Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Ahead of the Fed

  • The market meandering around ahead of the Fed. Despite all the hullaballoo a couple of weeks ago when the market fell and folks were worried about a bear market, here we are again just a couple percent below the previous highs for this bull market.
  • How does one position oneself prior to a Fed meeting?  I'm thinking we're going to get a rate cut here.  My thought is that .25% is the number.  Is it priced in?  Will folks sell the news or buy the news?  Hard to tell.  And what if the Fed does more than .25%?  The economy is still below trend growth and inflation is tame.  There is room to cut rates.  And the parsing of the Fed comments will make for a fun afternoon tomorrow!
  • I remain 100% long.  Haven't done much trading.  Just riding the bull.  I think the trend is up and short-term timing here just risks underperformance.  My intermediate indicators (aka The Black Box) are fine.  I'm watchin' them, though.
  • Michelle with the Mother of All Tax Hikes Halloween video!  Charlie and the gang proposing what amounds to a $3.5 trillion tax hike.  The amazing thing about the Democrats' tax hike proposal?  It raises taxes on the poor.    In 2001, the Republican-led Congress and the president enacted a sweeping tax cut plan that lowered taxes for every American.  The Pelosi-Rangel plan would eliminate those tax cuts, raising taxes for every single tax bracket and eliminating the new 10 percent rate Congress established specifically to reduce the tax burden on low- and middle-income working families
  • Brett Favre killed me last night in Fantasy Football.  Everything I needed not to happen, happened in the last 2 minutes of that game and overtime.  Stupid Broncos.
  • 77-yr old carded when buying beer.

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