Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Tuesday Randomosity

  • imageYahoo – $YHOO:  CEO Marissa Mayer was paid $36.6 million in 2012. Seems like a bunch.  Remember when Yahoo was the destination site and home page.  The site is still great for email and fantasy sports.  But that’s a lot of money for a bunch of free services.  They must make it up in volume.
  • Speaking of big salaries, don’t you think Dwight Howard will get a big pay day when he signs with [insert team name here] next season? "I'm going to take my time, get away from the game, my phones and everything and just clear my head," Howard said Tuesday in an end-of-season interview at the team's practice facility. "I'll do what's going to be best for myself, what's going to make me happy. I can't control who likes me, who dislikes me, but I have the right to be happy."
  • Dollar pressured before the Fed makes its policy decision.  Hmm…  Well, when you think about the slower-than-expected GDP last week, unemployment remaining high, and companies beating earnings not because of revenue but because of cost cutting, maybe easy money continues.  But last week didn’t the Fed talk about another stress test for a rising interest rate scenario?
  • Sell in may this year?  Think twiceUsing data going back to 1928, it turns out the best six month period in the first year following a presidential election is March through August, with an average 8.73% return, with the second best being April through September with a 5.95% average return.  Of course, the market is right at a double-top, with slightly new highs. 
  • An update on the secular bear market from Sy Harding  Timely!  …here we are with the S&P 500 back to its previous peaks. Its peak in 2007 exceeded its peak  in 2000 by a fraction. And its peak in 2013 is now exceeding its peak of 2007 by a fraction.
  • Homeownership rate lowest since 1995.  I guess that means renting is popular right now, which means that investment properties should be doing well.
  • Will the Sacramento Kings move to Seattle?  Yesterday, it seemed the answer was no.  Today, the Seattle investor says it isn’t over yet.

#216: Market Thoughts - Sell in May?

Monday, April 29, 2013

Market Thoughts

The stock market cruises to new highs as April winds down. Mediocre economic news probably means the Fed keeps easy money going. The rest of the world looks like they want to print money too. Japan is. The ECB meets soon and they may print money as the EU economies are also very weak.

The Fed meets later this week...

I'm still in cash. Missed the run up!

Sell in May? Will that work this year?
Things have been light with the blog and audioboos. Dealing with personal and join stuff. Weighing me down.

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Apple profit slips 18%

The biggest news about the Apple $AAPL earnings release was that they lowered guidance.  Yes, they'll still sell a boat load of iPhones and iPads.  But there's some high quality competition out there.

For the record, I have an iPhone 5 now, but my next phone may be one of the Samsung bigger-screen phones.

Just sayin'...

Apple profit slips 18%, but investors cheer dividend increase
CNN MONEY | APRIL 23, 2013

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How Obama's tax hikes would hit the rich and middle class

We all know President Obama wants to raise taxes.  On you.  Well, those of you who work for a living anyway.

I don't think a country can tax its way to prosperity.

How Obama's tax hikes would hit the rich and middle class
CNN MONEY | APRIL 23, 2013

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Monday, April 22, 2013

China manufacturing expansion slows

Hey, we knew China was slowing down, right?  Maybe they need to recalculate how the compute their GDP. 

China manufacturing expansion slows
CNN MONEY | APRIL 22, 2013

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Netflix Surges!

I've never owned shares of Netflix, $NFLX.  In some of the Audioboos over the years I went over why I don't own shares "for the long term."  But what a comeback by the DVD and streaming service, signing up over 2m subscribers.  The stock is surging about 26% after the news today.

This is a Peter Lynch "buy what you know" kind of stock for me as I stream movies all week long via the Roku box.  But I didn't buy it.  (LOL.)

We shall see what happens going forward as there are more and more competitors in the streaming business.  But nice job by the company!

Netflix Erases Doubts With Signup Gain Propelling Shares

Netflix Inc. (SPX), vanquishing Wall Street skepticism about its growth prospects, is poised to become the best-performing stock in the Standard & Po... Read more

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Thursday, April 18, 2013

Stock Market at Interesting Place

  • The SP500 is right at the 50dma. If the market bounces and goes up from here, then one could say this pullback was no big deal as the market is just trending up. I think it would be the third trip down to the 50dma since December. No big deal, right?
  • The market could also be moving up to form a right shoulder on a potential head and shoulders chart pattern. Could be. The timing would be interesting, as the pattern would probably play out in April and then hit the Sell in May seasonal pattern. Just thinking out loud.
  • The market could also be breaking down, and this is just a pause at the 50dma before some catalyst sends the index convincingly lower. Heck, the up days are on low volume and the down days are on high volume. The stocks that are rallying are defensive stocks.
  • Anyway... I'm still in cash. I was watching the 1540 level on the SP500 and almost bought at the close as the market closed just above it. The thought being that if the number holds, then we're right at a place where the market could bounce and continue the uptrend. If not, then I just sell it and take a small loss.
  • But, I didn't. Still in cash.
  • Earnings after the bell were mixed. IBM could be a heavy weight on the Dow tomorrow. But other names like Microsoft, Google, and Chipotle seemed to have done better.

