Sunday, November 29, 2009

Sunday Randomosity

  • Well, it will be interesting to see if the market bounces back tomorrow. We are hitting the end of the month and beginning of December, which could see the monthly dollar-cost averaged cash enter the market. Or not. I hope we bounce back from friday.
  • I ordered vegetable udon at a Japanese restaurant tonight. It was a bowl of noodles with just a few sprigs of brocoli and a few carrots, very finely shredded. $9. The broth was okay, but come on $9? The free bowl of miso soup with a few tofu cubes was more hearty.
  • As I lamented on Twitter, I am playing the last-placed team in 2 fantasy football leagues. They have the highest scores in their respective leagues this week. Me? Second highest score. In both leagues. Good grief.
  • Almost done with re-watching season two of Lost. Michael jsu came back and shot Anna Lucia and Libby, while Eko and John found the monitoring hatch under the drug running plane.
  • RSS Player is back in the iPhone app store. Improved version. Crashes here and there but pretty good. During the time it was unavailable I used Drivecast. Will continue to use both. Drivecasts fast forward is broken in current version but dude says next version submitted to apple.

Thursday, November 26, 2009

The Dubai Delay

Well, the historical pattern where the market does well on the day after Thanksgiving could be toast.

Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries rose the most in almost two weeks after a Dubai proposal to delay debt payments set off a slide in stocks and higher-yielding assets worldwide.


The credit crunch continues.

Happy Thanksgiving

I want to wish all of you who read this blog a very happy Thanksgiving. I appreciate the comments and emails.

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Interest on the National Debt

I was catching up on some podcasts this morning on the drive in, and listened to Bob Brinker's (not pictured) Sunday show. He mentioned that with a $12 trillion national debt, if the prime rate was to go to 5%, we'd be paying $600 billion a year in interest. That's interest only.

Should interest rates rise. No worry of that, right?


Picture is of *the other* market timing radio pop star, Gwen Stefani.  After all, Brinker ain't no hollaback girl.

Monday, November 23, 2009

Thawing Turkey and Sea Lion Randomosity

  • It's Monday. It's Thanksgiving week. One of my favorite weeks of the year! It seems as if the market also is pricing in a nice turkey dinner with all the trimmings and fixings. Market went up about 1.2% across the board.
  • Of course, thawing turkeys are being denied the credit for today's ramp. We have headlines of the day about a weak dollar and better than expected home data getting credit for buyers being over-the-top excited about stocks today.
  • Have you seen the recent flap about global warming data being faked? It doesn't really surprise me, human behavior being what it is. But you wonder how deep this rabbit hole goes, Neo.
  • Have you bought your Hide the Decline t-shirt?
  • LOL, Weird Al Yankovic. Ah, I think I like his versions of songs better than the originals. At least when I try to remember lyrics, I'm singing the Weird Al versions. Really.
  • Is it just me, or is the WSJ website a real computer resource hog? Good grief.
  • Did you read about the guy in Sacramento who was arrested for shooting a sea lion? Foy said that, upon questioning, Legans admitted shooting the sea lion with a 12-gauge shotgun on Nov. 11 while fishing from his boat in the Sacramento River near Verona. A shotgun allegedly used in the crime was confiscated from the home as evidence. "He said he was tired of sea lions taking his fish," said Foy. Sea lions are a protected animal.

Friday, November 20, 2009

TGIF Randomosity!

  • cigar As I sat down this morning to blog, the market was tanking, er getting smoked, yet again.  But work intervened and when I came back to my office, things weren’t so bad.  Obviously, the market got hit with the Dell news (as did Dell!).  The WSJ said investors wanted safety today.
  • Hat tip to Market Power (twice) for the link to the College Athletic Graduation Data.  Kind of interesting, and good to know that rates are on the rise.
  • Everyone is rolling their eyes when they hear that employment lags in this economic recover.  Mark Thoma explains why it may be until 2013 that we see employment recovering.  Oh, and there are graphs.  I like graphs.
  • Eyes on health care this weekend!

Sixty votes in the 100-seat Senate are required to clear Saturday's vote, meaning that all 58 Senate Democrats and the two independents that generally vote with them will need to hold together. All 40 Republicans are united in opposition.

"We are not assuming a thing. We are working hard to bring all Democrats together for the 60 votes necessary to proceed to this historic debate," said Dick Durbin of Illinois, the No. 2 Senate Democrat. "I'm hoping that we can muster our ranks."

  • So, I have Dwayne Bowe on my fantasy football team.  Good grief, he’s suspended for 4 games.  So I’m going through the free agent list and looking at picking up some other cast off.
  • I don’t really have an opinion on Sarah Palin’s new book.  Sorry.  I don’t think I’ll read it.  There are many blogs out there commenting on the book.  I wonder how many have actually read it, compared to how many love or hate Palin, and are just reciting talking points?

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Dude, I Hope You Didn’t Own Dell

Dell reported that their fiscal third-quarter profit fell 54%.

