Monday, December 31, 2018

Happy New Year’s Eve!

  • Stocks 2018... Yuck. A down year! Worst in a decade!  I think we needed a 6% move in the SP500 to have closed flat for 2018.  Did not happen!  Here are the numbers:
    • DOW:  -5.6%
    • SP500:  -6.2%
    • Nasdaq:  -3.9%
  • China trade deal hopes is the reason du jour for the stock market increase today. I think we are heading in the right direction for a deal on “fair trade” and the elimination or reduction of tariffs.  May just take a while, tho...
  • With a peak 19.8% decline in the SP500, was it a bear market? Will we go lower? Retest the lows?  Stair-step higher to new bull market highs?
  • I’m not sure if I should watch Netflix’s “Black Mirror: Bandersnatch” now or wait until the cheat sheet on how to navigate to all potential 5, 10, or perhaps 12 endings!  Black Mirror creators are torn over number of endings in Bandersnatch — Daily Mail
  • My worst performing investment in 2018 is in the marijuana stocks. Bullish very long term and adding periodically.
  • Allianz Chief Economist Mohammed El-Erian said on Sunday that a recession is unlikely to occur.  "It's certainly not becoming a reality," El-Erian told "Fox News Sunday. "You would need either a major policy mistake or a massive market accident to push us into recession. But we will slow down unless we build on the pro-growth policies."  US recession unlikely, market volatility to continue in 2019, El-Erian says — Fox News
  • During the last week of any year, we are reminded of the “Best of” stuff of the past year. Where are we these days? “The biggest food recalls of 2018.”  The biggest food recalls of 2018 — Fox Business
  • So my thoughts on the 2018 “best of” in the NFL was the rise of the young rookie quarterbacks: Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills), Sam Darnold (NY Jets), Baker Mayfield (Cleveland Browns) and Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens). All have been fun to watch.
  • 2-years in to the Bob Mueller “Russian Collusion” investigation, it’s important to remember that the Whitewater investigation lasted\ 7 years.  We may have another 5 years to go!
  • Let the NFL firings begin... 
  • Let the 2020 Presidential race begin...  Elizabeth Warren is in! 
  • Stay safe tonight!  Have a great New Year’s Eve!

Sunday, December 30, 2018

Shutdown Sunday!

  • Happy Shutdown Sunday!
  • Maybe the stock market is also in shutdown mode? The volatility has been amazing.  I’m taking a long-term view and thinking that with employment strong, wages rising, and corporate profits growing, the trend will be up.  (I’m 100% invested!)
  • I was watching a Periscope by Dilbert creator Scott Adams the other day, where he suggested the way past a government shutdown over border security was to bring in a team of engineers to decide what part of border security needs to be wall, fence or something else.  Because politicians can’t make the decision and are too dug in for political reasons.
  • Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill also looks to be in shutdown mode, with 2 interceptions in the first quarter.  Have to think his days as a starter in Miami are about over.
  • The stock market seems to be driven by every tweet...  comment...  late night phone call...
  • I think the trade deals and tariffs are moving in the right direction.
  • Just binged “Pine Gap” on the Netflix.  I liked it.  Only 6 episodes, so that helps.
  • Netflix claims that 45 million subscribers watched “Bird Box” over it’s debut week.  Netflix releases viewership numbers for 'Bird Box' and holy crap — Mashable
  • Typing this on my new iPad Pro 11” ...
  • Streaming services are going to get interesting in 2019 with Apple, Disney, ATT and who knows else joining Netflix, Hulu, Amazon, CBS... etc.  It’s going to cost a thousand dollars a month to cut the cord and subscribe to all these individual streaming services!
  • Is all this stock market volatility normal?  Let’s ask Nancy Tengler:  “It’s in our face more. We have too much focus on the day-to-day or minute-by-minute or second-by-second movements. Historically, is this normal? Yes.”  Humans, Machines and Markets: Stocks Going Crazy Is Nothing New (FORTUNE)

Sunday, January 14, 2018

2017 – Dollar Cost Averaging into an Index

If you had invested $1000 in an index ETF every Friday (or last trading day of the week) at the closing price in 2016, how would you have done? Listed at the bottom is a list of the same ETFs with a single investement at the closing price on the last trading day of 2016.

Excludes dividends and trading costs.

A lump sum early would have easily outperformed dollar cost averaging in 2017! 2017 was a year where we really didn't see any market corrections, so trying to buy periodically failed the lump sum at the beginning of the year.

Fox Business Block Gurus 2017 Final

Here’s how the Fox Business Block gurus performed in 2017 compared to the indices (excluding dividends). This return is based on investing $1000 per weekly stock pick at the closing price Friday night. The stock picks started 12/31/2016 through the 12/23/2017 picks, versus dollar cost averaging into the index ETFs during the same time period.

The stock market had a good 2017, so you think that everyone would look like a great stock picker in a rising market. There is some saying about a monkey throwing darts at the stock page could pick winning stocks when the market is in an uptrend!

Five of the index ETFs were in the top 7, with Charles Payne and Gary B. Smith in the 3 and 4 position, respectively.

Semiconductors had a great 2017, as the SOXX led all in the list. Overall, the large market index ETF, SPY and VTI, finished in the middle in 2017.

Most stock picks are made without any future guidance. Once you buy, there is no advice to sell or buy more. The shows do have an occasional “follow up” show that goes over the best and worst picks for each guru, and what they’d do with that one or two picks going forward.

The Fox Business Block is ending as of this weekend and being replaced by a 2-hour long "Cavuto Live" show. It is truly the end of an era! 18 years!