December Swoon Market Thoughts

• This just in: December’s bullish period actually starts this next Friday. So you know.  That’s the official word from The Mount.  Sorry if everyone got excited too early in the month.  Can we get a do-over?
• You know, the economic data is a bit mixed.  I think the Federal Reserve is looking for any excuse to raise rates.  Not sure economic data is it.  It’s seems like the economy is slowing down to me.  Maybe that’s why the market is flat, in anticipation of slower growth.
• You’re going to need to add to your winter wardrobe. It looks like the nations of the world gathered in Paris to save the world from climate change, and we have to turn the global temperature thermostat down by 2 degrees. 
• I wonder how the market will do the last year of President Barack Obama? 
• The last year of George Bush: –37%.
• The last year of Bill Clinton: –9.1%.
• The last year of George HW Bush: 7.7%.
• The last year of Ronald Reagan:  16.8%
• The last year of Jimmy Carter: 32.4%
• The news is all about the terrorism.  I suppose with recent events and political candidates out campaigning, that’s the new normal as well.  But it makes the news hard to watch.  I turn on the Fox Business Block (Cost of Freedom) this morning, and I want to see some financial analysis of the markets.  Plenty of other shows cover politics and world events.  But instead, we get Gary B. Smith, aka “The Chartman,” talking current events.  Ugh.  And I like me some Gary B. Smith talking stocks and economics.  Miss that.
• In the college football lull period between the end of the conference championships and the bowl games.  The networks provide some college basketball games, but I’m not quite ready for that, yet.  You?
• I am still keeping track of how the Fox Business Block gurus are doing versus the market and each other.  QQQ is in the lead, followed by Gary B. Smith.  I will do an update at the end of the year.  Also following the IBD 50 and Motif IBD 25 portfolios.
• To change the climate, the world leaders have decided we must cut the dreaded CO2 emissions resulting from you living your life.
• There is a scientific way to win at rock-paper-scissors.  So you know,
• Jonathan Honig and Wayne Rogers don’t even make stock picks on Cashin’ In anymore.  Fox puts their stock picks online, sometimes.  Sometimes Fox posts a broken link.  Or no link.  It’s like the show has given up on “business” since Eric Bolling took over.
• Obviously, I am a proud climate denier.  I believe the goal of those in the climate change movement is to accumulate money.  Either for themselves via a salary, or via a climate change slush fund that can be used to expense their lifestyle against.  You know, the latter is like certain charitable funds set up in the name of a good cause, then the folks running the thing hire family and friends, expense their travel, party, and avoid taxes.  I’m looking at you, Hillary Clinton.  Just speaking my mind on this.
• The Los Angeles Lakers have won 3 games.  Only the Philadelphia 76ers have won less:  1.  And that one win came against… The LOS ANGELES LAKERS! 

Saturday Market Thoughts and San Bernadino

• It’s funny.  On December 1st, we were told how great the month of December is for stocks.  Best month of the year!  And with the index up nicely the first trading day, clear sailing ahead, right? Not exactly.  The stock market then was swept away by fear.  Fear of a rate hike.  Fear of terrorism.  Fear.  But then Friday came, and all was forgotten.  The jobs number was good, which should have created a dog pile reaction on fear, but instead the market had a huge rally.  So when all was said and done, did the market really do anything this week?
• Yes.  San Bernadino.  I mean what can I say?  The pessimist inside of me says that this is the new normal.  This has nothing to do with guns.  We’ve had guns our whole history.  This is a change in our country.  And have you noticed the arsenal the police roll onto the scene with?  The police is now a military unit.  Seems to me that they are planning for more of this, too.  Yes.  Fear.
• Football playoffs today.  Should be some good ones.  I like that the NCAA now has a small playoff system set up.  At least this is better than just picking two teams.  I think it needs to expand to 8, though.  We don’t need 68 teams like March Madness.  But definitely it’s hard to pick the top 4.  The top 8 would include some teams that are really close in talent.
• I’m sort of amazed at how low oil prices are.  It is cold out there.  And the supply seems to be sufficient and slightly above what we need.  And since oil is traded in US dollars, and the dollar is gaining strength, I suppose that’s another reason commodities are overall lower.  I still have this gut feeling that it wouldn’t take much to drive oil higher.’'
• In the biggest news of the day, Kim Kardashian and Kayne West had a baby boy today.
• I find it hard to watch the news channels after terrorist attacks.  Hashing and rehashing with incomplete information.
• I think it’s great that Mark Zuckerberg will give away 99% of his Facebook shares.  Another example along with Bill Gates, of the rich folks giving back.  This is so much better than the government soaking it up in taxes and wasting it.  Maybe the money will do some good.
• Donald Trump’s lead in the GOP polls continues to grow.  Ugh.
• And by the way, declining oil prices will mean job cuts.  I’m looking at you, North Dakota.
• So, on Black Friday I bought a Kindle Fire 7” tablet for cheap.  It’s actually quite zippy.  What don’t I like about it?  It runs this crippled version of Android that links to the Amazon app store.  So not all the Google apps are available.  But heck.  It was cheap.  And it’s not bad just to leave on the coffee table to grab for news. Of course, I have over half a dozen tablets now that can do the same thing. 

December Stock Rally!

·       The December. Best month for stocks of all the months they say.  Party on, Wayne.  The market inches up near the all time highs… again.

