Monday, January 05, 2015

2015 Market Thoughts and Predictions

  • I think the $SPY will see another double-digit year in 2015. Not a lot of bullishness out there yet.  I heard on the radio (so you know it must be true) that the people with money in stocks has dropped from 52% to 40%. 
  • The casino stocks in Macau interest me. Yes the revenue in Macau casinos has declined. Isn't that priced in?  Nobody likes these names. $LVS for example. 
  • Energy stocks and ETFs interest me.  But not until after this upcoming earnings season.  There is bad earnings news in the rear view mirror, and lowered guidance coming.  Let that happen and then see what things look like.  
  • Hmm, that may also apply to those gaming stocks!
  • Jim Harbaugh turns the Michigan Wolverines football program around. Quickly. 
  • If there is a bubble, it is in biotechs.  How many IPOs have there been of companies with no sales?  Just stuff in some phase of trials. Be careful.  I think this could take down the good names, too - but I would stick with the good names that have sales and earnings. Like $CELG and $GILD just to name two (don't own em).
  • I was at an outlet mall over the holidays. $UA and $NKE stores were packed.  Decreasing fuel prices mean more money to spend on other things. Same for $BWLD. PACKED!
  • The Fox Business Block gurus didn't have a 2015 forecast show.  No predictions!
  • Star Wars and Avengers 2 and who knows what else.  When I was in So Cal over the holidays Disney had to turn people away it was so crowded. And how much of your cable bill goes to ESPN?  Long $DIS. 
  • I'm typing this in at $SBUX.  Very crowded here. 
  • The minimum wage hikes caused the price of my pizza, movie and popcorn to increase this weekend.  More of that in all that we buy. The CPI shows the inflation.  Large employers like the govt that base annual raises on the CPI bump wages for their workers.  The Fed notices the CPI bump and raises rates.  People who pay interest on home, car, credit card and student loans pay more.  And the govt debt gets financed at higher rates.  The minimum wage hikes actually hurt those it is intended to help the most. [steps down off political soap box]
  • Kobe Bryant retires.
  • And finally, people will discover that placing a plate of pecans in the microwave for about three minutes makes for a very tasty treat.  The fad sweeps the nation, leading to a national shortage in pecans.  Get 'em while you can!

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