Trump or Biden?

• Trump or Biden?
• Watch the polls!
• If the polls tighten over the next 3 weeks to within a few points, then Trump will win. I believe this means that the polls up through today were engineered. And, that the polling companies will have to close the gap to remain credible after the election. 
• If the polls don’t tighten, then Biden will win in a landslide. Everyone on Twitter who told you the polls are engineered are just batshit crazy!
• Whoever you want to win, if he doesn’t, relax! There will be another election in 4 years!

Are the Polls Acccurate?

Are the polls accurate?

If you look at the overall national polls, Biden is up by a large amount. If you look at the polling in the Battleground states, and even some of the usually “safe” Republican states, Biden is up.

Are the polls wonky? Have the polls been manipulated to show Biden running away with the election to discourage Republican voters?

I think one “tell” that the polls could be rigged would be if the huge Biden leads start to narrow the close the country gets to the election date.  If Biden truly is leading by a significant margin, the polls will remain the same and Biden will cruise to a landslide victory.  If Trump is ahead or the nation is closely split, the polls will have to narrow to within a reasonable margin of error to maintain credibility going forward.

Watch for the polls to narrow.  If that doesn’t happen, Biden will probably win big.  If the polls narrow, then look for a Trump win.

That’s my opinion as of today, anyway.

Stocks... Presidential Election... COVID19

• Stocks... Presidential election... Coronavirus (COVID19)...
• So anyway.
• It’s been over a year since I’ve written! Up until the COVID19 hit, I was just working, traveling, and the normal kinds of stuff. I started to stay at home when I heard about the virus in late January, as it was spreading. A friend had caught something strange with lots of fatigue and pneumonia, and I had heard the goings-on in Wuhan. I’ve mostly been at home since. Glad I can work from home!
• Hope you’re doing well!
• In spite of the crazy 2020, the economy has rebounded strongly. President Trump seems to not capitalize enough on the strategy of “we have to take precautions, but we also can’t let the economy crash.” Poverty kills, too.
• The vaccine seems not too far off. The therapeutics (monoclonal antibodies) seems pretty effective and hopefully those can roll out soon. Trying to be optimistic!
• Stocks have done well. Stay-at-home stocks, tech stocks, and growth kinds of names. Many biotechs rallied with the hopes of vaccines and therapeutics.  I sold my travel and vacation related stocks early in the year.  Except Disney.  Oops.
• I had thought Peloton would be a really crappy stock. Expensive product with high monthly fees. Where is the growth after everyone who wants one gets one, and a few months later it turns into a clothes rack?  Lockdown hits, people exercise at home.
• We are closing in on the election, and all the polls suggest Biden in a landslide. Meanwhile, those who ignore polls and focus on battleground state registration trends and mail-in ballot returns think it will be Trump in an electoral landslide.
• What do I think? Biden. Not my pick, though. I will go more into that in my next post. But not to change your mind one way or another. 
• The virus has disrupted most of what I do outside of work, so I had to change what I do. I walk a lot.  A lot. Bought some middle-tier binoculars I take with me everywhere, and look at animals and birds. Bought an e-bike and have really explored all over town.  Radrover 5 from Radpower.
• All that and a weekly Walmart grocery pick up!
• Hope you are doing well and that your portfolio is hanging in there. Many people may have sold out late winter fearing the worse, but I think we’re doing better than that. Some industries will take a while to recover, others already have.

#265: Trump Stock Market Rally Soars!

Market rally continues. New highs in the Dow, S&P 500 and small-cap stocks. Dow Theory transports make new highs. Trump bashes drug prices... Pearl Harbor... Tessa... Amazon... And more! This is from yesterday...

