Friday, October 05, 2007

Rally Caps are Working!

  • Someone better call the fire department, because the market's on fire! Yesterday's malaise was blamed on today, but today also gets the credit for the rally.
  • Huh? 
  • Well, there was a lot of worrying yesterday about the jobs numbers to be released this morning.  What really happened?  The numbers came out better than expected and previous months' numbers were revised upwards.  The bears were thinking that the economy is sliding into a recession, but we've now had 49 consecutive months of jobs growth.  Slow and steady wins the race, Mr. Rabbit.  Yes, the GDP isn't on fire, but isn't that a good thing?  Bad things happen when growth is too strong.  The Fed tightens rates and removes the punch bowl from the economy.
  • The dollar is rallying and bonds are faultering a bit on the thought that maybe the Fed won't cut rates again this month.  But I think the jury is still out on that one.  Inflation is nowhere to be seen, and even with better than expected jobs numbers, we're still below the number required to absorb new workers into the economy.  I could see the Fed cutting .25 on Halloween.  You?
  • Anyone else have Denver Broncos' running back Travis Henry on their Fantasy Football team?  He's possibly facing a one-year suspension due to a failed drug test.  Of course, appeals are in the work so who knows what his status will be from week to week.  Tempted to dump him and pick up Selvin Young, if the Fantasy vultures haven't jumped on that one already!  Or pick up any running back going up against the Miami Dolphins. 
  • On the Dilbert blog, Scott Adams uses his knowledge of economics to help avoid speeding tickets.  

"When you have a working knowledge of economics, it’s like having a mild super power."

"If you plan to speed, it also pays to be a middle-aged male. For years I have been observing who the police pull over for speeding and who they don’t. A police officer (usually male) has lots of choices for who to ticket for speeding. If he is heterosexual, and stops a heterosexual male, he has no chance of getting sex, and a non-zero chance of getting killed. If he stops a female, he has some chance of being offered sex (or at least some flirting) to get out of the ticket, and not much risk of violence. Cops are rational and make the correct economic decision most of the time. Where I live, about 80% of all motorists who are stopped for speeding are women, and it has been that way since I can remember. Economics tells me it will stay that way, at least as long as the opportunity for getting head is more valuable than the opportunity of getting punched in the head. (If it’s different where you live, your cops are either gay or irrational.)

  • It's still early.  Market direction could change.  Looks great now, though.  EH!

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