Thursday, September 30, 2010

I Hope You Bought it Yesterday! $HYC

I hope you loaded up on $HYC yesterday. It is up 52% as I type.

Why the surge?

What do you think? will the shareholders be rewarded by the company rejecting the offer? Or will shares of HYC sell off when no other offers come?

Stay tuned! Add HYC to your watch list and watch the drama unfold. Hey, it's drama just like Hellcats, but without the cheerleaders.

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

#15: Market meanders, 1st day of the month pattern, mcdonalds, go home and campaign!

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Longer School Year?

Now, President Obama is trying to lose the kid vote.

But maybe that gets him the parent vote, as there is less idle kid time to manage!

I suppose teachers will want more money and larger pensions...

Contrarian Stuff

Mark Hulbert looks at the contrarian signs and says it looks bullish.

I can't help but think I'm not the only one who thinks that the end of quarter and month are going to keep sellers hard-pressed to move the market down much. Then October hits and then earnings where it could be a bit dicey. Especially after this huge move in September.

Bit Hulbert notes the skepticism by folks in his column at CBS Marketwatch.

I still think a pullback is coming. As does everyone else apparently. So it will either be a self-fulfilling prophecy or the market will climb the wall of worry.

I remain 100% invested.

Another hot day in CA. We used to call this Indian Summer. Now I guess it's just global warming or climate change or climate disruption. Whichever, it means pool time...

Monday, September 27, 2010

That's How They Got Wealthy!

Article in the WSJ that says many wealthy folks don't plan on retiring. They want to keep working.

What a shocker. This is the personality trait that most likely led to their wealth. They have a job they like, they're good at it, and they work hard. Why would you want to retire if you enjoy what you're doing?

My biggest hope for young folks is that they pursue what they like to do. And to do so with all their heart. That is what the American dream is still all about.

Market hovering around the plus or minus whenever I look. I still think we are due for a pullback but that end of quarter and end of month are acting as support. Still 100% long.

Monday night is dancing with the stars night, so here is Cheryl Burke!

Sunday, September 26, 2010

NFL Ticket Prices

Here is an article about the prices of NFL tickets. Ouch!

The New England Patriots come in the highest. Gee, no wonder folks can't afford to fund their retirement plans or send their kids to college.

"Pay your own damn tuition, son. I have seats at the 50-yard line!"

Wow, think of a family of four after paying for parking, tickets, and a few food items from the snack bar.

Friday, September 24, 2010

The Market Week

I mentioned in a previous entry and in the AudioBoo that I think the end of the quarter window dressing could provide a lift in the market. Still hanging with that thought.

The stock market shook off the doldrums and staged an impressive rally on Friday.

I was looking at the monitor with a few minutes left in the day, debating on whether or not to take some gains. But we have a few days in the month to go, and I think micromanaging this rally is overkill. I will think about it more over the weekend.

Getting ready for cooler whether. I did some house and yard work, and bought some pellets for the pellet stove.

Also, I see Netflix is going to start streaming NBC shows. Didn't NBC complain that Apple's $.99 rental price undervalued their shows? So now, they are included for free with a Netflix subscription. Er, okay. Netflix must be paying something. I don't know.

#14: iPads at Target, Bill Clinton on the Election, Early Stock Market Rally

Thursday, September 23, 2010

End of Quarter Window Dressing

Even with the market due for a pullback, window dressing for end of quarter and monthly strength from automatic 401(k) adds could keep the bulls in charge.

It's only the 23rd, and maybe this is drifting into conspiracy territory, but the institutions may try to load up and prop up the leading names for their quarterly reports. So any dip may be bought up quickly. Which seems to be what is going on today.

Just a thought.
Feeling much better today and back at work.

I actually stayed up and watched the Padres vs. Dodgers game last night. Boy, tough time for Dodger Blue!

Picture is of Grace Park from Hawaii Five-0, which I have on the DVR waiting to watch. I hear there is bikini.

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

#13 - Cold and flu, stock market rally, genetically altered salmon

Distribution Wednesday (and Bikini with a Sarong!)

image Well, yesterday there was slight distribution and today even more.  So unless there is a big rally to close out the day, we are looking at a pullback in the market.

It’s been a nice run.  We are due for a pullback. 

However, we are still in September and October is next.  The market has a history of a significant correction in the mid-term election year, followed by a big rally.  We did see a correction from spring into the summer, with the SP500 finding a low (and so far buyable) in the 1030-1050 range.

Will the pullback revisit the 1030-1050 range?  Exceed that?  My best guess is that a pullback won’t be more than a few percent.  But there may be some worries ahead of earnings season.  I think things are better than we’re reading in the headlines, but that hasn’t helped anyone find a job yet.  The current uneasiness about taxes and health care costs could be weighing on hiring decisions.


