Tuesday, January 31, 2012

The Super Bowl Indicator

The Super Bowl Indicator has an 80% accuracy record. If the NFC wins the market goes up. If the AFC wins the market goes down.

Go Giants!

posted from Bloggeroid

Best January Since 1997

The market had another one of those days, although it started out different. Instead of heading down initially and rallying into the close, stocks opened higher, sold off, then trended up into the close. The January rally was the best since 1997, but the last week has been a little sloppy. The market has been on a nice run, and most folks are looking for a consolidation or pullback. But that can mean this kind of sideways and listless action.

The news flow was somewhat interesting. Getting the blame for the selling was a drop in consumer confidence. Europe also contributed its usual stuff, with optimism over a Greece deal and worry over Portugal. It's always something over there!

I remain about 80% long at this time.

posted from Bloggeroid

Monday, January 30, 2012

Would Jim Rogers Buy Facebook? No!

Would Jim Rogers buy Facebook IPO? No! I can't blame him. The fish are biting, though. The Nasdaq is near 11 year highs as I type. Even today's early morning swoon is met with buyers by the end of the day. Today was similar to Friday, in that any weakness is bought up. That's pretty bullish. Yet, we are extended and at those highs I mentioned early.

Could the Facebook IPO be the end of the rally?


posted from Bloggeroid

Friday, January 27, 2012

#139: News of the day, Romney or Gingrich? Obama vs. Brewer, Retirement in the US

Thursday, January 26, 2012

Nintendo Loses $575 Million!

Whoa! Nintendo lost $575 million bucks! Remember when it was hard to find the Nintendo Wii? Or when the handheld Nintendo DS was the handheld game to have. That was years ago, believe it or not. In the meantime, the gaming system has been under pressure by the more powerful Microsoft XBOX 360 and Sony PS3, while the handheld is losing ground to the iPhone and Android phones - tablets, too.

Nintendo is promising Wii U in the Fall, while Microsoft is planning the next generation of the XBOX in 2013.

$575 million dollars . Yikes.

posted from Bloggeroid

The End of DSL?

I read that ATT lost well over 600K DSL subscribers in the 4th quarter of 2011. Now, in 2011 I switched from ATT DSL to ATT U-verse. But it seems that not all of the folks leaving DSL went to U-verse. ATT actually lost customers to cable internet.

People are craving bandwidth for streaming movies, playing games, and surfing the web. All our iPads and Androids consume bandwidth to download music and web content. DSL is just too slow.

I was surprised that more folks weren't signing up for U-verse. But not all homes have fiber to the house, and that sends them to the cable companies to get the bandwidth they need.

posted from Bloggeroid

Quick Market Thoughts

The stock market had been strong this week, but showed a little weakness today. There are lots of news stories floating by. Apple's earnings were amazing. Netflix is the comeback kid. But there have also been a few misses. Europe and Greece and such are still there, but largely ignored this week. The Fed says they're going to keep interest rates low half-way through the 2nd Obama term, or 2014. The President is promising free student loans and cheap refinancing for all.

The stock market looks tired to me. I think we're due for a pullback The Black Box has re-iterated a sell signal. If I was scaling out of stocks, I'd have three sell points at this point

I have reduced my long positions by about 20%, which leaves me - tada! lets do the math together - about 80% long. But I could sell more at any point. Or go back long. Or put the cash on a super bowl bet.

Hmmm.... Does everyone love the New York Giants and the points? Might lean the other way.

Still struggling through this stupid cold. Cough. Walking the dog but haven't felt up to a podcast or audioboo.

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Obama’s State of the Union: Tax, Tax, Tax!

imageAll I heard in President Obama’s State of the Union was “raise taxes” and blah, blah, blah.


Seriously!  It sounds noble and altruistic to go after those evil people who make money.  But it’s THEIR money.  They worked hard.  They earned it.  They’re even following the current tax laws in the tax code, and paying what they owe to the government.  If they feel under taxed and want to contribute additional money to the Treasury, this rich folks are free to write a check!  I’m looking at you, Warren Buffett.