·       So, $YHOO to spin off the core Internet business?  Leaving Yahoo with… uh, what?  Remember when Yahoo was the internet home page?  Kind of like the evolutionary process from the local BBS, to AOL, to Yahoo.  Kind of sad to see it wither away.  Not sure where they went wrong.  Maybe the competition is better.  Still good for fantasy leagues, although I think most of my leagues have moved on to ESPN.

·       Good column at Barrons on $JNJ.  I’ve owned Johnson & Johnson for awhile.  I just think it will always be around.  No more tears.  I use it in my dividend stack of stocks, and don’t expect it to be a growth monster, but should move up over time while paying out cash.  Maybe it gets interesting if they break it up.

·       Streaming The Man in the High Castle on Amazon Prime.  Pretty good.  So far.  I’m about half way through…  Jessica Jones next on the $NFLX – Netflix.

·       Did you read where Donald Trump wants $5M to participate in the next GOP debate?  He’s not my guy, but I’d be tempted to not pay him.  Call his bluff.  Can you imagine him telling the Climate Change conference that he’s not going unless they pay him money?  Wait – that’s probably true for most of the folks that go to that, right?

·       I keep thinking that I need to reallocate my portfolio.  Maybe towards the end of the month.  It’s very high beta right now.  At least the trading portion.  I do have most in SPY.

End of November

• Stocks basically flat for the year.  A sideways correction?
• Will the Fed finally raise rates in December? 
• The biggest threat to the planet was ended today, when the MRI on New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski showed no tear, only a bruise.  
• None of the "sure thing" Fed hikes have happened yet.  So the recent economic news has seemingly been robust enough to increase rates. But there are also some lackluster economic numbers.  We shall see. 
• Sometimes, instead of a crash, the market trades back and forth in a narrow range.  At the same time, earnings growth continues.  This has the effect of lowering PE multiples and high market valuations without the stomach churning drop in share prices. 
• Carolina Panthers undefeated, you say?
• My fantasy football season seems to be unraveling. Injuries and mediocre players.  When you have to sit Sunday morning and analyze which players to start and sit, you have a mediocre team. Should be obvious. 
• Anyway, I'm still 100% long after going all in late this summer.  
• Just thinking out loud, but in regard to stocks: Clinton's last year in office sucked.  Bush's last year in office sucked. And here comes Obama's last year.  Sell stocks?

Energy: Selling Exxon and Buying EOG

Selling $XOM and buying $EOG.  I don't want to hold a stock as it goes through a federal investigation of climate change, and if that results in billions of fines or penalties.  I'm scared. 

Want energy exposure of some sort so going into $EOG.  Smaller dividend.  Also riskier.  Should benefit with higher energy prices. If we ever have those again.

Sell Rosh Hashanah Buy Yom Kippur

• Today is Yom Kippur.  Are you buying stocks?  
• Hillary Clinton killed the biotechs yesterday by lashing out at high drug prices.  Well, I don't want to be bipartisan.  Maybe it was Ben Carson's comments regarding a Muslim President that sent the drug stocks tanking.  Maybe!
• Reason du jour for stock sell off:  Slowing global growth.  It's always something... 
• I'm long stocks. Might buy a little more today.  Almost fully invested as it is, so riding this down.  Not too worried about the long term, but looks pretty volatile right now.
• Colts 0-2.  Hey, out of control beard Andrew Luck, you were supposed to win the Super Bowl!
• So, Fear of the Walking Dead has been pretty good. Yes, the last episode was a brief pause in the downfall of LA.  Sort of.  I mean you can see that life has changed and it won't be getting better.  But we know how things look a few weeks down the road due to The Walking Dead, right Rick Grimes?
• Russia is expanding their military role in Syria, as if they paid no attention to how the US fared in Iraq and Afghanistan.  Or how the Soviet Union did back in the 80's trying that.  Tough to occupy a country when they ultimately don't want you there.  The reality is that while this is being seen as Russia flexing their muscles, they will lose some lives and spend a lot of money trying to do that.
• I think Donald Trump is ruining the election cycle for the GOP.  At this point, the Republicans may have to ride out 2016 and try again in 2020.  I think Rubio is the best chance now.  Carly would be fun, but the Left will hammer her for her reign at HP.  Gee, find a big tech company that did well during the 2000-2003 tech bubble collapse.
• VM hammered for some sort of emissions testing shenanigans.  I wonder how common gaming the system is regarding that.  I'm taking the over.
• OK... Home sick.  Going to see if this sucker sells down into the close.  Good luck.  

Uh Oh

• $SPY - Well. I bought the dip, too. Doesn't look like that will break even for awhile.  I still have some cash so now I'm thinking ... Hmm, maybe wait a bit on that. 
• No recession due to a spike in oil prices.  No inverted yield curve. Profits at record highs. Interest rates at their lows and very little inflation.  GDP still positive. Two hour lines at Disney.  So this sell off is probably a correction and not a Great Recession.
• I liked Fear the Walking Dead. Slow build but that's what it is supposed to be. Heck, in the Walking Dead, Rick is only in a coma for a little while when he wakes up and society is toast.
• So... At least I bought stocks of companies not going away.  Disney.  Facebook.   Apple.  JNJ.   Maybe they don't go up in a V move, but not worried over the long term. 
• Havent watched too much preseason NFL.  Hard to get into it versus streaming Netflix shows.

  
  

  Been on vacation a lot this month. LOL.