Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Market Thoughts

  • As I mentioned friday, the week after options week tends to be a little weak. Can we blame it, after the nice run last week?  If we are in a new leg up, then the bears should take advantage of the weakness to try to play "catch up" after getting whacked last week.  If we're still stuck in the trading range, then this could be the dreaded August-September swoon that everyone seems to be expecting.  In either case, since I believe the overall trend is still bullish, I'm content to let the short-term folks play the wiggles while I remain in the volatile beta I picked up in June near the bottom of the summer trading range. 
  • Of course, whenever the Fed Freakies are out and about, they say the darnedest things.  Michael Moskow, talking Fed Head of Chicago, came out roaring like a lion.  He said his assessment of current economic conditions is "that the risk of inflation remaining too high is greater than the risk of growth being too low. Thus some additional firming of policy may yet be necessary to bring inflation back into the comfort zone within a reasonable period of time."  So we're back in the environment where the Fed are out scaring investors.  I think if the Fed continues to hike, they will create a recession.  Economic growth is slowing.  Energy prices are acting like a tax on consumers.  These certainly aren't inflationary.
  • The cartoon Tom and Jerry is in trouble for glamourizing smoking.  They chase each other at high speed, wielding axes and hammers. But the famous cartoon duo of Tom and Jerry are in trouble in Britain for smoking on screen.  Just my 2-cents, but this is ridiculous.  What are we trying to do, put kids in a bubble in the hope that they'll never be exposed to anything bad?  Excuse me, but I think parents are responsible for teaching kids right and wrong, healthy and unhealthy, and then when the kids are old enough they'll hopefully make the best decisions.
  • More later...

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