‎Market Wrap!

The market was pretty dull today.  I suppose most have made their tax moves and reallocations as needed.  Meanwhile, there are New Year's parties and bowl games to prepare for.

I've actually put some cash to work, although still have a cash position.  Instead of an index or ETF, I've been looking at strong stocks that are pulling back near support.  Maybe those will start off the new year with a bang.

Maybe they won't.

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Market Wrap For December 30: Markets Quiet Ahead of New Year's Eve

Jayson Derrick

Benzinga - Benzinga - ‎Monday‎, ‎December‎ ‎30‎, ‎2013

As to be expected for this time of the year, volume was light today with little market moving data o...

If you have Windows 8, open this in Finance.

http://www.bing.com/r/1E/JdzRR?a=0&m=en-us

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Holiday sales rose 3.5 percent

This seems to be relatively good news. Electronics sales about the same, but increases in jewelry and children's apparel…

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Research firm says holiday sales rose 3.5 percent

U.S. retail sales rose 3.5 percent during the holiday season this year, helped by deep discounts at malls and purchases of children's apparel and jewelry, MasterCard Advisors SpendingPulse said.

http://www.columbiatribune.com/business/saturday_business/research-firm-says-holiday-sales-rose-percent/article_76e446a4-6f60-11e3-baba-10604b9f6eda.html

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Are Folks Scared of Stocks?

I can't blame anyone for being scared of stocks after the two market crashes since 2000, in addition to a real estate crash.

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Mom and Pop Wary of Stocks

Alexandra Scaggs

The Wall Street Journal. - The Wall Street Journal. - Fri Dec 27 15:48:09 UTC 2013

With the stock market at an all-time high, experts are puzzled why more money isn't flowing into stock-oriented mutual funds.

If you have Windows 8, open this in The Wall Street Journal.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304753504579282880935397364.html?mod=rss_money_and_investing_total_headlines?a=1&m=en-us

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The MACD Crossover!‎

Hey! There are MACD crossovers to be excited about! 

It's kind of funny, that after such a move in the market, the MACD is finally experiencing a "bullish crossover" in a few of the index trackers as of today.  Yes, it is a lagging indicator, and I don't use it in my Black Box - maybe I should start.

But even with some of the other indicators flashing overbought signals, and I'm looking at you, RSI, that situation can remain in place for quite a while during a bull run.

My guess is that we still will not see much of a selloff the last 2 trading days of 2013.  It would be nice to see some sitting around consolidating ahead of the new year.  Then we can all get excited about the January effect next!

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Market Review For December 27, 2013

Justin Kuepper

Investopedia - Investopedia - ‎Friday‎, ‎December‎ ‎27‎, ‎2013

Major U.S. indices moved higher this week, as higher new home sales, lower jobless claims and positi...

If you have Windows 8, open this in Finance.

http://www.bing.com/r/1E/J1QSv?a=0&m=en-us

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‎1.3 million losing unemployment benefits

Unemployment benefits are running out.  Who wants to bet that Congress fixes this ASAP?  My bet is that the Republicans want to keep the focus on Obamacare and not cutting off funding to those out of work. Stay tuned!

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1.3 million losing unemployment benefits Saturday

By Bradley Klapper

Associated Press - Associated Press - Fri Dec 27 18:30:00 UTC 2013

WASHINGTON — More than 1 million Americans are bracing for a harrowing, post-Christmas jolt as exten...

If you have Windows 8, open this in Finance.

http://www.bing.com/r/1E/J09c9?a=0&m=en-us

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Twitter Rally

That's a triple in $TWTR - Twitter since its IPO.  Just last month.  Just saying.

 

(And I missed it).

Just being honest.

In the Peter Lynch "buy what you know" category, we all know TWTR, right?  It is a huge brand.  At some point, I'd like to own it.  But after a triple in a month?  Eh…

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Twitter Rally Picks Up Steam

Steven Russolillo

The Wall Street Journal. - The Wall Street Journal. - Fri Dec 27 01:13:34 UTC 2013

Twitter shares have nearly tripled since their initial public offering last month, including an almost 5% gain on Thursday, making the microblogging site's IPO one of the best-performing this year.

If you have Windows 8, open this in The Wall Street Journal.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304753504579282832693764394.html?mod=rss_front_total_headlines?a=1&m=en-us

Sent from Surface Pro

The Twitter

$TWTR – Twitter stock having a huge move. CNBC debating on the future of the stock.  For anyone who has been around since the 1990’s, we all know how this ends – right?  Maybe “this time is different,” but I can’t help thinking of those internet, tech, and B2B high flying stocks of 1999-2000.

The big difference is that people actually use Twitter.  Some of those late 1990’s stocks didn’t have much of a business model.

That being said, Twitter is free, right?  It has lots of eyeballs on it.  I use it all the time.  But I haven’t spent a dime.  I don’t see any advertisements on it, either.

