Friday, November 25, 2016

Black Friday Randomosity

  • imageThe Russell 2000 is on a 15-day win streak, gaining 16% over that time.  Hope everyone is participating in that!
  • The stock market rally is being called the "Trump Rally."  Well, everyone thought Hillary had it locked up and the futures were down 5% when Trump looked like he'd win.  Then after he won the market soared.  Lower taxes.  Lower regulations.  Etc.
  • The economy is pricing in a higher GDP.   We've been stuck under 3% during Obama's presidency.  Now Wall Street is anticipating 4-6%.
  • Inflation?
  • Higher mortgage rates would cause a drop in home prices.  People can afford what they can afford.  Unless wages start rising.
  • Inflation?
  • Trump wanted to refinance some of the short-term national debt at these historical low long-term rates.  Uh, long-term rates have been rising...  What will they be when he's sworn in.
  • (If he is sworn in.  Jill Stein leading the recount efforts in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.  I think lawyers will make a lot, but nothing will change in the electoral college.)
  • Lots of Black Friday deals on … TVs.  Tablets.  Games.  Etc.  Mall traffic down (they say) but online sales setting records.  Over $3B?
  • And lots of Green Friday deals at the marijuana stores…

#258: Black Friday! Election Recount!

Black Friday sales make record... Jill Stein leads recount effort... Market new highs - again! Trump transition and conflict of interest? And more!

Tuesday, November 22, 2016

#257: DOW 19,000! And Trump Trump Trump!

All four indexes make new closing highs... Trump transition and conflict of interest? Saturday Night Live... Economic growth... And more!

Friday, November 18, 2016

#255: Fake News Friday as Small Caps up 11 Days Straight!

College kids create chrome extension to identify fake news on Facebook... Small cap stocks up 11 days in a row... Kanye West and Paris Hilton...Gold... McDonalds... Cisco...Walmart... And more!

Thursday, November 17, 2016

Thursday Night Randomosity

Obama Chimes in on Fake News Phenomenon, Warns It Could Weaken Democracy

Even President Obama has something to say about "fake news!"  Hey if the guy making $120,000 a year and electing Presidents can do it, why would anyone be a $46,500 a year legit journalist?

Why Did So Many White Women Vote for Donald Trump?

So with the Billy Bush entertainment tonight audio, Hillary was thought to lock up the women vote.  Not so fast... 

3 Stocks to Buy With Dividends Yielding More Than 3%

I like the list of dividend stocks in this article.  $MCD $TGT $PG

Oil prices shoot higher amid Saudi optimism over output deal

So oil prices higher today... But wasn't one of the headlines yesterday that they found 20 billion barrels of oil in West Texas?

Trump asks Flynn, a fiery general, to be top adviser and plans Romney meeting

Hmm... So General Michael Flynn and Mitt Romney next?   Both controversial for different reasons!  At least this is entertaining?

Dish Network’s subscriber losses are going to get a lot worse

Dish Network losing subscribers while DirecTV adding subscribers?  Hmm. NFL?

Divorce in U.S. Plunges to 35-Year Low

Divorce rate at its lowest level since 1981? Good news... Keep families together!

#254: Market and Trump Transition Comments

Mitt Romney Secretary of State? Obama and Yellen blah blah blah... Precious snowflakes skipping classes... Is the selling in tech stock "dumb money?" Protests... Gold... McDonalds... Disney... Best Buy... And more!

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Wednesday Randomosity

  • The 7-day win streak for the Dow ended today. Nothing lasts forever.  Nasdaq was up, though.
  • I remain long stocks in a diversified sort of way.  A little sad to see the selloff in some of the tech stocks I have, but not worried “over the long term.”
  • $FB - More misleading stats from Facebook? Last September was the video watching stats.  This time?  Undercounting or overcounting of four measurements…  Are they worried about fake news or fake stats?
  • $AMZN – Black Friday at Amazon means TVs on sale! Anyone need a new one?
  • Wolfcamp shale portion of Permian basin in Texas has up to 20 billion barrels of oil and 16 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.  Seems like a lot.  Going to need MORE pipelines!
  • Maybe the Democrats best chance at fixing Obamacare was with a President Trump and a GOP Senate and House.  Now the GOP will be forced to keep the popular portions and tweak other parts.  Dems probably couldn’t have done that with gridlock in Congress.
  • I haven’t done much stock trading this year. Keep adding to the index.  Month after month.  Adding to some individual names when they sell off.  (Some lately).