Remember, it is now fall.  So if you’re out at the beach, make sure you have a sarong to keep you warm if the weather chills a bit.

Home sick again.  But feeling much better today. 

It is good that I’m not at work making big decisions.  I went to pour some Rice Milk over my Cheerios, and grabbed the box of chicken broth instead.  Whoa, salty. 

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Home Sick Update - Jim Cramer

I dabbled in Mad Money today. Yes, watched some Jim Cramer (not pictured).

The show is kind of entertaining. I wouldn't trade off it, but it's watchable. I just hope folks aren't getting hurt.

There is more to investing than hot stock tips and market timing. And while I may do both from time to time, that's after years of learning and experience. The three important things to learn are asset allocation, diversification and risk tolerance. IMHO, of course.

Another picture of Nikita's Maggie Q.

Tuesday Cold and Flu Randomosity (and Maggie Q!)

  • imageWell, the market has been on a tear.  I remain 100% long, and wondering when it will all end.  Not seeing many signs of distribution.  Staying with it for now.
  • Yes, I have a flu or a cold or something.  I think a flu.  Anyway, hit me the last day in Reno and now I’m just hanging out at home sleeping.
  • Picture is of Maggie Q, star of Nikita.  Which, I have yet to watch but, you betcha, I’m recording it.
  • The Federal Reserve is worriedSuggesting more bond purchases to stimulate growth could soon take place, Fed officials said at the end of their one-day policy meeting they are uncomfortable with the recent, very low levels of inflation, adding they expect the economy's recovery from a deep recession to be modest in the near term.
  • Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared Tuesday that capitalism faces inevitable defeat  Is that because of Obamacare or Christine O’Donnell?  …the Iranian leader blamed capitalism and transnational corporations for "the suffering of countless women, men and children in so many countries."  Gee, those sound like Progressive Democrat talking points.
  • Lindsay Lohan… Paris Hilton…  Bad girls and their cocaine.  Well, obviously here is an example of how women who really have it all, can blow it by making bad choices.  Drug use never made anyone a better person.  Well, maybe it’s capitalism’s fault, Mahmoud.
  • I watched Dancing with the Stars.  Yes, Brandy seems to have an edge. 
  • I mentioned awhile back that I was reading the Ultimate Dividends book.  Seems to me that after the last 10 years in the market, dividend payers have probably trounced growth stocks.  But that isn’t always the case over intermediate periods of time.  And I keep reading stories about how to buy dividend stocks.  So, I’m going to pass for now.  Maybe if the market continues to rally in growth names, I will eventually rotate out into some companies that pay dividends.  But, not now.
  • Hey, Christine O’Donnell way behind in the Delaware senate race polling.  Maybe it’s time for her to cast a spell on the voters!  Okay, kidding aside, I don’t think the election is about witchcraft or masturbation.  Maybe a little about the latter.  But how do you want votes cast on issues like taxes, the budget, and health care?  Because Coons will vote for higher taxes, more deficits, and to keep Obamacare.  It’s up to the Delaware voters, of course.

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Economists on the Bush Tax Cuts

Economists have chimed in on the Bush tax cuts, and recommend that all of the tax cuts are extended.

Economists suggest that extending the tax cuts for all taxpayers is the most important thing congress can do to help the economy.

And if that doesn't work, I'm thinking the next thing we try is dabbling in witchcraft. Hey, voodoo economics worked in the 80's, right?

Harry Reid's Campaign Slogan

I saw a Harry Reid campaign slogan: "No one can do more." More damage? More harm? More job losses? More foreclosures?

Seems like Senator Reid's campaign slogan is an incomplete sentence yearning for an additional word or two.

In Reno. Not doing great at the sports bets this weekend.

Friday, September 17, 2010

Constitution Day Randomosity

  • The early morning stock pop faded quickly, and now the market is relatively flat.  Profit taking and resting after a huge run or running into the top of the trading range and ready to go back down?  Hmm…
  • What else is flat?  Inflation!  So, that’s good news for those worried about the Fed jumping in and raising rates, and crushing the bond market.
  • Americans’ net worth falls.
  • So where is the oil from the gulf oil spill?  On the gulf floor, say the scientists.  So all that stuff about oil being lighter than water and rising to the top was a bunch of garbage.  Well, there isn’t scientific consensus.  The science isn’t settled:

Not all scientists agree with this assessment.

Ed Overton, a Louisiana State University chemist who has analyzed the spill for NOAA, doubted much oil was resting on the bottom. He said the heavier components in oil — the asphalts — make up only about 1 percent of the oil that was spilled.

And Roger Sassen, an organic geochemist at Texas A&M University who has studied natural oil seeps, said so much oil seeps naturally into the Gulf each year that it's hard to argue that the BP spill will make a significant difference.