How does that business model work over the long term?

Money Leaving Bonds for Stocks

Money is leaving bonds and buying stocks.  Not a huge surprise, and this is helping to fuel the stock market advance.  Still, I think this is just part of the late-stage kind of thing that happens in bull markets.  This doesn't mean the stock market rally is over, but just another sign that we're not at the beginning of the bull market.

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U.S.-based bond funds have $8.1 billion outflow in latest week: ICI

Sam Forgione

Reuters - Reuters - ‎Tuesday‎, ‎December‎ ‎24‎, ‎2013

NEW YORK - Investors in U.S.-based mutual funds pulled $8.1 billion out of bond funds in the week en...

If you have Windows 8, open this in Finance.

http://www.bing.com/r/1E/IQUBV?a=0&m=en-us

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‎McDonald's Removes Workers Website‎

Interesting news on $MCD - McDonald's today about low pay and this website called "McResource."

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McDonald's Removes Workers Website

Julie Jargon

The Wall Street Journal. - The Wall Street Journal. - ‎Thursday‎, ‎December‎ ‎26‎, ‎2013

McDonald's Corp. has pulled the plug on its "McResource" website, which has been a target of a group...

If you have Windows 8, open this in Finance.

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‎Jobless Claims in U.S.

More good economic news about jobs - or at least the lack of folks losing their jobs.  Politicians will spin the data every which way, but this is overall good news for the country.  We should all want the country to improve and for people to have the opportunity to move ahead.

No matter how we feel about the party in the White House or Congress.

This is good news.

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Jobless Claims in U.S. Decreased More Than Forecast Last Week

Shobhana Chandra

Bloomberg - Bloomberg - Thu Dec 26 13:45:00 UTC 2013

Fewer Americans than projected filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, indicating th...

If you have Windows 8, open this in Finance.

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Merry Christmas!

I want to wish all of you a very Merry Christmas. Thank you for reading and listening!

Fed's Portfolio Tops $4 Trillion for First Time

Hey! Look at all that money on the Fed's balance sheet! BOOYAH!

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Fed's Portfolio Tops $4 Trillion for First Time

Victoria McGrane

The Wall Street Journal. - The Wall Street Journal. - Fri Dec 20 03:19:46 UTC 2013

The Federal Reserve's holdings of bonds and other assets topped $4 trillion for the first time, a milestone that underscores questions about the efficacy of the central bank's easy-money programs. The Fed's portfolio—including Treasurys, mortgage-backed securities, loans, coins, buildings and other assets—totaled slightly more than $4 trillion as of Dec. 18, up from less than $900 billion before the crisis. A major propellant of this increase has ...

If you have Windows 8, open this in The Wall Street Journal.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304773104579268592155180848.html?mod=rss_front_total_headlines?a=1&m=en-us

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U.S. Existing Home Sales Down 4.3%

Many think that the Fed has been causing asset inflation with the QE stimulus program that has kept rates down and inflated asset prices.  But the long term rates have actually moved up year over year and that is starting to show up in the numbers.  Folks who are used to rock bottom rates are hesitating now that the 30-yr. Mortgage is moving up.

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U.S. Existing Home Sales Down 4.3%

Jeffrey Sparshott

The Wall Street Journal. - The Wall Street Journal. - ‎Thursday‎, ‎December‎ ‎19‎, ‎2013

Sales of previously owned homes slipped to the lowest level in nearly a year in November, signaling that higher mortgage rates are making buyers wary.

If you have Windows 8, open this in The Wall Street Journal.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304367204579268124250009260.html?mod=rss_whats_news?a=1&m=en-us

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‎McDonald's 10 Million Pounds Of Mighty Wings‎‎

They're like "Chicken McNuggets with bones.". $MCD - McDonald's trying to get rid of 10 million pounds of chicken wings, called Mighty Wings.   I think the price point was a little high for the Mighty Wings compared to other things on the menu.  People are at McDonald's for value, and if these were priced at Buffalo Wild Wings prices, why not just go to Buffalo Wild Wings?

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McDonald's Has To Get Rid Of 10 Million Pounds Of Mighty Wings

By Ashley Lutz

Business Insider - Business Insider - Thu Dec 19 16:30:00 UTC 2013

McDonald's has 10 million pounds of Mighty Wings it needs to sell soon. The wings, which repres...

If you have Windows 8, open this in Finance.

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‎Fed Scales Back Stimulus Campaign‎‎

The bottom line is that the stimulus is still chugging along.  The short-term rate is low and there is still $65 billion a month in stimulus.  Let the asset inflation continue…

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Fed Scales Back Stimulus Campaign

BINYAMIN APPELBAUM

The New York Times - The New York Times - Wed Dec 18 19:15:00 UTC 2013

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve said Wednesday that it would reduce its monthly bond-buying campaig...