Sunday Randomosity

• A prayer for those in New Zealand.  A 7.8 magnitude earthquake struck central New Zealand just after midnight, causing widespread damage and generating a tsunami.
• 20,000 people evacuated from the coastline. 
• For the week, the Dow rose 5.4%, S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 3.8%.
• Which are better, growth stocks or value stocks?
• I’m bullish on the market into the new year.  Won’t be a straight line up.  I think if Trump is successful with cutting taxes and regulations, and allows companies to repatriate overseas cash, GDP could accelerate. 
• I think SNL missed an opportunity to do what they do best: Be funny. Just dog piling on Trump voters as a bunch of idiotic, uneducated racists is tiring.
• Watching football? Marching in a protest? What say you?
• If GDP accelerates, so will inflation and interest rates. Guessing down the road that could be a negative for housing affordability.  And remember that we also have to refinance $20T in national debt at the going rate as short term bonds expire.  Our debt will increase.
• Started your Christmas shopping yet? You think the Amazon Echo will be a hot item?
• Donald Trump says sections of wall he pledged would be built on border with Mexico could be fencing in certain areas .  Maybe just some signs “Keep off our lawn.”  Or some Les Nessman tape instead of walls.
• Trump plans for immediate transfer of management, business portfolio to his kids.
• I’m long the market.  Diversified.  Dollar cost averaging in.  Status quo for now.

#249: Veterans Day and Big Week for Stocks!

Veterans Day - why not donate to a charity? Best week for stocks in 5 years... Trump walking back some of his campaign promises?  Warren Buffett says Stocks will rally over long term... Chicago pizza tax... Grubhub CEO Matt Maloney reacts to Trump's win... Protests...and more!

Election Aftermath Randomosity

• Stock futures spiked lower last night when the thought of a Hillary victory started heading south.  But today…  We were at new market highs before a late day pullback!
• Everyone doing the Monday Morning Quarterback routine and analyzing results.  MSNBC still counting votes and not declaring some of the battleground states over yet.
• The pendulum goes back and forth.  The GOP crash in the 70’s after Nixon.  Rise in the 80’s under Reagan.  Crash in the 90’s with Clinton.  Up with George Bush after Y2K.  Gone again with Obama.  Now … They’re back again!
• If you don’t like the way things are, wait a few election cycles.  It will go back your way soon enough.  Don’t stress out.
• Cher said if Trump won, she’s moving to Jupiter.
• Alec Baldwin probably feeling good about a long term SNL gig doing Trump.  Right?
• Less happy is Mexico’s Carlos Slim.  They say he lost over $5B on the Trump win with the Peso slide.  OUCH!
• I think everyone was hoping the market was down 700 tomorrow so that they could do the BREXIT buy buy buy and profit on the rebound.  Folks were texting me about it!  Didn’t get that chance.
• Alexion halted as I type $ALXN.  Delaying their earnings.  LOL
• $GM slashing 2000 workers due to lower demand.
• Is Renault-Nissan bringing a low-cost $8,000 electric car to market?  So, one of those or one of those $100,000 things from $TSLA?  Hmmm….
• So even with the Trump win and today’s rally, remember the market will start worrying about Fed rate hikes again soon…  The first year or so of Trump may not be the best for the market.  Not his fault.  Economic growth is slow and the current expansion has been staggering along for awhile.  Now facing rate hikes.
• I’m still long the market and diversified and dollar cost averaging.  Hard to beat that over the long term.  Short term trickier.

Election Randomosity

• Who would be better for the stock market, Hillary or Trump?
• Historically, the market does good with either party controlling the White House.  Slight edge to Democrats.  But the biggest edge is a Democrat in the White House and the Republicans controlling Congress.  Gridlock!  The markets love when the government is paralyzed and can’t pass legislation.
• We will be fine no matter who wins.  Remember: The Founding Fathers put in checks and balances in the system.
• A woman voting for Trump tells her story.
• Price controls for drugs? Would that be a good thing for drug stocks?  Drug prices have been in the news the past year, as price gouging and fixing are being investigated.  With Obamacare price increase smacking consumer wallets, will one of the fixes be to slap on price controls on medication?
• Paid maternity leave?  Looks like there is some support for this from both Hillary and Trump.  Hillary Clinton wants to cover up to 12 weeks of leave for both parents, while Donald Trump has proposed six weeks of maternity leave.
• Hillary and Trump supporters unfriending each other on Facebook.  Hey if you listened to my podcast, you heard me talk about how receiving a Facebook friend request decreases mortality.  What does this do???

My Election Prediction

My thoughts on current status of 2016 election, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump and the impact to financial markets.

And my 2016 prediction!