#253: Dow Ends Streak and the Electoral College

And on the eighth day the Dow rested... What will happen with the electoral college? New Balance shoes the official shoe of white nationalists? Protests...Oil...Stocks... Bonds... Bill Gross... And more!

Tuesday, November 15, 2016

#252: Dow up 7 Straight - What an Economy!

7 day advance in Dow... What will Trump do for economy? Bond bull market over? Apple i-glasses... No more fake news! Protests... and more!

#251: More Protests as Market Makes New Highs

High school kids join Trump protest... Stocks at new highs as tech sells off... Bonds... Apple Pay ... and more!

Sunday, November 13, 2016

Sunday Randomosity

  • A prayer for those in New Zealand.  A 7.8 magnitude earthquake struck central New Zealand just after midnight, causing widespread damage and generating a tsunami.
  • 20,000 people evacuated from the coastline. 
  • For the week, the Dow rose 5.4%, S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 3.8%.
  • Which are better, growth stocks or value stocks?
  • I’m bullish on the market into the new year.  Won’t be a straight line up.  I think if Trump is successful with cutting taxes and regulations, and allows companies to repatriate overseas cash, GDP could accelerate. 
  • I think SNL missed an opportunity to do what they do best: Be funny. Just dog piling on Trump voters as a bunch of idiotic, uneducated racists is tiring.
  • Watching football? Marching in a protest? What say you?
  • If GDP accelerates, so will inflation and interest rates. Guessing down the road that could be a negative for housing affordability.  And remember that we also have to refinance $20T in national debt at the going rate as short term bonds expire.  Our debt will increase.
  • Started your Christmas shopping yet? You think the Amazon Echo will be a hot item?
  • Donald Trump says sections of wall he pledged would be built on border with Mexico could be fencing in certain areas .  Maybe just some signs “Keep off our lawn.”  Or some Les Nessman tape instead of walls.
  • Trump plans for immediate transfer of management, business portfolio to his kids.
  • I’m long the market.  Diversified.  Dollar cost averaging in.  Status quo for now.

Saturday, November 12, 2016

#250: Fallout from the Election

Protests continue in Portland, Los Angeles, New York...

Stocks rally after election but what happens next?

Bonds... Gold... Watching live streams on Facebook... and more!

Friday, November 11, 2016

#249: Veterans Day and Big Week for Stocks!

Veterans Day - why not donate to a charity? Best week for stocks in 5 years... Trump walking back some of his campaign promises?  Warren Buffett says Stocks will rally over long term... Chicago pizza tax... Grubhub CEO Matt Maloney reacts to Trump's win... Protests...and more!

Thursday, November 10, 2016

#248: Election Aftermath: Stocks Rip Higher

Protesters hit the streets. Stocks rip higher! Financial stocks soar...  Tech stocks swoon... Celebrate Trump win with a charitable donation.  Trump meets Obama to talk transition... Disney earnings... And more!