When you add up the federal tax rate, the state tax rate, the local tax rate (in some cities), the payroll tax (Social Security and Medicare – and double it for the self-employed), many of The Rich are already paying over 50% in taxes.

Over 50% in taxes.  That’s not enough? 

I didn’t even include sales taxes, and everything else from taxes to fees on our homes, utility bills, cell phone bills, etc…

We’re all taxed enough, Mr. President.

Apple Surges on Earnings! It’s Raining Money!

image$AAPL – Apple is known for sandbagging their estimates and killing on the numbers.  But Chinese fighting for iPhone 4s phones can’t be wrong.  Everyone wants an iPhone.

No exceptions.

Apple has the formula of delivering the must-have phone of the year once a year, and is now rolling the phones out world-wide.

It’s raining money.

Sunday, January 22, 2012

Terrell Owens is Broke!

Terrell OwensTerrell Owens is broke! $44,600 a month in child support can be tough financially.

The bottom line is that he made poor investment decisions along the way. The career of an athlete is far shorter than those of us with desk jobs. While they make a lot of money in the short term, it is difficult to recover from bad decisions.


Saturday, January 21, 2012

Newt Gingrich Wins South Carolina Primary

newt gingrichIs Newt Gingrich the new Comeback Kid? Newt surges in the polls this past week to overcome Mitt Romney in South Carolina. This is a pretty big win and it would seem as if the momentum is with Gingrich. Romney seems to be fading. The big surprise is how Gingrich is faring amongst the independents. We have been told that Mitt was the only one who could beat Obama, but it looks as if the independents actually went for Newt.

One thing for sure is that I think Gingrich is a better debater, and the head-to-head meetings with Obama would be more entertaining than would a Romney-Obama debate.

On to Florida...
posted from Bloggeroid

#138: Stocks, Black Box, South Carolina Primary

It's All Greek to Me!

greeceThe talks in Greece over new debt have broken down. This is the deal where existing bond holders get shafted for about 50% and get issued new bonds. One of the stumbling blocks is over the interest rates of the new debt. The IMF and Germany are looking for rates lower than 4%, to help Greece manage their interest payments.

Talks broke down, but the article says folks are available by phone. What does that mean? Don't call me, I'll call you? Can I get your phone number, baby?

Why not just send text messages back and forth? That's what all the kids are doing these days! Er, and probably adults, too.

posted from Bloggeroid

Weak Treasuries!

TreasuriesDid you read that Treasuries are off to their worst start since 2003?

And it was just early last week that the 30-year rate fell below 4%! I bet that will get harder and harder to find as the calendar moves along.

The bottom line is that world economies continue to grow. China's GDP was huge. The US continues to add jobs as the employment numbers improve. The fly in the ointment continue to be Europe. Greece is in the headlines today, as worries about their new debt could impact markets on Monday.

The US stock market seems to be on a bit of a rally and could be overbought and due for a correction. But that is awfully difficult to predict. Right now, stocks are rallying and ignoring bad news. For example, the Google miss on Thursday could have been a catalyst for a market disaster. While Friday was weak with the Dow leading thanks to IBM and Microsoft, the Nasdaq was down.

As for Treasuries, I think everyone can see the elephant in the room - rates are going to find it easier to move higher than go lower.

posted from Bloggeroid

Friday, January 20, 2012

Are Investors Too Complacent?

Tesla Motors Exec Departs - Shares Plunge

$TSLA: Tesla Motors executive departs - but, did he depart in an electric car?

My guess? Probably not.
Peter Rawlinson, Tesla's vice president and chief engineer, "has decided to step away to tend to personal matters in the UK."
There you go. My thought is that electric cars are a tough sell at this point. Tesla stock plunged about 20%.

posted from Bloggeroid

Is the US in a Recession?

