- As I type, the market is very flat for the day as it seemingly waits for the payroll numbers tomorrow. My thoughts? Even though the country is near full employment, the economy is growing slowly. I'd imagine the new payrolls number will be weak and that total unemployment would be creeping up a smidge until the Fed's magic rate cuts get cheaper money working in the economy. Remaining 100% long with beta.
- The folks at CBS Marketwatch also are blaming today's market on tomorrow. The session could prove to be a quiet one, "as traders pull back commitments ahead of the potential market-moving monthly employment report tomorrow," said Elliot Spar, option/market strategist at Stifel Nicolaus & Co.
- Have you read The Little Book that Beat the Market? Another historical model that shows that it's oh-so-easy to spank the SP500 over the long term! Not sure how it has done since printed, but there is a website called Magic Formula Investing that lists stocks meeting the criteria. Interesting. Not a recommendation, of course.
- Of course, there is a blog that follows the Magic Formula...
- All Financial Matters is also doing a porfolio based on the Magic Formula...
- Citigroup stock (C) has been a roller coaster lately, eh? This is one of my favorite stocks to trade in and out of, because the Black Box formula I use works really well with C.
- That's the key for me, by the way. I don't scan 7000 stocks a day. I have a list of 20 that work well with my Black Box.
- You know, little talked about is how the slower economic growth and real estate recession will affect state and local tax revenues. I live in CA where deficit spending has become the norm. With housing prices in a recession, tax revenues from increasing property taxes and associated housing fees are falling off a cliff. If the stock market doesn't have a gangbuster year, capital gains taxes will be lower, too. This will affect how much money the government has to spend in 2008.
In Edit: Another blog that follows the Magic Formula is MFI Diary.