Thursday, September 16, 2010

Celebrate Market Rally with Diesel Disco 78

It’s been quite a rally from the bottom of the summer’s trading range.  Lets celebrate our good fortune with Diesel Disco 78 by Hexstatic.  I’m heading up to Reno to blow off some steam that only the Finnish can match.  If my football picks are anywhere as good as this dancing, then … well, buckets of money. 

Housing Prices Only Go Down

An interesting column from AP on real estate.

Remember it was just a few years ago when folks were anxious to buy a hone because prices only go up, and soon they wouldn't be able to afford a home.

How times have changed.

Now, folks are convinced that prices will continue to fall and rates will go lower, so they don't feel the need to act immediately. Oh, and there is also the risk of job loss.

It will be interesting to see what happens when rates do turn back up.

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Mountains of Cash Tuesday

$CSCO to start paying a dividend!

More news out that companies seem to be doing okay and the economy isn't as bad as the doom and gloomers say. Cisco in the after-hours. Best Buy earlier.

I remain 100% invested. Today is the first day that felt a little blah. But the market has had quite a run the past two weeks. I still think the market is vulnerable in Sept and Oct to the historical pattern.

But, staying long for now. Any pullbacks seem buyable or a chance to reallocate at this point.

Blogging may be a little light this week. Work and life events. But I will be on Twitter more to fill in the gaps. That's @muckdog!

Saturday, September 11, 2010

Saturday Reminder: The More Things Change...

"The U.S. economy remains almost comatose . . . The current slump already ranks as the longest period of sustained weakness since the Great Depression . . . Once-in-a-lifetime dislocations . . .will take years to work out. Among them: the job drought, the debt hangover, the defense-industry contraction, the banking collapse, the real-estate depression, the health-care cost explosion, and the runaway federal deficit."

The article then discloses that was Time magazine's analysis of the economy in its September, 1992 issue, when the Dow was at 3,390, and the economy was still struggling to pull out of the 1991 recession.

Read the whole article from Sy Harding.

Excellent reminder that the economic cycle has not been repealed.

Friday, September 10, 2010

September Rally Continues

The market continued to rally today, although on very light volume. Also notice how the semiconductor stocks are not participating.

I go into the week 100% long, but a little concerned that maybe there is some selling ahead of us. And also concerned that my fantasy football teams may be a little underwhelming.

  • So I read an ebook this week. Ultimate Dividend something or other via the Kindle app on the iPad. Its from a guy at Morningstar who, ahem, writes their dividend investor newsletter The thought is, that growth stocks underperform quality dividend stocks if you reinvest dividends. Of course we are in a ten year period of that. But it seems to be true over historically longer periods, a long as one follows certain rules. Eh. It was a good read, though. A food for thought kind of book.
  • 10yr Treasury drops 2.5% in ten days. Yup. As I have been blogging, it won't end well for those rushing into "safe" treasuries.
  • President Obama says voter anger could hurt Democrats in November. Wow. Who knew? That's completely out of left field. I thought those tea parties were all about the Earl Gray.
  • So Marshall had a nice lead hosting West Virginia. In the 4th, Marshall up 21-6, fumbles at the WVU 4 yard line. Blah blah blah overtime blah blah blah WVU wins. Go read about it. Amazing, yet predictable, comeback.

Thursday, September 09, 2010

Thursday is NFL Night

The market? The market?

The NFL season starts tonight. I'm starting Brett Favre on one of my (way too many) fantasy football teams. I'm leaving work early to pile in a sports bar.

It's all about the NFL today.

Oh, and the market was up. Something about better economic news or pricing in the Koran burning in Florida. There is always a reason.

I'm still 100% invested.

By the way, Koran burning? Really? What the heck is up with that? Whatever happened to "teaching the good news" at church? There is enough hate in the world. Didn't Christ teach to love one another?

Tuesday, September 07, 2010

Tuesday Market Thoughts

Still 100% long. Decided to let last week's buys run. They ran into a wall today. Not feeling too bad about it.

Yes, September is a dismal month historically. But I think I bought near the bottom of the summer's trading range and I'm not going to get too fancy with it. I believe the market is heading higher, and avoiding the brunt of the summer (and election year) correction was the plan.

Something about "trading the plan" comes to mind. But I do feel that reviewing the plan is a good idea. And when we were near the bottom of the trading range last Monday with the gloom very thick, it seemed to me that buying into the Labor Day and monthly strength pattern made sense.

We shall see!


Was at a bread and breakfast over the weekend up in the foothills. In the middle of nowhere. Very different.

Pic is of Carolina Marconi.

Thursday, September 02, 2010

Investors Flee Stocks for ... The Next Bubble?

This USA Today column caught my eye. Investors believe bonds are safer.