I was reading that Gary Shilling says the US is in a recession in the first quarter of 2012. He believes that there is a global recession right now, and that it started in Europe and is heading here.

My thoughts are that there have been lots of folks predicting gloom and doom for the last couple of years. Especially since Europe has been dealing with debt and as the US struggles with sluggish growth.

In the US, we are starting to see better economic numbers. We're now seeing the jobs numbers pick up, too. Meanwhile, inflation indicators remain low and allow the Fed to continue to keep rates low. One of the biggest booms for the US economy going forward is the ability for homeowners to lock in historically low interest rates. Money not sent to the banks in mortgage payments is money in folks' pockets.

posted from Bloggeroid

posted from Bloggeroid

Thursday, January 19, 2012

60% of South Carolina GOP Voters Retired

In South Carolina, 60% of the GOP registered voters are retired.  Over the last decade, many retirees have moved to SC to take advantage of the warmer weather.  (Maybe lower taxes, too?)


It's an interesting demographic in that these folks probably are conservative both fiscally and socially, but probably don't want the government touching their Social Security.


From the Los Angeles Times.  By the way, that's an excellent app for the iPad.


Market Trend Up Continues

The market rally continues with good jobs data and stronger than expected earnings numbers. Apple also announced iBooks for text books.

I'm still long despite the sell signal from the Black Box last Friday. No reason to fight the trend.

I have a cold. So that's why no Audioboos / Podcasts this week. My voice is crap and it hurts to talk.

posted from Bloggeroid

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

A Kodak Moment

Kodak files for bankruptcy.  Everyone say “Cheese!”


Goldman Sachs Earnings

imageWoohoo!  $GS Goldman Sachs earnings less dreary than expected!  If that isn’t  reason to drive the Nasdaq higher, what is?  The Nasdaq led the market today, with an improving sentiment in housing combined with the $GS earnings.  “We started off on a positive footing because certain financial earnings weren’t as bad as investors had feared, but most of the uptick came from home-builders’ confidence reaching a level not seen since 2007. Now we have two areas, jobs and housing, which are critical foundations, and both are seeing signs of improvement.” - Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago.

The continuing theme of slow growth, uh, continues.  There really was no reason to fear a recession.  It appears as if there were a lot of folks leaning the wrong way.  We are seeing a pick up in most all of the economic data, but not at a rate that is going to make the Fed jump in and kill it.

Meanwhile, the Black Box sell signal has a bit of egg on its face so far.  Which is why I don’t follow it as a mechanical system. Still, it usually isn’t wrong – and when it is wrong, it’s not by much.  It is still at a point where a whoosh down would create a second sell signal.  It’s not unprecedented to see consecutive sell or buy signals within a few percent of each other, as the market reaches overbought or oversold levels.

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Lame Rumor - Why Would Samsung want to buy Research in Motion?

imageI was reading the headlines and saw this article asking why Samsung would want to buy Research in Motion.  Good grief, it sounds like a bad idea to me.  The Blackberry craze is oh-so-2004 headline news.  The Research in Motion tablet, whatever that thing was called, flopped. I get it.  That's a rumor that makes no sense whatsoever!

January Expiration Week

imageI was paging through the Stock Trader's Almanac 2012 this evening and looking at the historical trend for options expiration week in January.  It hasn't been pretty.

While the first trading day of the week tends to be positive, the week as a whole tends to be a bit ugly.  Especially the last two trading days of the week.Maybe that Black Box sell signal will work out after all.  We shall see.


The picture is from the Android CNBC app.  Nice, huh?

posted from Bloggeroid

The Black Box Sell Signal (Follow Up)

So, the Black Box gave a sell signal on the $QQQ Friday.  The market gapped up today, pulled back, and rallied into the close.  I didn’t think it was a strong day.  That being said, the market is up the day after the Black Box gave a sell signal.  That doesn’t happen very often. 

