transition Comments

Mitt Romney Secretary of State? Obama and Yellen blah blah blah... Precious snowflakes skipping classes... Is the selling in tech stock "dumb money?" Protests... Gold... McDonalds... Disney... Best Buy... And more!

#248: Election Aftermath: Stocks Rip Higher

Protesters hit the streets. Stocks rip higher! Financial stocks soar...  Tech stocks swoon... Celebrate Trump win with a charitable donation.  Trump meets Obama to talk transition... Disney earnings... And more!

Sunday Market Thoughts (and Swimsuit!)

• What a week for stocks and Sports Illustrated swimsuit models!
• Ok ... China version ... Mika V is her name.   
• The stock market had an amazing week. I am still long with only a very small amount in cash.  I think the trend is higher even though the market is now flat for the year!  We are seeing lower energy costs, higher employment and wage growth which is good for the consumer and economy. 
• Brian Williams stepping down from the NBC anchor desk during the investigation. Lots of folks on $TWTR  and with Photoshop having fun. My thoughts are that if the guy faked a story when his job is to tell the news, he should be fired.
• Okay, have you seen the "plus sized" US Sports Illustrated Swimsuit model? That would pass for skinny in my office. 
• $DIS - Disney earnings were outstanding. I own the stock and will continue to add over the years.  Buy and hold forever? Not sure but seems likely unless something changes.  Disney is an entertainment juggernaut. 
• $TWTR - I think Twitter will be a long term winner but don't own any shares.  I think the earnings report was good. Everyone goes there for instant news.  Although trolling and arguing gets tiresome.  Maybe that's why there are a lot of people who are on Twitter but don't do anything. 
• I prefer $FB and where Facebook could go over the years.  
• Energy - my thoughts are to buy energy weakness and be patient. The stuff doesn't ever seem to be low for very long. Some of the names have already had big moves. The only thing I own is $XOM because it is huge and diversified. 
• With the jobs number and the wage growth number, the worry now turns to the next Fed move and higher interest rates.  If the economy is improving! Taking a hit are stocks with yield as higher government interest rates are competition for utility stocks and REITs. Also the dividend paying large caps could take a hit. 
• A stronger US dollar has meant that foreign denominated holdings take a hit on the exchange rate.  Of course now that the U.S. Dollar has had a big move one has to think that at some point it would be a good idea to buy as much foreign stuff as possible while the exchange rate is in the US favor.   The world continues to print money and avoid deflation, so who knows when the "right time" will be. Hard to time it but may make sense to start allocating there. I haven't yet. 
• One of my worries is interest payments on the national debt. If rates rise, so do the payments on our debt as previous debt comes due and we have to refinance at current rates.  
• Hey! Radio Shack declared bankruptcy! Man, that used to be the place to pick up some odd A/V part or wire before $AMZN.  Our shopping habits have evolved. 

***

Raining here in CA!  We need it but I don't like it on the weekends.  Anyway, it's a good day to watch TV. Maybe $DIS - ESPN.  And binge watch something on $NFLX.  That's what we do, right?

2015 Market Thoughts and Predictions

• I think the $SPY will see another double-digit year in 2015. Not a lot of bullishness out there yet.  I heard on the radio (so you know it must be true) that the people with money in stocks has dropped from 52% to 40%. 
• The casino stocks in Macau interest me. Yes the revenue in Macau casinos has declined. Isn't that priced in?  Nobody likes these names. $LVS for example. 
• Energy stocks and ETFs interest me.  But not until after this upcoming earnings season.  There is bad earnings news in the rear view mirror, and lowered guidance coming.  Let that happen and then see what things look like.  
• Hmm, that may also apply to those gaming stocks!
• Jim Harbaugh turns the Michigan Wolverines football program around. Quickly. 
• If there is a bubble, it is in biotechs.  How many IPOs have there been of companies with no sales?  Just stuff in some phase of trials. Be careful.  I think this could take down the good names, too - but I would stick with the good names that have sales and earnings. Like $CELG and $GILD just to name two (don't own em).
• I was at an outlet mall over the holidays. $UA and $NKE stores were packed.  Decreasing fuel prices mean more money to spend on other things. Same for $BWLD. PACKED!
• The Fox Business Block gurus didn't have a 2015 forecast show.  No predictions!
• Star Wars and Avengers 2 and who knows what else.  When I was in So Cal over the holidays Disney had to turn people away it was so crowded. And how much of your cable bill goes to ESPN?  Long $DIS. 
• I'm typing this in at $SBUX.  Very crowded here. 
• The minimum wage hikes caused the price of my pizza, movie and popcorn to increase this weekend.  More of that in all that we buy. The CPI shows the inflation.  Large employers like the govt that base annual raises on the CPI bump wages for their workers.  The Fed notices the CPI bump and raises rates.  People who pay interest on home, car, credit card and student loans pay more.  And the govt debt gets financed at higher rates.  The minimum wage hikes actually hurt those it is intended to help the most. [steps down off political soap box]
• Kobe Bryant retires.
• And finally, people will discover that placing a plate of pecans in the microwave for about three minutes makes for a very tasty treat.  The fad sweeps the nation, leading to a national shortage in pecans.  Get 'em while you can!