Near historic low yields.

After a major bond rally.

So, investors got caught up in the 90's stock bubble. "Just click it in there, Mr. B" (remember Ameritrade commercial?). That wiped them out.

Investors got caught up in the housing bubble. "Sure, the mortgage is more than you make in a month, sir. But you can just flip the house in a month or so and make tens of thousands of dollars. No money down. Just sign here. And say, as you were signing, your equity went up $40,000. Would you like to borrow that out via a home equity loan and get a new car or go on vacation? That's your money. Unleash that equity!" Well, yeah.

Now, bonds are safe. Uh huh. And they're probably in bond funds, right? "After all, sir, you need the experience of a Bond manager and diversification. And you know, these short term funds only yield a percent. Let's go out a little longer for more yield."

Well, I think we know what's coming next.

Meandering Market Thursday

The market deviating a bit today from the pre-Labor Day week pattern. $$

Yes the pattern calls for a relatively flat day, but negative. We are drifting a bit higher as I type on my iPhone.

What does it mean?

Well, if you've been reading awhile, you know I pay attention to history. Not that things will repeat exactly, but things do tend to look familiar. The pre-Labor Day week has been up in the past, and we are in the pay day period where money is put in 401k plans.

Everyone was warning about September. But the market took a 7% hit in August. The gloom was thick. So maybe a lot of September was priced in during August.

Another thought is that maybe this is just a sigh or pause in the selling.

Everyone is anticipating a gloomy jobs number tomorrow. It will be interesting to see if that's priced in and the Labor Day pattern overrides the gloom.

Wednesday, September 01, 2010

Wednesday Randomosity (and Virtual Girlfriends!)

  • image Market rally was nice today.  If pattern holds, then tomorrow is flat and Friday is a rally.  Wouldn’t that be something if the market did exactly what it has done historically this week?
  • The “other” big news today?  Steve Jobs decided Apple would try TV again.  There will be a new Apple TV device that sells for $99, TV shows rent for 99 cents, and movies for $4.99.  You will also be able to stream Netflix movies.
  • Will everyone now believe that Apple invented streaming content to your TV? 
  • Seems kind of underwhelming.  The Roku box does movies, Amazon streaming, MLB, and Netflix’s instant streaming library.  I’m sure the Apple device will be nice, but who wants to pay $.99 for a TV rental?  That seems lame when you can watch Hulu or record shows on a DVR.  And $4.99 per movie is pricey when Red Box is $1 a night and Netflix streams movies in an all-you-can-view for $9 a month format. 
  • How does Apple TV compare to Roku
  • Outlook dimming for DemocratsThe Cook Political Report, a newsletter that tracks congressional races, now lists 68 Democratic House seats as being at "substantial risk," up from 62 in July and 58 in June, and the group plans to raise the figure to more than 70 this week. Other pollsters and analysts have also increased their list of Democrats they now consider imperiled. By comparison, less than 10 Republican-held seats are thought to be in jeopardy. Before the Republicans start dancing in the end zone and celebrating in the 3rd quarter, they may want to press on and make sure they finish the game.
  • imageIn Japan, real men go to a hotel with virtual girlfriendsAfter choosing one of three female characters—goodie-goodie Manaka, sassy Rinko or big-sister type Nene—to be a steady girlfriend, the player taps a stylus on the DS touch-screen in order to walk hand-in-hand to school, exchange flirtatious text messages and even meet in the school courtyard for a little afternoon kiss. Using the device's built-in microphone, the player can carry on sweet, albeit mundane, conversations.  Pictured above and here.
  • So. Yeah, okay.  Who would you pick? 
  • Had my fantasy football draft last night.  Eh.  We shall see.  Nothing is more boring than someone talking their fantasy football lineup.  Except, maybe, talking about their virtual girlfriend.

Wednesday Market Thoughts

Well, yes.   I am happy with the Labor Day trade I made on Monday.  I remain 100% invested in high-beta stocks.

So today will probably qualify as an Investors Business Daily follow through day.  Nice price move.  Nice volume day. 

I don’t know what’s getting the credit.  The ISM number?

image"Investor sentiment was so negative that any flicker of light was going to move sentiment with quite a roar, and that's what we got," said Anthony Chan, chief economist at J.P. Morgan Private Wealth Management. "With the purchasing-managers index coming out of two largest economies in the world—China and the U.S.—coming in larger than expected, you can't ignore that this is good news."

"If there are markets that are growing, U.S. companies can prosper, regardless of the domestic labor markets in the next few months," said Jerry Webman, chief economist and senior investment officer with OppenheimerFunds.

Dow up 2.5%. 

SP500 up 2.6%

Nasdaq up 3%.

QQQQ up 2.99% and the VB up 3.69%