But, it does happen. Of course it does. 

I am still 100% long.  With sort of a mental stop.  No reason to sell if the market keeps moving higher.

Monday, January 16, 2012

Black Box Sell Signal (Update)

imageThis is the Black Box sell signal on the $QQQ.   Just to get the picture up.

I might sell a bit tomorrow, but I’m reminded of a similar move in January, 2011!  Of course, that did work out eventually, but not after a move higher.

The Polaroid Android Camera

imageDid you hear about the new Polaroid Android camera announced at CES 2012?  It's a point and shoot camera that runs the Android operating system, and allows sharing photos with social media websites - you know the names.


But don't we already have Android, or iOS, devices that come with a point-and-shoot camera and allow uploading to social media sites?  Is there a compelling reason to buy the Polaroid?

posted from Bloggeroid

The $6 Billion Man - er, $0 Billion!

imageHave you read about Ireland's Sean Quinn (not pictured) ?  He was worth about $6B (in US dollars) and is now filing for bankruptcy.  He may not be able to resume business activities for 12 years!

Whenever I see a story like this, I wonder what is really happening?  We tend to raise eyebrows and wonder if the $6B was earned legitimately, right?  Then even if the guy goes broke, does anyone have a doubt that he will somehow come into money again down the road?

posted from Bloggeroid

MLKjr Randomosity!

imageWell, I had a randomosity post all created but then the Android tablet crashed and took my post with it.  Bottom line, is that I linked to a story about the European index actually closing up today despite the debt downgrade from last week.  Really?  Yeah really.

I also mentioned that oil prices were back on the rise due to the Nigerian crisis.  The US gets about 8% of our oil from there. You think it would be a good idea to get some more oil from Canada via the Keystone pipeline.  But heck, taking more risk is more fun.  Let's continue to import oil from unstable nations instead!  By the way, gasoline prices continue to climb.  Not a big deal for those of you who don't drive cars I suppose!

I linked to an article about states trying to raise taxes on millionaires.  While that grabs headlines, what is really happening in CA is that Governor Jerry Brown is also trying to raise the state sales tax.  You tell me if that's a tax only millionaires pay.  I don't think so.

Finally, I mentioned the black box sell signal and my lack of a decision on what to do so far.  I'm thinking about booking some gains.

Anyway.  On with the long weekend.

posted from Bloggeroid

Sunday, January 15, 2012

Black Box Sell Signal

Well, the Black Box triggered a sell signal Friday at the close.  $$  Unfortunately, the news flow is negative as I type and I wonder if the market will gap down on Tuesday and deny the chance to exit near the sell signal.

Not sure what I will do.  I feel mixed.  I hate to get too conservative during the monthly strength period - I did that last January!

Tomorrow is a market holiday.  That gives me time to think.

I'm out and about.  More tomorrow.

Saturday, January 14, 2012

The Government Adds Fees to Mortgages - New and Refinanced

imageWith interest rates near record lows, many homeowners and potential new home buyers are contemplating locking in for the deal of a life time.  But Congress has added new fees to any new mortgage or refinance.  That's right!  The government wants a piece of your monthly payment!  Isn't this a tax hike?  And a stealth tax hike at that! It is a bit frustrating to see that the government is trying to take advantage of people who are trying to make it from month to month by adding additional costs to the mortgage.  While the homeowner will benefit from a lower payment, the payment isn't as low as it could be without the tax hike. Shame, shame, shame...

Nigerian Oil

Nigerian Oil makes up about 8% of our domestic consumption.

Of course, oil is a global commodity and every barrel drilled is consumed somewhere. Any impact to the global supply hits all of us in the pocketbook.

posted from Bloggeroid

Friday, January 13, 2012

Marines Identified

The urinating Marines identified: George Bush and Mitt Romney, the latter who also routinely urinated on people fired from companies while he ran Bain, dressed up and did the deed.

