Quick Market Thoughts

The stock market had been strong this week, but showed a little weakness today. There are lots of news stories floating by. Apple's earnings were amazing. Netflix is the comeback kid. But there have also been a few misses. Europe and Greece and such are still there, but largely ignored this week. The Fed says they're going to keep interest rates low half-way through the 2nd Obama term, or 2014. The President is promising free student loans and cheap refinancing for all.

The stock market looks tired to me. I think we're due for a pullback The Black Box has re-iterated a sell signal. If I was scaling out of stocks, I'd have three sell points at this point

I have reduced my long positions by about 20%, which leaves me - tada! lets do the math together - about 80% long. But I could sell more at any point. Or go back long. Or put the cash on a super bowl bet.

Hmmm.... Does everyone love the New York Giants and the points? Might lean the other way.
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Still struggling through this stupid cold. Cough. Walking the dog but haven't felt up to a podcast or audioboo.

#138: Stocks, Black Box, South Carolina Primary

#128: Black Box, Stocks, Europe, Other Stuff

#125: Black Box Buy Signal, Stocks Down 6 in a Row, Occupy Best Buy!

Saturday Randomosity

• The Black Box is rather sanguine about the market, as indexes are now above their 50dma.
• Geraldine Ferraro passed away. 1984 was the first national election I voted in. I remember her debate with then-Vice President George H. W. Bush. I remember her being an inspiration to a generation of women. May you rest in peace. Thoughts and prayers with your family and friends.
• Maloofs reject plan to keep Sacramento Kings in Sacramento. Jim Crandell has been talking about the last-ditch effort on the Channel Fox 40 news. Eh, let them go to Anaheim. I used to share season tickets to the Kings. It was fun, but just got too costly and the games are now on TV. Can three NBA franchises survive in LA?
• DUI app makers respond to Senators. So, apps like Trapster and Phantomalert show speed traps and DUI checkpoints on your smart phone. The government worries that this helps folks drive around the enforcement activities. The app makers say maybe this makes folks not have that last drink.
• Mike Sims-Walker wants to "pull a Lebron" and join the Dolphins. Er, Mike Sims-Walker is to the NFL as Lebron is to the NBA? Anyone buying that? I'm not even sure he'd be an upgrade from Hartline.
• Did you see John Stossel's "Freeloaders" special on Fox News? He did a fantastic job talking about handouts at all levels, from panhandlers, to lawyers, to corporations, to the government., and even to himself. Well done!
• I haven't bought an iPad 2. Chris Pirillo had a good "speed test" comparison on his blog. Not that much. I think I'll wait until the next generation. Sorry no link as I'm on the iPad 1 and feeling lazy (in a Saturday way) about fetching the link. And it's raining, which if there was a steroid-like injection to increase laziness, rain is it.
• Butler made a nice run, but looks like Florida is asserting themselves. So goes March Madness. It's fun the first weekend as the little schools win some upsets, but then the big boys tend to take over the second weekend.

UPDATE: Butler!!!

Hump Day Thoughts

* At least the market recovered from weakness today. I'm in the summer doldrums and just trying to make it from weekend to weekend. My indicators (aka the Black Box) has been on a sell signal for a while (it was early), but I'm not doing much other than moving some things around. We'll see if that matters or not. Right now my portfolio is going down.

* Earnings season on deck. At least I think it is. LOL. Alcoa today, and they were not as bad as feared.

* I was reading some of the archives. What struck me as horrrrible was when I was poking fun at those citing the inverted yield curve back in 2006. Oopsie. They were right. I was wrong.

* I'm in first place in Fantasy Baseball. Love the MLB.com app for the iPhone. Listened to the Rockies today.

* Google to release an operating system that will utlimately compete with Microsoft Windows and Linux. I don't know, do we really need a new operating system? Is Google bored and looking for something to do? Are they retaliating for Microsoft's Bing search engine? (Which is pretty good, by the way).

* With Michael Jackson's service yesterday, I was hoping the news would die down and we could all move on. Together. Man, it's still in the headlines and dominating the radio shows.

* When I changed my commenting system to Disqus, it blew away all the old comments. Not that there were that many, but I miss them. Sob.

* I love Google Reader for reading blog feeds.

* Watched a 2001 movie starring William Macy and Neve Campbell called "Panic." Man she's hot. Shudder. Movie? Eh, somewhat entertaining. Middle-aged crisis where Macy finds himself unhappy with his life situation and stumbles into Neve.

* Now there's an idea in there somewhere.

Black Box Buy Signals

Black Box buy signals on the market. All over the place.

WWLRD?