If you have Windows 8, open this in Finance.

http://www.bing.com/r/1E/GxV3p?a=0&m=en-us

#230: The Fed Tapers and Market Thoughts

listen to ‘#230: The Fed Tapers and Market Thoughts’ on Audioboo

Robust U.S. Recovery Eludes Bernanke

Insert picture of Ben Bernanke as Inspector Cousteau trying to find the Pink Panther - er, economic recovery. Think Pink!  My guess is that the $85B of monthly stimulus isn't reaching Main Street.  We're seeing moves in the stock market and real estate, but something else seems to be hindering economic growth - and specifically, wage growth.

IMHO, of course.

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Robust U.S. Recovery Eludes Fed Chairman

Jon Hilsenrath

The Wall Street Journal. - The Wall Street Journal. - ‎Wednesday‎, ‎December‎ ‎18‎, ‎2013

After facing a financial crisis he didn't see coming, Ben Bernanke helped the U.S. avert a devastating panic but hasn't been able to engineer a robust recovery, even with extraordinary measures.

If you have Windows 8, open this in The Wall Street Journal.

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U.S. Home Building Hits Highest Level in Nearly 6 Years

US home building is up.  So, more evidence of an improving economy?  Asset bubble from the Fed QE?

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U.S. Home Building Hits Highest Level in Nearly 6 Years

Jonathan House

The Wall Street Journal. - The Wall Street Journal. - ‎Wednesday‎, ‎December‎ ‎18‎, ‎2013

U.S. housing starts rose 22.7% from October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,091,000 in November, the highest level in nearly six years, in the latest sign of renewed momentum in the sector's recovery.

If you have Windows 8, open this in The Wall Street Journal.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304866904579265963142745166.html?mod=rss_front_total_headlines?a=1&m=en-us

Sent from Surface Pro

Quick Market Thoughts

• We are all awaiting for the wise words of the Fed’s Ben Bernanke tomorrow.  Will the Fed taper or not?  They won’t.  You think that would be Bernanke’s swan song?  It would send the market down.  He doesn’t want to ruin the holidays for anyone!
• Will Yellen taper next year?  Eh.  Hard to say but maybe.  I would think she’d be more QE friendly than Bernanke.
• Yes, the market is overbought.  But that doesn’t mean it can’t get more overbought.  As we head into the holiday weeks, it is hard to imagine a scenario where 2013’s winning stocks get sold off.  If anything, it seems that they’d be bought up more to make sure they’re on everyone’s year-end statements.
• Stocks that are down for the year may see some tax loss selling and not much buying.
• My guess is that the market remains strong, or at least doesn’t go down, until year end.  Hopefully the January effect works next year and the market starts off 2014 strong.
• I remain in cash, looking for a correction that never comes!  I have traded a little bit, but nothing significant.  I may try and buy dips or pullbacks from now until year end.  We shall see.

Tuesday Randomosity and Market Thoughts

• Stock market was down. Again. Will it ever go up again?  I’m in cash for some bizarre reason, but don’t think the market ends up lower at year end than it is now.  In other words, it should keep going up until the quarter and year end, uh, ends.
• Is there too little fear in the market?  Seems like the bulls are all over the place, but so are the folks who remember the last two bear markets in stocks, and another one in real estate.
• Mastercard is going to split 10-1 and hike the dividend.  Remember in the late 90’s how those kinds of things would cause a stock to rally?  Er, might want to get a quote check!
• Watching the Lakers host the Suns tonight, and Kobe really looks kind of slow out there.  Probably takes a while to get used to the NBA pace – right?
• Well, Sacramento has had a hard freeze warning now for – all week.  Looks like it is finally going to warm up a smidge.
• Global warming.  LOL.
• So the Senate and the House seem to have reached a budget compromise that means more spending now and cuts, er, yeah cuts, sometime down the road.  Sometime.  Later.  Down the road.  We’ll get to it when we get to it.
• YEAH RIGHT.  There will be no spending cuts.
• Anyway, I guess we can understand that the Republicans don’t want to get any bad press now and leave the bad press on the Democrats with the Obamacare roll out thing.
• Ruben Studdard on The Biggest Loser.  LOL.  Where’s that guy been?!?!?!?  He looks thinner. Good for him.
• I still can’t believe it is Christmas time again already.  Blink and you’ll miss it!
• So bottom line is that the year end should be nice for the market.  Look at the rallies in the social media stocks.  Again, reminds me of B2B everything in 1999-2000.  Just saying.  No worries just yet, but… you know.

AAPL - It's Going to be a Very Apple Christmas

I think the Apple iPad Air and Mini are going to be hot Christmas gifts.  Talking with a few trendy friends, they are gifting a bunch of iPads this year. 

Just saying. File under Peter Lynch buy what you know.

No positions. 