Of course, I'm joking - but, it is troubling to see the Marines conducting themselves in such a way. Strange how we're more bothered by the urinating than the fact that the people were killed. But this was a pretty senseless act.

There is an unwritten word that you don't speak ill of the dead. I think we can add "urinate on" to that list, too. Even though we are at war with extremists, once the threat has been eliminated, respect the dead.

At our core, when you strip us of our clothes, uniforms, weapons, and ideology, we are all God's children. Show respect. Feel remorse for the corpses at our feet. Pray to God that he will forgive us.

posted from Bloggeroid

Downgrade Friday! Euro-style!

I blogged earlier about $JPM leading the news du jour, but the Euro nation downgrade list is really the big news.  Look at this mess (from the USA Today).  A total of nine countries downgraded!  Who was spared?  Germany!  Their country may be on the cusp of a recession, but other than that I guess things are fine.

I noticed some of my favorite gold bugs launched into some heavy gold positions today.  Something to watch.  Looks like - fundamentally - they're on to something.

#137: Stocks Swoon, France Downgrade, Apple, Siri, Android, Transformer Prime

Big Profits at JPMorgan? Oops!

$JPM - U.S. Stock Futures Decline After JPMorgan’s Profit Retreats 23%

At least we can't blame Europe today. I suppose we knew JPM was having problems. Now it's official!

The market has had a nice move. The Black Box is on the verge of a sell signal so we will see what happens next.

posted from Bloggeroid

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

The Market Crawl

It is nice to see the grind higher. As the market defies the experts who warn us about Europe, deficits, Occupy Wall Street, the growing segregation between the rich and the poor, yadda yadda yadda, earnings are rolling in and the economy continues to grow. Even new jobs are being added now!

(I'm just testing Bloggeroid after the Transformer Prime Ice Cream Sandwich update.)

posted from Bloggeroid

Black Box Update

As promised in the podcast / audioboo, here is the Black Box update fpr the $QQQ.  No sell signal yet.image

#136: Stocks, German Economy, CES 2012, ASUS Tramsformer Prime and Ice Cream Samdwich

Energy Stocks Swoon

Energy stocks take a hit. And natural gas futures slip to $2.80.

Wouldn't it be nice if we could use natural gas in our cars?

Did you see Cabot Oil and Gas hit for 11% today?

Meanwhile, even though the market had a chance to go down today, it recovered and mostly finished in the green. Small caps seem to be at the head of the pack.

Twinkies Can't go Bankrupt!

hostessHostess going bankrupt? Twinkies? Government bailout! Quick!

If this doesn't meet the qualifications of a national crisis, what does?

Market is meandering around today. Earnings season kicking into gear. Euro crisis still in the foreground. Lots of jello moving on the plate, as they say.

Still long...

Monday, January 09, 2012

Bigger Kickoff - Alcoa or Alabama vs LSU?

AlcoaIs the biggest kickoff today Alcoa or Alabama-LSU?

Alcoa kicked off earnings season, and while struggling to make money due to plunging aluminum prices, the company projected increasing demand for the metal.

(Maybe due to the all-aluminum casing of the ASUS Transformer Prime Android tablet - lol)

Alcoa is trading up after hours so lets call this an early win for earnings season. Like scoring on the first possession after kick off!

Speaking of, I took Alabama at the beginning of the season to win the BCS at 5-1.

Roll Tide.

It's Mon-AlcoaEuro-Day!

Earnings The market is up softly as I type, as earnings season kicks off. Alcoa! We also have the euro watch going on, as usual. Of course, earnings season only happens four times a year, while the euro watch happens every frackin' day. Seriously! Do you think anyone will realize that throwing more debt at countries with debt problems will actually help? (we need to look in the mirror on this, too). But, bottom line in the US, is that we have slow economic growth. It is growth! I suspect earnings will continue to show increasing profits, but forward looking caution and hesitation. I'm still invested at 100% equities. The black box could go on a sell signal at any time, though. Will I follow it blindly this year? That's always the question! Have a good Monday!

