Well, not encouraging but this from Peter Brimelow asks if the Bears' glass is half-empty or half-full? Right now, I'd say their cup runneth over.
In the half empty camp: Dow Theory letters' Richard Russell. He wrote Wednesday night: "You may not realize it, but the Transports have already broken below their October lows -- up until today, the Industrials have not confirmed. Alas, the market has rendered its verdict-- today the Industrials closed below their Oct. 27 low. The primary bear market was re-confirmed. The direction of the market is to lower levels, how much lower, the Dow Theory can not tell us. The tragedy continues to play out, all that remains is the 50% principle level of 7,470 [half the bull market peak] and the 2002 low of 7,286"
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Which brings us to the half-full camp: Michael Cintolo's Cabot Market Letter.
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In the short term, Cintolo is almost hopeful, although Wednesday's action was obviously a surprise. He writes: "You can see how the Dow has tested the 8,000 level several times since early October ... you'll also see that the number of new lows has declined sharply on each foray lower. Even today's figure was relatively contained. That's a sign that selling pressures are gradually easing (believe it or not), which is a characteristic seen at every major low ... we wouldn't put it past the market to rally off this 8,000 area and begin a sustainable upmove."
Just to throw grease on the fire, Paul Farrell writes 30 reasons we'll be in Great Depression 2 by 2011.