NFL Snowball and Stock Market Thoughts

• The stock market started to roll over last week, but then Friday happened and the market ended up relatively flat.
• Reason du jour?  The jobs report was good and the unemployment rate is now down to 7%.  Of course, there are fewer folks in the work force and all.  But nobody seems to pay attention to that. 
• Snow storms all across NFL Sunday.  I can’t recall a Sunday like this before.  The games in Philadelphia and Baltimore are just nuts!
• Remember when good news was bad news?  Why?  Well, good news means that the Fed may start tapering the $85B per month stimulus.
• The rally-into-year-end theme still seems in tact. 
• Remember when the Green Bay Packers used to win home games?  Down to the Atlanta Falcons as I type.  Plenty of time left…

Thanksgiving Randomosity

• Happy Thanksgiving!
• The stock market is giving us a lot of reasons to be giving thanks.  This has been an amazing year to be long domestic equities.  While I am still in cash, I am happy that the economy seems to be chugging along despite much of the naysayers.  I hope the uptrend continues.
• It is hard to imagine a scenario where the stock market begins a correction in December.  The market has been moving up.  There aren’t that many losers to sell for tax reasons.  And fund managers will want to make sure the big winning stocks show up on that year-end report.  Just thinking out loud. 
• Thanksgiving is almost over as I type, and the malls here in Sac are already packed.  Many of the stores are opening on Thursday these days.  Crazy.
• Football games were okay today.  Especially the night game.
• Jason Kidd intentionally spilling a drink on the floor …  $50,000 fine.
• So, do I have to put up Christmas lights tomorrow?

Tuesday 4000 Randomosity

• The Nasdaq first crossed 4000 was 1999. Back then, @MariaBartiromo was still at CNBC.
• So that was quite a dump in the last few minutes today.  There is this saying that the market rallies during Thanksgiving week and usually the Friday after Thanksgiving.  I wonder how much of that is pre-baked into the cake these days to make it worthless!
• Pope Francis attacks global capitalism.  “Just as the commandment ‘Thou shalt not kill’ sets a clear limit in order to safeguard the value of human life, today we also have to say ‘thou shalt not’ to an economy of exclusion and inequality.” I think capitalism creates wealth and allows folks to be charitable – as Americans are.  We could all do better, but the heavy hand of government is not the answer.
• Paraphrasing somebody, “Capitalism is the worse economic system in the world, except for all the other systems that have been tried out.”
• So is the market still in the secular bear market that started in 2000?  Or is this a new secular bull market?  I lean to the former, but it sure feels good right now.
• Is Miley Cyrus really going to be the number one phenom of 2013?  Lets give that honor to those guys from Holland who created the “What does the fox say?” YouTube video, that inspired parody after parody after parody.
• Still loving the Microsoft Surface Pro 2.
• When is Kobe Bryant suiting up?  The dude is practicing, right?
• Paraphrasing somebody, “Practice?  We talking about practice?” 

Monday Night Randomosity

• The market looked fairly flat, but look at F and TWTR (Facebook and Twitter).  Yuck. 
• The Redskins are playing some pretty bad football. So are the Texans.
• I’m still in cash.  I keep thinking that the higher the market goes without a correction, the worse the actual correction will be.  When it comes.
• By the way, the Nasdaq did edge above 4000 today.  The link is to a column from Mark Hulbert (so you know it must be true) about when the market first traded above 4000.  Back in 1999.
• You remember 1999: Back then Maria Bartiromo was on CNBC!
• So, a deal with Iran, eh? Color me a contrarian on that one, too.  I’d rather stay closer to Israel than Iran.  I don’t trust Iran further than I could throw ‘em.
• The best of Black Friday freebies!  I love shopping online, by the way.  I bought tons of stuff last Black Friday.
• Kim Kardashian.  Er, so, she is always in the news for something.  Can’t avoid it.  But why do we care so much?
• Dancing with the Stars finale?  Where has the time gone?

And the Beat Goes on

• The market shrugged off the last few ugly days to make a new move up.  It was a nice day to be long.  It is as if the market just can’t go down for very long anymore.
• I’m still in cash.  LOL.  It hurts so good.  I’d rather miss a move than be leaning the wrong direction.  But I still have a feeling that what comes next won’t be fun.  But from what levels and how much higher will the market go?  It could ramp up as tired bears give up.
• Health pricing causes sticker shock.  Ya think?  “Sweeping differences in health care exchange pricing among states and counties is leading to sticker shock for some middle class consumers…”  The unfortunate thing is that the sticker shock is hitting the middle class.  But it is probably a fantastic deal for the poor.  The rich don’t care.
• Contrarian alert! In California, state analyst projects years of budget surpluses. “…California is poised for years of multibillion dollar surpluses.”  So, be afraid.  Be very afraid.
• Nike is expanding their dividend by 14%.  I don’t own any shares.  Or sneakers – they hurt my feet. 
• Maybe it’s the upcoming holiday or the cooler (and wetter) weather, but I feel like hunkering down and watching movies.  You?
• I know I said I was going to blog more and get back to audioboos and podcasts, but… Well, I’m blogging.  So…
• I’m tired of fantasy football, but I keep playing year after year.  Drew Brees didn’t do much after the first half.  C’mon.

