Monday, May 23, 2016

Fed Rate Hike Randomosity

  • imageI think it’s tough to raise rates in an election year.  Especially the further along we get in the calendar. Would the Fed want to have an impact on the election?
  • If you’re weighing rates and looming data, then you’re being blamed for today’s market fluctuations!
  • The economic data has mostly been soft.  Maybe inflation ticking up a little.  I wonder how much of that is due to wage hikes pushing up prices?  We have minimum wage hikes and new overtime pay rules.
  • Why is Donald Trump surging in the pollsTrump is quickly consolidating the support of his party, while Clinton's still locked in a grueling primary battle.  I mostly agree with this, and when Hillary finally gets the nomination, Bernie supporters will consolidate around her. 
  • Does anyone like $AAPL – Apple stock?  Well, here may be some good news.  They have a list of things, but my point is that the company is still going to win more and more market share around the globe. Heck, I’m going to upgrade to an iPhone 7 this Fall.
  • I still think Hillary wins in a LANDSLIDE in November.  It won’t be close.
  • I use Open Live Writer to blog.  FYI.  Pretty clean interface.  WYSIWYG
  • Who wants to fly to Hawaii? Have you heard of VietJet?  Well, lets watch the video.

  • Hey! Is it all day breakfast or another move that has been critical to McDonald's success: improving customer service through wage increases and training.  HMM.  So raising prices good for consumers?  …the changes "have resulted in lower crew turnover and higher customer satisfaction scores ... and we are gaining share relative to the [fast-food] sandwich segment."
  • The Freddie Gray case is over.  Edward Nero – Not guilty! So that will be in the news a lot this week. Hope for peace.
  • $FIT - Fitbit facing a lawsuit over highly inaccurate trackers?  Hmm. 
  • Remember when Xiaomi was supposed to be the Apple iPhone killer?

Sunday, May 22, 2016

Sunday Randomosity

  • imageMarket sentiment seems bearish.  Even with stock indexes not that far from all-time highs.  Except for the Nasdaq, where there has been some carnage in growth. But money has rotated into “safer” names for now.  And Amazon.
  • Lets build a park, and fill it with carnivores.  Now that would make for a great movie!  3 Nile crocodiles found in Florida…  between 2010 and 2014, the Nile crocodile was responsible for 480 attacks on humans in Africa … officials say the swamp dwellers escaped from a facility called Predator World.
  • My thoughts on minimum wage hikes and increased compensation via overtime rules reform? When companies face higher costs, they either try to reduce costs or pass along the higher costs to consumers.  So, these laws will probably  mean some combination of fewer employees, fewer working hours for employees, and higher prices at the stores, malls, and monthly bills for consumers.  And combine this with more costs for rules and regulations, there is an unknown impact on small businesses that never get started in the first place.
  • Back to stocks, I think all these liberal/progressive rules are a major factor in the slower GDP growth we’ve seen.  And economic growth fuels the stock market.  Which hasn’t gone anywhere in almost a year and a half!
  • And throwing the first pitch today is Tiffany Hwang from the South Korean kpop group Girls Generation.  Nice throw, Tiffany!

  • Energy experts say oil won’t top $100.  Does that make you nervous? So I suppose what that really means is that we should start to fear really high oil prices again.
  • Angry Birds made $39 million this weekend?  Hmm.  Well, I did get an Angry Birds themed spoon at the local yogurt shop yesterday.
  • Hedge funds unloaded $7 billion of Apple stock in the first quarter.  Nobody likes it anymore.  Should start seeing some downgrades, right? Some are comparing to Blackberry.  Hmm.  Well, I’m not there yet.  I still own it. 

Sunday, May 15, 2016

Feels Like the Tide

The stock market has felt a lot like the ocean tide the last year and a half.  Rolls in.  Rolls out.  But it seems like nothing much is going on.   Cash on the sidelines is doing about as well as a diversified index fund!

The only chance at beating the market has been specific stock selection. Of course, that requires the selection of the best stocks, while avoiding the worst stocks.  So if you're in Facebook and Amazon, that's great!  Biotechs?  Uh, the tide has been rolling out and out and out on many of those names. 
With Sell in May here, I haven't allocated additional money to stocks, other than monthly allocations to an index fund in the retirement plan. (Dollar cost averaging).  My big plan at this point is to wait until Sept/Oct before making stock picks.  I would imagine summer will be a little soft in the market.  
Although, the tide will continue to roll in and roll out. So if one can catch that...