Roger Nusbaum asks, what would Lou Rukeyser do? Remember back in 1987 after the market crash?  Lou said, "Let's start with what's really important tonight," he told viewers. "It's just your money, not your life. Everybody who really loved you a week ago still loves you tonight. And now that that's all fully in perspective, let me say. .. Ouch! And: Eek! And: Medic!"

I've found myself saying much of the latter the past few weeks. It's been pretty brutal for us longs. I was able to do some tax loss rotations Friday morning. Hopefully, that'll be the end of that.

I've been running the Black Box models against the market, and the volatility is really throwing the models for a loop. As I mentioned over a month ago, I've quit trading them until volatilty settles down. And truth be told, there's no leadership in this market. At least from the bullish side. One can say that on the bearish side, financials have been leading.

Ah... Saturday. Hard to believe the college football season is winding down. Already!

New Bear Market Lows

• Well, the market got trashed on Wednesday. Volume picked up on the decline.  It's very ugly in Whoville.  The Disciplined Stock Market Investor notes that the recent rally attempt is dead after three of four indexes make new 52-week lows.  We're at levels not seen since 2003.
• He writes, It was a brutal day if you were a falling knife catcher as the market took those impatient bulls who believed the lows were in out and beat them silly with a 6.5% loss on the Nasdaq, a 6.6% loss on the NYSE, and a 6.1% loss on the SP 500. The losses were made even more damaging by the fact that they hit new lows from the recent rally attempt and volume picked up giving the market a very heavy distribution day.
• Information Arbitrage writes, Why can't we admit that...  ...the stock market will continue to go down, regardless of perceptions that "this quality stock is cheap" or "this is the buying opportunity of a lifetime?"  And more...
• You know, my intermediate timing models have been pure junk during this downtrend.  The old Black Box has been working at less than 50-50 and the huge swings are creating big whipsaws in trading.  The Black Box Jr., the recent model, is actually doing better.  It is on the sidelines.
• Naked Shorts with random recession datapoint du retail.
• Hey, even Warren Buffett's Berkshire falls the most in 23 years.  Berkshire has posted four straight profit declines, the worst streak in at least 13 years, on falling returns at insurance businesses and investment losses.  Hey, maybe Warren ought to quit meandering around with Barack Obama and take a look at some charts.  Or Value Line reports.
• I felt a cold/flu coming on earlier.  Started the Zicam, and it seems to have helped.

Randoms (and Maria Sharapova!)

• There is one disadvantage when playing Nintendo Wii tennis compared to out on the courts. And try as I might, I can't create a Mii that looks anything like Maria Sharapova.
• Market selling off two days in a row? According to CBS Marketwatch:  U.S. stocks fell sharply Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing over 150 points, as news that unit labor costs jumped in the first quarter fueled concerns over inflation, interest rates and rising bond yields, further sapping enthusiasm in the market.  Yeah, I think they're wrong about inflation so we'll see how that plays out.
• Eliminating my QID hedge with a 9% loss.  Uh oh, probably wrong time to do this, right?  Ahead of the seasonally weak period?  Yeah, I know.  Just raising some cash here in case this is Weird Wacky Wednesday ahead of options expiration week.  Nothing scientific here, but I've noticed that if the week before options is weak and we see a big selloff on wednesday, then it sometimes sets up a rally for options week.   I'm still holding conservative positions and not looking to do much this summer. 
• I'm still updating "the black box" weekly to spot market buy and sell signals, but it's been pretty quiet lately.  It best spots double tops or bottoms.  We've been trending mostly up so there's been no double anything.
• The Miami Dolphins signs a veteran QB to shore up their ailing offense, and Sports Illustrated predicts they'll go to the Super Bowl!  Oh wait, that was last year.  But the Dolphins did trade for veteran QB Trent Green today.  Sorry, Daunte.  I guess you'll have to go play somewhere else...
• Adam on the stock everyone loves, The Google.  Yeah, agree.  Hasn't done much trend wise...
• Apple profits look thin on Apple TV.  According to an iSuppli teardown analysis, the bill of materials for the box costs Apple about $237. The box sells for $299 at retail. That’s a gross margin of 20.7% - but since that number does not include additional costs like cables, packaging and marketing, the real profits are smaller still.  And as I blogged about recently, wouldn't you rather have a Nintendo Wii that can do mostly the same thing (for cheaper)?
• Do you use Google Reader, Bloglines, or other?  Thoughts?  I've been a bloglines user, but have recently exported my subscriptions and am trying google reader.  Just for funsies.
• Also added a new widget, "Snap shots."  When you move your mouse over a link, it should respond with a pop-up preview of the website being linked to.  Not sure if this is cool or an annoyance, so let me know...
• Ooops, getting search engine sloppy... Maria Sharapova (nude, naked, topless, snorkeling, smoking, dancing, stripping, tennis, underwear).