Stock Market Thoughts

Regarding the bull market, we are either near the beginning, near the end, or somewhere in the middle. We’re obviously not near the beginning as that was in March 2009.  So we’re either somewhere in the middle or near the end.

It sounds kind of obvious, right?

But think of the bull market as approaching five years old.  We’re seeing a long period of near 0% interest rates, in an economy that supposedly can’t fail with the Fed QE program.  We’re seeing lots of IPOs and high valuations on social media companies that lose money.  We’re also now seeing money flowing into stock mutual funds.

Granted, we are nearing the end of  2013 and it is likely that the market rallies into the end of the year.  I would imagine pullbacks are still buyable, if they show up.

Economic data is okay, but not great.  This week should see some more mediocre economic news…

Just thinking out loud as I watch the Broncos up over the Chiefs.

Obama and Yellen Randomosity

• Today we had the two most powerful people in the world speak:  Janet Yellen and Barack Obama.  In that order.  Neither pictured, by the way.  Oh, I realize Bernanke is still officially the most powerful person.  But isn’t he a lame duck Fed chairman?
• Yellen basically said, and I’m paraphrasing, that she was going to make it rain money because unemployment is too high and growth isn’t as high as we’d like to see it.  All the time, of course, the Fed was keeping an eye out for problems.
• (And once the problems occur, add in a year or so later, the Fed will actually realize what the problems were).
• The stock market seemed to like this.  After all, all that money has to go somewhere and it may as well buy shares of TWTR.  Which was up today, by the way.
• Emerging markets really liked this.  After all, if the Fed is inflating the dollar’s value away, this is good for foreign denominated assets, right?
• Meanwhile, President Obama spoke about how unaffordable the Affordable Care Act, er Obamacare, was and that if you want your old insurance plan back, you can have your old insurance plan back.  For a year.  Assuming the insurance company will follow Obama’s directive.  And then have to reissue cancellation notices next year.  Postmarked after the 2014 election, right?
• I remain in cash.  On the sidelines.  Watching and waiting.  Sitting on my hands.  Watching the grass grow.  Not that kind of grass.
• So that’s what TV was like today.
• I thought Yellen answered the questions well, without actually answering the questions.  That’s the third mandate of the Fed. 
• I thought Obama looked beaten up a little.  I’m not sure if he solved anything today.  I think he just made it more complicated.  But, that’s the nature of government programs.

Another Great Market Day

• When the Nasdaq leads the way up and the overall market makes a new high, it’s a good day. Stocks had the chance to fall lower, but a late day rally turned things around and shows that there is still a bull bias.
• Heck, it’s hard to imagine the stock market heading down by year’s end. My gut feeling is that the market is higher by year end than it is now.   What a bold call!  (LOL).  With that said, I’m still in cash.
• Obamacare enrollment worse than initial estimate.  Shocker.  Well, I think a  lot of of folks procrastinate. In addition, there has been a lot of negative stories about the website.  But you know what they say about government estimates…
• Janet Yellen to defend Fed’s QE program.  Ya think?  Another shocker!  She “defended the central bank’s unconventional asset purchase program, calling it the best way to get the economy back to normal.”  Heck, I guess it’s been the “best way” since 2009!  One of these days, maybe it will even work!
• The Philippines. –> The Red Cross.  Just saying.
• Well, what do THEY say about government estimates?  I think the reality is that they’re just not very accurate.  They seem to paint whatever picture they need to paint in order to sell whatever the estimate is related to.
• Seriously – I think the main thing QE has done is inflate asset prices.  Like the stock market.  For example  Just saying.  IMHO.  Just my 2-cents.
• I always think it’s too early to start playing Christmas music.  I was just wearing shorts, for goodness sakes.  It’s still over 70 degrees here!  (Barely).
• After 320 games, the Lakers sellout streak ends.  What?  Steve Blake isn’t packing in the crowds?
• Maybe Yellen was the reason for the market turnaround today.  Mo’money.
• Sacramento Kings are leading the Brooklyn Nets by 12 at the half.
• I do like the Surface Pro 2.  I know I’ve said that before, but I’m saying it again.  I do wish I could resize the apps in the desktop view, though.  Pinch-zoom don’t work here!