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

#215: Stocks Bounce; More on Boston

Monday, April 15, 2013

#214: Explosions Rock Boston; Stocks and Gold Fall

Somebody Selling Something?

It's Monday and somebody is selling something. The headlines are that gold is selling off due to "global growth worries," but hasn't that been with us for awhile? We have known China is slowing down. We know Europe is recessionary and some countries are in downright trouble. And the US economic numbers have been mediocre at best.

We shall see if the bulls can mount their late day comeback as they have in recent days. Or at least rebound tomorrow. It is earnings season so it will be interesting to see how folks react this week.

I remain in cash. Being patient.

Sunday, April 14, 2013

#213: Status Quo and Still in Cash!

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Nothing but Blue Skies

The market was off to the races early and is once again making new highs. They say short covering played a role in today's surge, as the bears grow weary and tired if predicting a correction or bear market day in and day out, while the market moves forward.

I'm still in cash andissing the move. I still believe that market corrections have not been relegated to the history books. It does seem tough to argue against $85B a month of Bernanke bucks, though.


Tuesday, April 09, 2013

New Highs Again

Still in cash. Still missing new highs in this market. It's been an amazing run, with pullbacks - well, what pullbacks? Market looks to be setting up a perfect Sell in May (or thereabouts) scenario. But the bull side, the side that says all this money printing is going into stocks because there's nowhere else to go, is very convincing.


Being patient!




  • The rest of the world economies suck.
  • Heck, the US economic numbers don't look very good, either. But where else can the money flow?
  • The Dodgers Beckett looked bad today, but the bullpen looked even worse!
  • When was the last time you shopped at a JC Penny's? I can't even remember!
  • Microsoft was up 3.57% today. Really?
  • Louisville looked great. I would have taken Michigan +4 if I were in Las Vegas, and LOST!




Friday, April 05, 2013

#212: Jobs Market Selloff and the Great Reversal!

Obama Budget to Cap Retirement Accounts at $3 Million

Obama Budget to Cap Retirement Accounts at $3 Million

The budget President Barack Obama will submit on April 10 will contain a proposal that would prohibit individuals from accumulating more than $3 million in Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) and tax-preferred retirement accounts. 

According to a White House statement, the Obama administration believes the current rules allow some wealthy individuals "to accumulate many millions of dollars in these accounts, substantially more than is needed to fund reasonable levels of retirement saving."

"The budget would limit an individual's total balance across tax-preferred accounts to an amount sufficient to finance an annuity of not more than $205,000 per year in retirement, or about $3 million in 2013," the statement said. "This proposal would raise $9 billion over 10 years."

Brian Graff, executive director and chief executive officer of the American Society of Pension Professionals and Actuaries, told Bloomberg News his group intends to "vigorously oppose" the proposal. 

"It is a plan killer," Graff said. "As business owners reach the cap, they will lose their incentive to maintain a plan, and either shut down the plan or greatly reduce benefits. This would leave workers with a greatly diminished plan or without any plan at all."

Thursday, April 04, 2013

Kevin Ware does Letterman's Top 10 List

Louisville's Kevin Ware does Letterman's Top 10 List - nice!

Ware chats with Letterman, does Top 10 List

ATLANTA (AP) — Kevin Ware might have a future as a comedian. The Louisville guard was at ease as he presented the Top 10 List on the "Late Show with... Read more

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Nikkei mounts another dramatic rally

Whoa, check out the Nikkei after the BoJ says it will make it rain cash!

Nikkei mounts another dramatic rally after BoJ decision

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Japan Stocks Jump

Might as well Jump!  Bank of Japan makin' it rain, and the money has got to flow somewhere.  With all the funny money printing going on, is there a scenario where asset prices don't jump?  Can these markets go down?

Japan Stocks Jump as Yen Weakens on BOJ Stimulus; Won Declines

Japanese shares jumped to a 4 1/2- year high, the yen dropped and bond yields fell to a record low on speculation central bank stimulus will push up ... Read more

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Up and Down Market Thoughts

The market goes up, the market goes down. Then up. Then down. La-dee-da, and so it goes. Rather tiring but shouldn't I be trading this a bit more?

Ah, but then that pattern would stop, right?

Still in cash. Still being patient. But that isn't easy. It is so tempting to put some chips on the table, when you're just sitting around stacking and unstacking chips.

Hope this finds you well. We had some rain the past day so no cycling today! I have been doing some spring cleaning and shredding tons of papers. I was able to fill up the recycling trash bin!

Tuesday, April 02, 2013

#211: Stock Correction Coming?

Monday, April 01, 2013

Safe Stocks Outperforming

Not a great day on the market, but the "safe stocks" in the Dow continued to outperform. The rest of the market didn't look very good at all. It's the first of April - A new month! So this is still monthly strength with new money being dollar cost averaged in, right? Folks seem bullish on TV, although there are many seeming to climb all over each other to warm of a top.


I'm still in cash. FWIW.