Wednesday, November 09, 2016

Election Aftermath Randomosity

  • imageStock futures spiked lower last night when the thought of a Hillary victory started heading south.  But today…  We were at new market highs before a late day pullback!
  • Everyone doing the Monday Morning Quarterback routine and analyzing results.  MSNBC still counting votes and not declaring some of the battleground states over yet.
  • The pendulum goes back and forth.  The GOP crash in the 70’s after Nixon.  Rise in the 80’s under Reagan.  Crash in the 90’s with Clinton.  Up with George Bush after Y2K.  Gone again with Obama.  Now … They’re back again!
  • If you don’t like the way things are, wait a few election cycles.  It will go back your way soon enough.  Don’t stress out.
  • Cher said if Trump won, she’s moving to Jupiter.
  • Alec Baldwin probably feeling good about a long term SNL gig doing Trump.  Right?
  • Less happy is Mexico’s Carlos Slim.  They say he lost over $5B on the Trump win with the Peso slide.  OUCH!
  • I think everyone was hoping the market was down 700 tomorrow so that they could do the BREXIT buy buy buy and profit on the rebound.  Folks were texting me about it!  Didn’t get that chance.
  • Alexion halted as I type $ALXN.  Delaying their earnings.  LOL
  • $GM slashing 2000 workers due to lower demand.
  • Is Renault-Nissan bringing a low-cost $8,000 electric car to market?  So, one of those or one of those $100,000 things from $TSLA?  Hmmm….
  • So even with the Trump win and today’s rally, remember the market will start worrying about Fed rate hikes again soon…  The first year or so of Trump may not be the best for the market.  Not his fault.  Economic growth is slow and the current expansion has been staggering along for awhile.  Now facing rate hikes.
  • I’m still long the market and diversified and dollar cost averaging.  Hard to beat that over the long term.  Short term trickier.

#247: Election: The Day After Thoughts

Trump wins! Futures tank followed by rally in stocks.  What will President Trump do? And more!

Tuesday, November 08, 2016

#246: Election Day! Stocks Rally!

Big crowds at election booths. Rally in stocks. Hillary vs Trump in the stock market. Celebrities planning on leaving if Trump wins. Big stock moves today...And more!

#245: Election News and Market Rally

FBI done with 650,000 email review. Huge rally in stocks. Hillary and Trump crisscrossing the battleground states. Gold crashes... Jamaican lottery scam kingpin busted... And more!

(From Monday, November 7th, 2016)

Sunday, November 06, 2016

Election Randomosity

  • imageWho would be better for the stock market, Hillary or Trump?
  • Historically, the market does good with either party controlling the White House.  Slight edge to Democrats.  But the biggest edge is a Democrat in the White House and the Republicans controlling Congress.  Gridlock!  The markets love when the government is paralyzed and can’t pass legislation.
  • We will be fine no matter who wins.  Remember: The Founding Fathers put in checks and balances in the system.
  • A woman voting for Trump tells her story.
  • Price controls for drugs? Would that be a good thing for drug stocks?  Drug prices have been in the news the past year, as price gouging and fixing are being investigated.  With Obamacare price increase smacking consumer wallets, will one of the fixes be to slap on price controls on medication?
  • Paid maternity leave?  Looks like there is some support for this from both Hillary and Trump.  Hillary Clinton wants to cover up to 12 weeks of leave for both parents, while Donald Trump has proposed six weeks of maternity leave.
  • Hillary and Trump supporters unfriending each other on Facebook.  Hey if you listened to my podcast, you heard me talk about how receiving a Facebook friend request decreases mortality.  What does this do???

Saturday, November 05, 2016

#244: More on the Election and Stocks

Is the Donald Trump surge rocking the stock market? Hillary still the favorite? Voting demographics... Stocks down 9 in a row... Facebook for a longer life? Samsung products gone wild... Venezuela... Chevy Bolt... And more!

Friday, November 04, 2016

Friday Night Randomosity

  • imageHow many days in a row have stocks been down? And 3 months in a row?
  • Charles Payne on Fox Business said he did some research, and other than the 1992 Ross Perot clusterfuck, if the market is down the three months prior to the election, the incumbent party loses.  (I may have paraphrased a word in there).
  • If I told you the market was going to rally 10% by April 2017, would you buy now or wait?  That’s what Samuel Eisenstadt says anyway.  Lets go with Sam!!!
  • I have talked about the election on the podcasts.   Will type and say more in the days before – and after!
  • Warriors at Lakers – Lakers up at halftime.  Huh?  Probably thanking their lucky stars THEY didn’t sign Kevin Durant.
  • One of my coworkers dressed up as Mrs. Incredible for a work site Halloween costume contest.  Really?  Pretty much a game changer.
  • Seoul bracing for huge anti-Park rallies.  Who doesn’t like parks?  Bwah.  Yah, I know.  Just had to.
  • imageHey I took this same picture of the Fed when I was in D.C. riding the hop-on hop-off bus.
  • So yes.  I have increased blogging and podcasting this week.  Hope to continue it.  Podcasts in the sidebar at Audioboom, but also posting at Soundcloud and Spreaker for now. Please give some feedback here, there, Twitter or wherevs.