Tuesday Stock Market Randomosity

• Bull markets don’t last forever. This one started in March, 2009. 
• Even with investor sentiment high and stock mutual funds seeing inflows, it seems as if folks are still smarting from the bear markets of the last decade.  Two in the stock market and one in the real estate market.  Who can blame them?
• In addition, the Fed keeps printing money and incoming Fed Chair Janet Yellen will probably continue the policy if not increase it.  Don’t fight the FED?!??!??!?
• Anyway, I’ve heard and read a lot of reasons to be bullish and a lot of reasons to expect a correction or worse.  I’m thinking correction and hoping not worse.  But that correction has yet to materialize as each dip is bought.
• I think I’m repeating myself a lot these days – months – when I give my reasons to be a little concerned.  So instead of rehashing it blog post after blog post, I am just going to mention that I am still in cash, and if anything changes I will blog about it.  I think that is what has held back the blogging and podcasting or audioboos lately.  Lather rinse and repeat!
• So back to randomosity and other such things.  Along with market comments!
• I picked the Tampa Bay Bucs in my weekly football pool, and thought I was some sort of Wile E. Coyote Evil Genius.  But I also had Indianapolis winning at home against the Rams.  What an idiot!  And the 49ers at home over the Panthers!  MORON!
• Duke up by one over Kansas as I type.  March Madness is coming. LOL.
• No, not buying shares of TWTR.  The Twitter.  Maybe down the road.  But that business model doesn’t make sense to me just yet.  And I’d like to see some of the insiders unload their shares before I wade in.
• Obamacare fiasco continues.  You just have to think something’s gotta give, right?  The cancellation notices and more expensive policies are hitting the middle class. 
• Still loving the Surface Pro 2.  I’ve seen a few of them out and about in my trips to SBUX – Starbucks.  I’ve also seen a lot of iPad minis, but not much else other than smart phones.

Friday Night Randomosity!

• Yesterday is history! The stock market resumed going up today on … er, reason du jour? Jobs report?  It was a little mixed, right? I mean maybe the news is such that it confirms the suspicion that the Fed will continue QE indefinitely.  Forever and ever, Amen.  Bank stocks were strong, which is a good sign.
• Yeah, I’m still in cash.  The Dow is at record highs and the SP500 is darn close.  The pickup in blogging activity is not a sign that I’m getting excited about stocks here.  Nor am I here to talk them down and pretend I’m smarter than the market.  It is what it is.  I will probably dollar cost average back in absent a correction (that never seems to come).  Waiting for a correction is like waiting for the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown.
• Listening to MetroRadio app (that’s a third party Pandora app) on the Surface Pro 2.  There.  I said it.  Hey it’s either that or porn I guess.  Or Bill O’Reilly, which is Conservative porn.
• Twitter, TWTR, fell over 7% on its second day of trading.  Now at $41.64.  Nobody making any money in it, yet.  I’ve stayed away.  I think both TWTR and F, Facebook, intrigue as long term buy and holds at some price point lower than here.  Perhaps after the Great Correction that never seems to come.  But when you think about it, some of these IPO stocks of this bull market will be the stocks we wish we would have owned 10 years from now.  Right?
• Tesla, TSLA, down about 22% the last 3 trading days.  Yikes.  It happens fast, huh?
• Friday night and it’s Going Out Night.  Casino? 
• Hey, I will resume Audioboos aka podcasts soon.  My broken feet are much improved over a few months ago, but still in the healing process. 
• President Obama’s job approval down to 41%.  53% disapprove, while the remaining 6% don’t have a clue!  Obama really gets slammed on the handling of the economy, where 31% approve of the way he is handling the economy.
• How come Geraldo didn’t go to the Philippines to broadcast LIVE the Super Typhoon Haiyan?
• Love the NFL.  Haven’t been able to watch much NBA just yet. My Lakers look sad, but at least they beat Dwight Howard and his Houston Rockets last night.  I didn’t watch, but have enjoyed reading the news articles today and on the TWTR!

Nasdaq Down 2%; TWTR up 70%

Today’s headline: Nasdaq down 2%; $TWTR up 70%. Quite the open for Twitter, where the price was driven up even before the stock was open for trade.  Jim Cramer and those on CNBC warned of excessive valuation and “what happens next,” and yes the IPO did close lower from where it opened.

#whatsnextfortwtr?

I didn’t buy any or watch it much after it started trading.  Meanwhile, the market was pounded into the ground like nothing we’ve seen since the Miami Dolphins bullying scandal. 

More later!

Dow Rally Randomosity

• When the Dow is up (big), and the Nasdaq is weak… hmm.  Basically, it generally means that the Big Boys are avoiding risk and going into the highly liquid stocks.  Companies that sell toothpaste, soap, soda, and toilet paper.
• Twitter priced at $26.  How much will it go up initially?  How much will it fall after the initial high?  Hmmm.
• Blockbuster shut down it’s last 300 stores.  Remember the old days of actually going to a video store to rent a video?  Caveman days!
• Whole Foods reported okay earnings but guided lower.  Oops.  Stock went down after hours.
• Disney tomorrow.  These days that company is so much more than theme parks.  They have movies, TV, sports…
• Anyway, still in cash and I’m thinking that the market is looking a little suspect here.  We.  Shall.  See.  Risk on or risk off?

