Sunday, February 08, 2015

Sunday Market Thoughts (and Swimsuit!)

  • What a week for stocks and Sports Illustrated swimsuit models!
  • Ok ... China version ... Mika V is her name.   
  • The stock market had an amazing week. I am still long with only a very small amount in cash.  I think the trend is higher even though the market is now flat for the year!  We are seeing lower energy costs, higher employment and wage growth which is good for the consumer and economy. 
  • Brian Williams stepping down from the NBC anchor desk during the investigation. Lots of folks on $TWTR  and with Photoshop having fun. My thoughts are that if the guy faked a story when his job is to tell the news, he should be fired.
  • Okay, have you seen the "plus sized" US Sports Illustrated Swimsuit model? That would pass for skinny in my office. 
  • $DIS - Disney earnings were outstanding. I own the stock and will continue to add over the years.  Buy and hold forever? Not sure but seems likely unless something changes.  Disney is an entertainment juggernaut. 
  • $TWTR - I think Twitter will be a long term winner but don't own any shares.  I think the earnings report was good. Everyone goes there for instant news.  Although trolling and arguing gets tiresome.  Maybe that's why there are a lot of people who are on Twitter but don't do anything. 
  • I prefer $FB and where Facebook could go over the years.  
  • Energy - my thoughts are to buy energy weakness and be patient. The stuff doesn't ever seem to be low for very long. Some of the names have already had big moves. The only thing I own is $XOM because it is huge and diversified. 
  • With the jobs number and the wage growth number, the worry now turns to the next Fed move and higher interest rates.  If the economy is improving! Taking a hit are stocks with yield as higher government interest rates are competition for utility stocks and REITs. Also the dividend paying large caps could take a hit. 
  • A stronger US dollar has meant that foreign denominated holdings take a hit on the exchange rate.  Of course now that the U.S. Dollar has had a big move one has to think that at some point it would be a good idea to buy as much foreign stuff as possible while the exchange rate is in the US favor.   The world continues to print money and avoid deflation, so who knows when the "right time" will be. Hard to time it but may make sense to start allocating there. I haven't yet. 
  • One of my worries is interest payments on the national debt. If rates rise, so do the payments on our debt as previous debt comes due and we have to refinance at current rates.  
  • Hey! Radio Shack declared bankruptcy! Man, that used to be the place to pick up some odd A/V part or wire before $AMZN.  Our shopping habits have evolved. 
Raining here in CA!  We need it but I don't like it on the weekends.  Anyway, it's a good day to watch TV. Maybe $DIS - ESPN.  And binge watch something on $NFLX.  That's what we do, right?