Sunday, January 08, 2012

Testing Bloggerdroid

This is a test of boggerdroid.

This is adding another image.

posted from Bloggeroid

Saturday, January 07, 2012

Stock Market Begins Year with a Rally!

stock market up in januaryThe stock market begins January with a rally. As goes January, so goes the year? And the first 5 days?I've read some debunking of this. Somewhat. Paraphrasing, that if the market is up in January, it's already up for the year and likely to finish up -- since it's already up. 

I suppose that's like if I eat 3000 calories by noon, I'm more likely to finish the day with more calories than I need. Something like that. 

Anyway, we will take it, right? I remain 100% invested and pretty aggressively long. I will note that the Black Box is heading to a potential sell signal. I'm not going to act prematurely. But that is out there. And we are in the bullish season. 

Watching Bulls and Bears ahead of the NFL games today. The SP500 and Dow are up 89% since March 9, 2009. The Nasdaq 111%. 


The wind is blowing like crazy today. Thus, I'm not sure I'll head out on a bike ride or just sit on the sofa working on the box of See's candies. Prioritize!

Thursday, January 05, 2012

The ASUS Transformer Prime and Android... Thoughts

More thoughts on the ASUS Transformer Prime, one week in... Pros and cons.

  • Very fast performance. Zippy. Smooth and fast scrolling.
  • My apps aren't crashing, like on the iPad 1.
  • Light weight. Feels good in hands. Comfortable to hold.
  • Camera takes good pictures.
  • Screen is pretty. Games look very good.
  • Decent battery life. The charge lasts about two evenings worth of use.
  • Android isn't as smooth and polished as Apple's iOS. I've had a few issues where I've been combing message boards for answers.
  • But, good and active Android message board community, as folks seem to be facing similar issues.
  • Skype video calls not working.
  • The GPS is slow, but works for me. I am usually in a wi-fi zone, so the GPS antenna behind aluminum problems haven't been an issue for me.
  • Missing Wall Street Journal app!
  • The USA Today, Skygrid, 360 News apps are Great! I like them better on Android than Apple iOS.
  • The Android Marketplace has a lot fewer tablet apps than the Apple app store. And then it isn't easy to identify apps that are made specifically for tablets.
  • I like the Amazon marketplace free app of the day!

Econ Professor for President!

econ professorSee the Econ Professor who is going to run for President? A third party ticket! I think he should have a bumper sticker that says "2012: On the one hand, but on the other hand" or some such thing. It is a year where we are tired of the sluggish economy and the government mucking around of the jobs numbers. Does anyone really believe that the unemployment number going down by removing job seekers from the equation is real progress? Get real! I suppose we're going to get some pretty curious numbers for the next 11 months until the election Yes, we have economic growth. There is that, no matter how slow it is. Anyway, this all leads to the third party Econ Professor. That will keep it interesting...

Wednesday, January 04, 2012

Bonds for the Long Run

Here is a column fro the USA Today about how bonds have outperformed stocks!

Yes, I may be thinking that this is a contrarian set up.

#135: Republicans, Iowa, ASUS Transformer Prime, Stocks 2012 Rally, Oil

Tuesday, January 03, 2012

Almost Biggest Market Day Ever!

Today's 2012 first-trading day market rally was the third largest for the Dow and fourth largest for the SP500 and Nasdaq. Ever.

So that's a good thing, right?

Strong economic data and less global fears get the reason du jour honors.

Meanwhile, with the economic number on the rise, oil prices are at an eight month high. We shall see what happens as higher gasoline prices hit the market.

Beginning of Year Rally

Stock market rallyHey, the SP500 is up more today than it was in 2011! The market is up about 2% as I type on good economic data.

The US continues to see improving economic data.