Tuesday Night Randomosity

• Just what the heck happened with the Emerging Markets - $EEM today?  I guess we could blame the rising dollar.  There are fears (again) that the Fed (gee, amazing) may respond to the better-than-expected economic data by “tapering” the QE.  Yes, we’ve been hearing and worrying about off and on for… years?
• Anyway, $EEM sold off today and looks like the Asian markets are getting hit on Their Wednesday as I type.
• So, Aaron Rodgers has a fractured collar bone.  OUCH.  That can’t be comfortable.  The good news is that it’s not on his throwing arm side.   But still.  Ouch.
• I’m still in cash.  Cash!!!  The stock market really didn’t do much today.
• Toronto Mayor, Rob Ford, admitted that he smoked crack.  But, well, it was during one of his drunken stupors.   Yeah, I guess that makes it okay.  Who’s more trustworthy than a mayor who goes into drunken stupors and smokes crack?  It’s not like he lied about you being able to keep your health plan, if you like your health plan.
• So, uh, $TSLA – Tesla dropped 12% after hours on their numbers.  They say because deliveries fell short.
• Dwight Howard was jeered at a Los Angeles CLIPPERS game.  I am not sure what that means.  Exactly.

A Contrarian Play … Twitter?

I don’t want to jinx it, but is the $TWTR – Twitter IPO a contrarian play?

Hmm.  I’m not planning on buying any on Thursday, the projected IPO date.  But do columns like these and the fears of a $FB – Facebook repeat – and me being worried – signal that maybe we should buy as much TWTR as possible?

Hmm.

Monday Night Football Randomosity

• The market was … up!  Why not?  After all, it is the beginning of the month strength period.  Still.  It’s not like we’re done with the Halloween candy, yet.  Right?
• Hey you want to know how to time the market?  Here it is.  “Yes, most people who try to tuime the market end up screwing it up – they buy and sell at the wrong times…”  So, the answer is, buy and sell at the right times.  Got it?  You’re welcome!
• So, when steel stocks move up, does that mean we’re near the end of the bull market run?  Well, does it?
• Monday Night Football with your Packers QB Wallace taking on your Bears QB McCown.  It’s why we’re watching, right?  But not a bad game.  I’d think this game would be a route were everyone healthy.  Packers at home have been hard to beat.
• SNL parody of “What does the fox say?” is worth a view.
• Warren Buffett says he won’t by Twitter.  Er, TWTR.  Maybe that’s a reason to buy.  That way you’re in BEFORE Buffett.  Right?  Just thinking out loud.  It’s not like I have a market order to buy in, either.
• So, one thing I really like about the Microsoft Surface Pro 2 is the ability to split the screen.  It’s like really multitasking at the same time, right in front of your eyes!  I find myself using this a whole lot, with a twitter or email feed in a window, and work in the other.  Or a browser or my blog in the other.  You get the idea.
• Yes!  I’m still in cash!  What?  Now that we’re in the favorable season?
• Back to the game.  It’s the fourth quarter and the Bears are going in for the kill.  Amazing.

On Any Given Sunday Randomosity

• Stock market looks like it is going to take a breather, but that’s not the first time I’ve thought that this year, right? I’m still in cash…
• Puerto Rican debt a threat to global banks?  Really?  Puerto Rico?
• So, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are winless, are in Seattle, and are winning. Right?  I guess that proves you have to play every down to win.
• There has been a lot of news coverage about Obamacare this past week.  People are arguing about the grandfathering in clause for older policies, but the reality is that millions are seeing their current policies cancelled and are being required to purchase new policies that are often times much more expensive than the policy that is being cancelled.  No matter what you call it or who you blame, this doesn’t look good or sell well.
• Windy here today in Sacramento.  And you know what that means in November?  I have to sweep lots of leaves out of the pool.  Again and again.  Over and over.  Lather. Rinse. Repeat.
• Here come the Seahawks…

Twitter IPO Week!

No election this November, but you can vote on $TWTR stock as Twitter IPOs this week. Everyone is comparing this IPO to $FB (Facebook) in 2012.  The FB IPO was botched with delays and pricing problems.  Yet, FB is now well above the IPO price of 2012, after shakily visiting the teens.

So what will happen with Twitter?  Should people dive in on IPO day?

I did on FB; but, I will not on TWTR.  Maybe later…  I’m still worried about a correction or pullback in stock prices, which would hit the high flyers especially hard.  And it looks as if this will be a high flyer, as the market has had a great year and folks “want in” and/or are trying to play catch  up with their 2013 performance numbers.