#243: Election News and Market Update

FBI indictment not imminent? Hillary and Trump in battleground states... Stocks down 9 in a row...Jobs report...David Stockman says sell your stocks! Las Vegas Sands, GoPro and Whole Foods Markets... Jared Fogle...And more!

Are the FANG Stocks Dead?

Have the FANG stocks lost their bite? $FB $AMZN $NFLX $GOOGL

My thought? No.  The market is selling off and those stocks that had the biggest gains are seeing the biggest pullbacks.  I view all of these stocks as generational game changers.  They have changed the way we live our lives.

Facebook is how we keep in touch with each other.  It has replaced emails and chat.  It has replaced late night phone calls.  We share our lives with each other on Facebook (and the other companies owned by the social media giant).  I view $FB as a stock that 10 years from now, many people will have wished they bought and held the stock.

Amazon has replaced the mall.  In some cases, it has replaced the grocery store and corner drugstore.  It’s where we buy stuff.  Remember when you had to wait 6-8 weeks ordering merchandise from a mail order catalog?  2 days.  Anything you want.  Same day in some areas. Oh, and they do other things, too.  The stock has already soared. 

Netflix and chill!  Cord cutting is for realz.  Does anyone have the patience to watch a weekly episodic TV show anymore now that Netflix has introduced us to the wonders of binge watching?  My greatest fear with the stock is competition.  It’s still coming and growing.  But $NFLX is the king of streaming.  And they put out some great shows!  Anyone else watch Black Mirror or binging Luke Cage?

The Google!  This company is going strong with search and video.  The search page is hit multiple times a day for most of us, and has settled many a game-day argument amongst buddies.  “Name all the undefeated NCAA college football teams?”  Anyone else wasted an evening going from YouTube video to YouTube video, watching crazy dog vs. cat videos or a news clip on a current event?

Game changers.  These stocks are how we spend our time.  Advertisers want to spend money where we spend our time.

Of these stocks, I believe $FB will be the strongest grower over the next 10 years.  This doesn’t mean any of these stocks will go straight up for the next 10 years.  All stocks are subject to moves by the Federal Reserve on interest rates, recessions, mergers/acquisitions, competition, and random acts of God.

Thursday, November 03, 2016

Election and Stock Market Update

Is Hillary or Trump better for the stock market? What the heck happened with Fitbit and Facebook earnings? Is McDonalds doing the right thing? Blue jeans... Black Mirror... And more!

My Election Prediction

My thoughts on current status of 2016 election, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump and the impact to financial markets.

And my 2016 prediction!

Wednesday, November 02, 2016

The Cubs Won–Buy Stocks

If the Cubs win the World Series, you’re supposed to buy stocks.


Let ‘er rip!

Cubs Win!

  • The Chicago Cubs have won the world series!
  • Donald Trump may have passed up Hillary in some of the polls – But are the polls worth a darn?  If you read Twitter, you have folks accepting polls blindly, and some saying the methodology is all hogwash.  Pick and choose!
  • $FB – Ugh, Facebook tanked after earnings.  Yes, revenues going through the roof.  But…  I guess nobody cares about that right now. 
  • The market in general selling off.  Some blame the shifting political polls.  Some blame the thought of rising interest rates.   I think the latter more likely than whatever happens Tuesday.
  • By the way, I finished watching Black Mirror on Netflix.  Wow. Bees.  The Bees!
  • By the way, I think Hillary is going to win.  But momentum is with Trump right now.  Will it be enough to win the battleground states?
  • Anyway, I do have a little cash and looking for some names to buy.  Everyone always wants a dip to buy.  This is one.  Like I said in the podcast the other day, I hate to buy stocks at the highs and now here we are.  In correction mode!