Thursday, November 20, 2008

New Bear Market Lows

  • Well, the market got trashed on Wednesday. Volume picked up on the decline.  It's very ugly in Whoville.  The Disciplined Stock Market Investor notes that the recent rally attempt is dead after three of four indexes make new 52-week lows.  We're at levels not seen since 2003.
  • He writes, It was a brutal day if you were a falling knife catcher as the market took those impatient bulls who believed the lows were in out and beat them silly with a 6.5% loss on the Nasdaq, a 6.6% loss on the NYSE, and a 6.1% loss on the SP 500. The losses were made even more damaging by the fact that they hit new lows from the recent rally attempt and volume picked up giving the market a very heavy distribution day.
  • Information Arbitrage writes, Why can't we admit that...  ...the stock market will continue to go down, regardless of perceptions that "this quality stock is cheap" or "this is the buying opportunity of a lifetime?"  And more...
  • You know, my intermediate timing models have been pure junk during this downtrend.  The old Black Box has been working at less than 50-50 and the huge swings are creating big whipsaws in trading.  The Black Box Jr., the recent model, is actually doing better.  It is on the sidelines.
  • Naked Shorts with random recession datapoint du retail.
  • Hey, even Warren Buffett's Berkshire falls the most in 23 yearsBerkshire has posted four straight profit declines, the worst streak in at least 13 years, on falling returns at insurance businesses and investment losses.  Hey, maybe Warren ought to quit meandering around with Barack Obama and take a look at some charts.  Or Value Line reports.
  • I felt a cold/flu coming on earlier.  Started the Zicam, and it seems to have helped.