Sure. Greece and Spain and Iran are still on the front pages, but it is nice to start the year off moving forward.

Monday, January 02, 2012

The Iowa Caucus on Deck

Welcome to the post-holiday crash -- beginning with the Iowa caucus.  The republican field is on display...

Gingrich Predicts Possible Upset in Iowa Caucuses - By Katrina Trinko - The Corner - National Review Online

The 2012 Outlook and Predictions

Here are the 2012 stock market predictions and outlook.

Bulls and Bears

Gary B. Smith:       AMZN up 40%   Dow 14,700
Jonas Max Ferris:  JPM up 30%      Dow 13,000
Tobin Smith:          TSM up 100%    Dow 12,800

Currently, the Dow is at 12,217,  AMZN is $173.10, JPM is $33.25, and TSM is $12.91.  Kind of interesting that Toby has the biggest stock prediction and the lowest Dow index prediction.   If the market is going to rally, the financials have to participate.  I think Jonas' prediiction of JPM is very interesting.  And then Gary B. Smith's prediction of AMZN seems like a good one, especially if folks buy the Kindle Fire.  I just got an Android tablet and apps are sold via the Amazon store, too.

Cavuto on Business

Adam Lashinsky:     VTSMX:  $31.29
Ben Stein:                 SPY:     $125.50
Matt McCall:             HILO:      $18.28 

Yes!  Index funds and ETFs!  The "low volatility" emerging markets ETF (HILO) has a big yield.  


Forbes on Fox

Morgan Brennan:           LINE:  $37.91
Bill Baldwin:                   ZBRA: $35.78
Kim McNicholas:            CAT:   $90.60
Elizabeth MacDonald:    PAUCX

Cashin' In

Tracy Byrnes:              Dow will be flat, $4 gasoline
Gary Kaltbaum:           MA:  $372.82
Wayne Rogers:            LUK:  $22.74

Some of the regulars were off this week due to the holiday, so we can't keep tabs on everyone's 2012 picks!

(For some reason, I didn't have these predictions up for 2011!  Maybe Fox had some New Year's specials on. I don't recall...)

2011 in Review–The Results!

Okay.  I’m crunching the numbers for 2011, and I held my own against the SP500 but it was all a little underwhelming.  Here are the benchmarks

  • Dow: 5.5%
  • SP500:  0%
  • Nasdaq: -1.8%
  • Emerging Markets: -18.6%
  • US Bond Index:  8%

I came in at 1.7%.    The SP500 number above doesn’t include dividends, so I’m sure I’m really close to a tie this year.  But we’ll rack up another “win” against the SP500 benchmark.  Shaky as it is.

Sunday, January 01, 2012

2011 in Review (Part 1)

This is the first look back at 2011.  Basically,after all the volatility and noise, stocks went nowhere!

  • Dow: 5.5%
  • SP500:  0% 
  • Nasdaq: -1.8%
  • Emerging Markets: -18.6%
  • US Bond Index:  8%
Tomorrow, I will run my numbers and see how I did against the benchmarks. 

It is amazing with all the volatility that the market basically didn't move.  How many volatile swings did we have this year?  It seems like we were gapping up, gapping down, and reversing intra-day all year long!

Last year it seemed that we had a lot of optimism heading into 2011.  Heading into 2012, it seems like there is much more pessimism.  I think we will have a strong stock market in 2012.  Corporate profits are strong, and with the market at the same multiple, it means that stocks are cheaper now than in 1/1/2011.  More tomorrow...

Happy New Year to all!


I am running behind a bit.   Lots of New Years parties and get togethers.  The weather has been amazing, and I've been out cycling and taking advantage of the sunshine!

I'm tying this on my iPad and not the new ASUS Transformer Prime Android tablet.  I find myself using both tablets during the day for different things.  I don't have a keyboard for my Android tablet yet, so this is why I'm on the iPad now.  Plus, there really isn't a good blogging client for the Android that I can find.