Monday, January 21, 2008

The Fed F's Up Again

  • The Fed raised rates too high.  They kept rates too high for too long.  They prattled on about inflation that didn't exist.  So, here we are. 
  • Where?  Waiting for a bottom.  The market continues to free fall, pricing in the future.  Since the market hasn't bottomed, I bring you Linda Park from Star Trek Enterprise.
  • Never be afraid to admit mistakes, and move on.  This market "correction" has fooled me and my Black Box indicators.  While I don't expect the Black Box to be 100%, this is a big miss.  I am currently 100% long, and looking at the market futures it looks like tomorrow is going to be a very bad day for bulls.  The DOW futures are -520.  The SP500 futures are -60.  The Nasdaq futures are -76.  Look out below.   Yeesh.  Set the DVR for the open and record it.  Play it whenever you feel overly bullish somewhere down the road.
  • I won't do anything at the open.  No reason to panic.  The SP500 is already off over 15% from its closing high.  I won't be raising cash here or buying inverse ETFS, shorting stocks, or buying bear funds.  Congratulations to those who did that at the top of the market, but I'm not going to sell weakness.
  • Looking to the future, I plan on remaining 100% long.  I haven't done much since buying in at what I though was a retest of the bottom from the Fall trading range.  Continuing to dollar cost average in.  If the market does find a bottom and rallies, I'll probably get more aggressive on a retest (with divergences).
  • Maybe we'll get a reversal tomorrow.  Keep an eye on that.  And the other... on Linda Park.

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