Monday, December 31, 2018

Happy New Year’s Eve!

  • Stocks 2018... Yuck. A down year! Worst in a decade!  I think we needed a 6% move in the SP500 to have closed flat for 2018.  Did not happen!  Here are the numbers:
    • DOW:  -5.6%
    • SP500:  -6.2%
    • Nasdaq:  -3.9%
  • China trade deal hopes is the reason du jour for the stock market increase today. I think we are heading in the right direction for a deal on “fair trade” and the elimination or reduction of tariffs.  May just take a while, tho...
  • With a peak 19.8% decline in the SP500, was it a bear market? Will we go lower? Retest the lows?  Stair-step higher to new bull market highs?
  • I’m not sure if I should watch Netflix’s “Black Mirror: Bandersnatch” now or wait until the cheat sheet on how to navigate to all potential 5, 10, or perhaps 12 endings!  Black Mirror creators are torn over number of endings in Bandersnatch — Daily Mail
  • My worst performing investment in 2018 is in the marijuana stocks. Bullish very long term and adding periodically.
  • Allianz Chief Economist Mohammed El-Erian said on Sunday that a recession is unlikely to occur.  "It's certainly not becoming a reality," El-Erian told "Fox News Sunday. "You would need either a major policy mistake or a massive market accident to push us into recession. But we will slow down unless we build on the pro-growth policies."  US recession unlikely, market volatility to continue in 2019, El-Erian says — Fox News
  • During the last week of any year, we are reminded of the “Best of” stuff of the past year. Where are we these days? “The biggest food recalls of 2018.”  The biggest food recalls of 2018 — Fox Business
  • So my thoughts on the 2018 “best of” in the NFL was the rise of the young rookie quarterbacks: Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills), Sam Darnold (NY Jets), Baker Mayfield (Cleveland Browns) and Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens). All have been fun to watch.
  • 2-years in to the Bob Mueller “Russian Collusion” investigation, it’s important to remember that the Whitewater investigation lasted\ 7 years.  We may have another 5 years to go!
  • Let the NFL firings begin... 
  • Let the 2020 Presidential race begin...  Elizabeth Warren is in! 
  • Stay safe tonight!  Have a great New Year’s Eve!

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