Officials offered less than robust outlook on end demand. Chief Financial Officer Brian Gladden said demand had stabilized but a significant uptick was unlikely until 2010. Dell’s shares are down about 6% in after-market trading.
In the post-earnings conference call, officials said desktop PC revenue declined 26% year-over-year. Mobility fell 14%, servers down 6%, storage down 19%, according to our colleagues over at Digits.
You know, this is sad news for the 3rd quarter and all, but I’m guessing that 4th quarter demand (and forward) may increase with people upgrading PCs and moving to Windows 7.  I’m speaking for myself, as I am planning on a new purchase in the next few weeks. In addition, friends and family are also in the market now that Windows 7 is out.  I’m guessing Dell will get most of our business.  Just saying.
But bad news in the rear-view mirror, that’s for sure. 
Is the 26% year-over-year decline in desktop revenue really that shocking?  I can’t think of anyone buying right before the Windows 7 release.  Even with a free upgrade to Windows 7, it’s much easier to just buy a PC with the operating system already installed.

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

DOW Theory Buy (Recently)

In case you missed it, the DOW Theory buy hit last Monday

As Mark Hulbert (not pictured) reports, the action on the Dow Transports last Monday finally triggered a Dow Theory buy signal, which has been enough to persuade some erstwhile bears to grudgingly turn bullish. Of course, Hulbert notes that there may nevertheless be some Dow Theorists who remain dismissive of this buy signal due to the lack of any extended correction since the market's March low.

Richard Russell (not pictured, either), editor of Dow Theory Letters, is one of the technical analysts who, in light of the joint new highs of both the Dow Industrials and the Dow Transports, are now officially bullish on both the secondary and primary trends of the stock market.
There you go.  Good to know, I suppose.
But heck, Gary Kaltbaum was talking about “momentum tops” on his radio show today.  Of course, he was hedging this way and that way and being rather unspecific with regards to making any sort of market call.  As usual. But he does have an entertaining radio show.
I remain 100% long.
Pictured is Monica Raymund, from Lie to Me.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Market Valuation

Mark Haines (not pictured) made a comment this morning on Squawk Box about market valuation. Many folks are complaining that market valuation is too high considering the weak economy. We have unemployment over 10%, homeowners are facing foreclosures, and there is an overall sense of gloom. Haines said that early in an economic recovery, valuations would be higher because corporate earnings haven't caught up with the turnaround.

Corporate earnings are reported looking at the rear-view mirror. We're not at the point where things in the rear-view mirror look anything close to rosey.

And for federal and state tax revenues, things look even worse as those lag the economy based on tax years. We know the federal deficit is closing in on $2T. California may be looking at a $25 billion hole.  As the recovery progresses, then tax revenues should increase.  If the stock market closes out a positive year, maybe we'll even see some capital gains taxes roll in.  In states like CA where we rely heavily on the rich to pay taxes, as the rich prosper the state prospers.

Anyway, nice comment by Haines.  I think looking when looking at data points, it is important to look around and see where we are in the economic recovery, rather than apply a strict and rigid historical model.

Monday, November 16, 2009

Monday Randomosity

  • Hey, two blog posts in one day!  I think I can, I think I can…  Brought to you by a sexy race girl. Just cuz.
  • Did you see where Warren Buffett doubled his Wal-mart holdings?
  • While we’re debating government-run health care, it may be important to see how government-run mail delivery is goingThe U.S. Postal Service reported a $3.8 billion loss in the 2009 fiscal year, and plans to propose to Congress in 2010 that it drop Saturday delivery.  Nice!
  • Hey, the Fed sees no asset bubbles"The prices of assets in U.S. financial markets do not appear to be clearly out of line with the outlook for the economy and business prospects as well as the level of risk-free interest rates," said Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn.  Should we file this in the folder with the internet stock bubble and housing bubble the Fed also didn’t see?
  • Arnold Kling:  No Bubbles Here.  Move Along Now.
  • Hey, niacin is good for the heart after all.
  • I have little interest in Sarah Palin’s book, Going Rogue.  You?  Heck, $30.   Review up at WSJ
  • Speaking of, I recently subscribed to the online and print version of WSJ.  It really is a well-written newspaper, and contains more than just recycled AP news stories.  I’m enjoying the hard-copy for a change of pace.  Old school, baby!

Monday Ramp

  • Seems like a big deal to break 1100 on the SP500. If we can hold it today. Technically, the market seems fine. Fundamentally, it sure seems as if we are going to have some issues with higher market valuation.
  • I remain long and don't see a compelling reason to sell just yet.
  • Monday Night Football between Ravens and Browns. What a clunker. I will probably watch. LOL.

Sunday, November 08, 2009

Sunday Game Day

I'm still long the stock market. Haven't seen too big of reason to sell. I think the economy is recovering, and the bump up in the productivity numbers was nice to see at this point. It may be a bit before companies start hiring folks, but it seems as if we're on a normal economic recovery trajectory. Of course, interest rates are near 0% and gold is around $1100. There is that.

I've been dragging with this head cold the past week. Or swine flu. Whatever. I had a sore throat early last week, now just have a stuffy nose. Was only at work on Monday and Thursday. Thursday was a bit questionable. I didn't get much done, and opted to stay at home on Friday.

Wednesday, November 04, 2009

Home Sick

Bleh. Fighting a cold or flu. I think the former. Anyways, on the sofa watching movies for two days straight.