Disney, McDonalds, Market Thoughts and Sci Fi

• Still long stocks heading into year end. While it seems like many are talking about high valuations and the aging bull market, many are also talking about upbeat economic news such as Friday’s jobs report.  Jobs do tend to pick up later in an economic recovery, but that isn’t the same as ringing the bell at the top tick of the market.
• Assessing the fallout from the fall in oil prices.  Energy earnings expectations have continued to crater. On Monday, the fourth-quarter estimate was for a year-over-year decline of 11.2 percent for S&P energy stocks. By Friday, that had dropped to 14.7 percent decline.  I think a lot of people are trying to pick the bottom in oil stocks.  Be careful!
• Anyway, while I am long stocks I was hoping for a pullback to get more aggressive in high flying names.  That hasn’t happened.
• Which Was a Better Sci-Fi Film: Big Hero 6 or Interstellar?  Hmm…  (I haven’t watched either film).  But it’s hard not to like Disney stock - $DIS.  I do own that one.  Heck, they just raised their dividend by 34%! "Disney delivered the highest results in its history in Fiscal 2014, reflecting the extraordinary quality of our creative content and the unparalleled strength of our brands," said CEO Robert Iger.
• I do like Sci-Fi films.  I saw “Man of Steel” over the weekend on cable, and thought the combination of superhero and spaceships was cool. Now, I did go in with low expectations, and that helps, too.
• The Dow and SP500 made new highs last week, by the way.  The bull market marches forward.  Do you see a reason to sell before year end?  I don’t.  Heck, the Fed speaks on the 17th and at some point folks will worry about rising interest rates.  But I don’t think the Fed will ruin Christmas.
• $MCD – McDonalds trying a “Create Your Taste” program, where customers can order and customize their burgers from tablet-like kiosks instead of ordering from the counter.  Hmm… Well, facing competition and declining sales, the company was bound to try something.  (Long $MCD).
• I saw that some firm updated their price target on Facebook $FB to $105.  Heck, I’m still targeting $1000!  (It will just take a bit longer).

Monday Randomosity

· $SPY – It was a “Tower of Terror” day in the stock market. I hope you were smiling when your photo was taken. Please pick up your photo when you exit the ride.

· A “reversals” day in the market!  Started strong, and then WHOOSH down.  Then WHOOSH up.  Then uh oh, here we go again. 

· If you like low-wage jobs, then this economic recovery is for you!  “The National Employment Law Project reports that that low wage industries employ 1.85 million MORE workers now than at the start of the recession while mid-and higher-wage industries employ 1.83 million LESS.”

· Remember $SOCL, the social media ETF?  9-month lows.  That was one folks were buying to “get a piece of FB” last year.  I don’t know if it’s a bad investment for the long term, but I’d rather own a few specific tickers I believe in.  There seem to be a lot of tickers in that ETF that makes me wonder if they’ll even be around ten years down the road. 

· Advertisers backing out!  Used car dealership chain CarMax, airline Virgin America, and the Chumash Casino Resort said Monday that they are ending their sponsorships of the Clippers in the wake of comments allegedly made by the team's owner, Donald Sterling.  What an idiot.

· See, Chris Paul? Should have signed with the Lakers!

· $AMZN – Amazon down another 3% today.  I find it all rather shocking, since the company has a UPS truck on standby for deliveries to my house.  (I buy a lot from ‘em!)  I think it’s just a case where everything in growth land is being sold off right now.  No mercy.  Nowhere to hide.

· Except in $AAPL – Apple, as investors bought it up another 4% today.  The reason Apple shares are up is that because today if you own Apple it’s like owning a pie with 10 slices.  And in June, they’re going to take that same pie and carve it into 70 slices.  Who doesn’t want more slices?

· $MSFT – Microsoft moving ahead with XBOX original programming.  As in TV shows.  Hmm.  More competition for NFLX and just about everyone else.

· $DIS - Including Disney, by the way.  Don’t they have a deal with NFLX to make some Marvel mini-series soon?

· By the way, I was tired of constantly fixing my Windows 7 virus problems.  So I upgraded to Windows 8.1.  No more problems.  For now.  (The new Windows 8.1 OS is not as good without a touch screen, though.  But okay and actually seems faster than Windows 7).

· The Los Angeles Dodgers are struggling, but still near the top.  Not bad, because when the sticks and arms do start to click, that will be No Mercy on MLB, too.  *wishful thinking*