Tuesday, October 13, 2020

Stocks... Election... ACB Hearings...

  • Stock market mixed a bit today.  Earnings season is kicking off.  JNJ COVID19 vaccine trial halted.
  • What's better for stocks? A blue wave sweep where Biden wins and the Dems take the Senate and keep the House?  So says Guggenheim's Scott Minerd.
  • Disney announces that they're reorganizing and focusing more on streaming!  Shares trading about 4% higher as I type.
  • It's Amazon Prime Day!  (If you need another Echo Dot).
  • The big question for investors, is whether Disney stock will receive a higher PE multiple on the news.  I have owned $DIS for a long time, and it has underperformed this year and recently. Hard for travel and vacation related stocks to thrive in a COVID19 world.
  • Yesterday, I tuned into the opening remarkds on the ACB hearing for the SCOTUS. I decided not to watch today.
  • But I did watch some of the Apple Event on the new iPhone! The latest and the greatest! These things used to be kind of exciting, but it seems like improvements are marginal in the terms of how most of us use the phone.
  • I watched "Christopher Robin" on Disney+ recently. (Spoiler: No time travel or world ending plague involved).
  • I would think investors prefer gridlock, like we have now. The government is basically at a standstill. No legislation can be passed. Status quo! Full speed ahead!
  • The Blue Wave Sweep would happen if the polls are right as of today. Are they?

Monday, October 12, 2020

ACB Hearings and Stocks Surging!

  • The stock market rally continued today...  Apple iPhone event?  ACB hearings?  Amazon Prime Day?  Or just general enthusiasm about the economy?
  • Yes, the economy isn’t working for everyone - if that’s even a thing. I think a lot of the strip mall shops and restaurants are still struggling due to people wanting to avoid COVD19. But other parts of the economy around tech, remote work and shopping are doing well.
  • I’d like to take October off from the movie streaming services.  At least the “new releases” lists. There is one Halloween horror movie after another. Not my thing!
  • The Nasdaq is just 1.5% down from all-time closing high!
  • Who has had a Beyond Meat burger (or anything)?
  • I suppose the COVID19 vaccine and therapeutic stocks are another speculative area.  I think we know the major players, right?
  • I did watch The Social Dilemma on Netflix. The horror of social media...
  • I watched some of the Amy Coney Barrett hearing today. Uh, nobody is going to learn anything watching that. Just looked like a bunch of nonsense to me.
  • Amazon Prime Day tomorrow.  If you don’t already have 12 Echo Dots around your home, here’s a chance to pick up a few more.
  • Started watching Home After Dark on Apple+ and it’s not bad.  Kid sleuth tries to solve a crime sort of thing.
  • Anyway... Happy Columbus Day!

Sunday, October 11, 2020

Trump or Biden?

  • Trump or Biden?
  • Watch the polls!
  • If the polls tighten over the next 3 weeks to within a few points, then Trump will win. I believe this means that the polls up through today were engineered. And, that the polling companies will have to close the gap to remain credible after the election. 
  • If the polls don’t tighten, then Biden will win in a landslide. Everyone on Twitter who told you the polls are engineered are just batshit crazy!
  • Whoever you want to win, if he doesn’t, relax! There will be another election in 4 years!

Are the Polls Acccurate?

Are the polls accurate?

If you look at the overall national polls, Biden is up by a large amount. If you look at the polling in the Battleground states, and even some of the usually “safe” Republican states, Biden is up.

Are the polls wonky? Have the polls been manipulated to show Biden running away with the election to discourage Republican voters?

I think one “tell” that the polls could be rigged would be if the huge Biden leads start to narrow the close the country gets to the election date.  If Biden truly is leading by a significant margin, the polls will remain the same and Biden will cruise to a landslide victory.  If Trump is ahead or the nation is closely split, the polls will have to narrow to within a reasonable margin of error to maintain credibility going forward.

Watch for the polls to narrow.  If that doesn’t happen, Biden will probably win big.  If the polls narrow, then look for a Trump win.

That’s my opinion as of today, anyway.

Saturday, October 10, 2020

Stocks... Presidential Election... COVID19

  • Stocks... Presidential election... Coronavirus (COVID19)...
  • So anyway.
  • It’s been over a year since I’ve written! Up until the COVID19 hit, I was just working, traveling, and the normal kinds of stuff. I started to stay at home when I heard about the virus in late January, as it was spreading. A friend had caught something strange with lots of fatigue and pneumonia, and I had heard the goings-on in Wuhan. I’ve mostly been at home since. Glad I can work from home!
  • Hope you’re doing well!
  • In spite of the crazy 2020, the economy has rebounded strongly. President Trump seems to not capitalize enough on the strategy of “we have to take precautions, but we also can’t let the economy crash.” Poverty kills, too.
  • The vaccine seems not too far off. The therapeutics (monoclonal antibodies) seems pretty effective and hopefully those can roll out soon. Trying to be optimistic!
  • Stocks have done well. Stay-at-home stocks, tech stocks, and growth kinds of names. Many biotechs rallied with the hopes of vaccines and therapeutics.  I sold my travel and vacation related stocks early in the year.  Except Disney.  Oops.
  • I had thought Peloton would be a really crappy stock. Expensive product with high monthly fees. Where is the growth after everyone who wants one gets one, and a few months later it turns into a clothes rack?  Lockdown hits, people exercise at home.
  • We are closing in on the election, and all the polls suggest Biden in a landslide. Meanwhile, those who ignore polls and focus on battleground state registration trends and mail-in ballot returns think it will be Trump in an electoral landslide.
  • What do I think? Biden. Not my pick, though. I will go more into that in my next post. But not to change your mind one way or another. 
  • The virus has disrupted most of what I do outside of work, so I had to change what I do. I walk a lot.  A lot. Bought some middle-tier binoculars I take with me everywhere, and look at animals and birds. Bought an e-bike and have really explored all over town.  Radrover 5 from Radpower.
  • All that and a weekly Walmart grocery pick up!
  • Hope you are doing well and that your portfolio is hanging in there. Many people may have sold out late winter fearing the worse, but I think we’re doing better than that. Some industries will take a while to recover, others already have.