My thoughts, anyway…

Microsoft Surface Pro 2 Won’t Power On

For those with a Microsoft Surface Pro 2 where it won’t power on, try holding the volume up and then press down on power for about 10 seconds or so, then release power and then release volume up, and then press power on again.

Problem solved.

Just a quick solution.  It just happened to me and I was trying everything to unbrick the thing.  Anyway, it’s not like I haven’t had to hard reset the iPad or Nexus before, either.  And now that I know how… eh, it’s part of the user experience.  LOL

Is Facebook a Dying Breed? And Twitter?

Are Facebook and Twitter dying breeds?  $FB  $TWTR 

There has been a few stories in the news lately about how teens are abandoning Facebook.  I think it was CNBC that interviewed a 13 year old girl who said she only checked Facebook when she was bored and that none of her friends used FB, but instead used this, that and the other social networking sites.  The linked to article and video wonder if Facebook may face the same fate as MySpace.  Remember that site?  It used to be all the rage!

I think Facebook is entrenched as the social site to use.  It has time and members, and we’re all familiar with the interfaces.  It’s just the online social standard at this point.  A new site has to build up usability and users.  And that’s difficult to do when they have to compete with Facebook, that has 728 million daily users.

Heck, this blog gets a few hundred hits a day and the audioboos/podcasts get 25 to over 1000 listens, based on topic.

Likewise, I think Twitter is the defacto newsfeed standard.  Whenever something is going on live, we turn to Twitter for instant news.  How that gets monetized will be the question.

TGIF Randomosity

• The market is fading the opening bounce as I type.
• The better economic news again could bring fears about the ending or tapering of the FED QE stimulus.  Funny, good economic news bad for the stock market?  Really?
• FED officials divided over taper. Well Charles Plosser anyway.  He basically told CNBC that the central bank missed an opportunity to reduce the stimulus.  Uh oh.
• Looking for a dating site that screens out the losers?  $5,000.  Yah.
• Lost my digital pen for my less-than-a-week old Microsoft Surface Pro 2 already.  On to Best Buy.  Or the MSFT store.   I dunno. 
• Reading around the sports blogs about the Dolphins win in OT via the safety.  NICE.
• I’ve never watched Duck Dynasty.
• It is funny that the “media” seems to think we’re late in the bull market, too.  Like this one:  How bad will new investors get hit?  “Mom-and-pop investors tend to be late to the party.
  ”  I mean, if everyone sees it coming will it really happen?
• At Starbucks on the Surface Pro 2. Somebody across from me has one, too.  Just saying.  MSFT may have a hit on their hands.
• Why I have never bought SBUX stock, I don’t know why.  In the Peter Lynch “Buy what you know” realm, this would qualify.  It’s packed.  It’s always packed here!
• Leftover Halloween candy is the devil.

Change in Investor Mood?

• Well.  The newest iPad Air goes on sale… Well, it probably already is depending on your time zone.  Sure, it’s lighter and the components are fresher.  But does it do much more than the last two iPads did, or are?
• So, stocks had an interesting last hour.  As in whooosh down.  The market has had a great run so far this year.  And this month.  It is interesting as we enter as what should be the monthly strength period where 401k additions automatically hit mutual funds.
• Financials…. Yuck.  It is hard for the market to rally without the financials.  And they can lead down, too.
• I am still in cash.  The market looks like it wants to take a breather here.  I’m always worried about that after a strong summer.  That should be the weak period, right?
• So that’s why I was less interested in the latest iteration of the iPad, and more interested in the Microsoft Surface Pro 2.  It lets me do work things, too.
• Yes, the Obamacare website has been a bit of a disaster.  It is sad.  We shouldn’t cheer for a failure and should hope that everything works out for the best.  But it is off to a bad start.  And you have to wonder how the costs for Obamacare will really go.  My guess is that the costs are seriously underestimated.  We. Shall. See.
• Nice win by the Red Sox.  Congrats on the World Series.
• Not that I’m complaining about the iPad.  It’s a great tablet.  As are the Android tablets.  They all work well.  As does the Surface Pro 2.  The big difference is the price tags.  And capability.  The Android and iPad tablets compete amongst themselves. But is there a large enough market for the Surface Pro 2?  It’s pricey.  And if you don’t want to do work things, then why not just go stand in line at the Apple store tomorrow, er, today?
• Miami Dolphins win in overtime via a safety.  Really.  I picked the Dolphins straight up and was worried that they were going to fold in the 2nd half as usual.  And they did, but recovered.

Quick Stock Thoughts

I’m still in cash.  Just wanted to do an update since I’ve been absent lately.  I will get more into this soon.  Been crazy at work and still mending from broken feet.

So, I keep waiting for a market correction that doesn’t come.  Every pullback has been mild.  Yet, I’ve been around awhile and I don’t feel excited about putting money to work when the market is at or near all time highs in over a 4 year bull market run.  Especially without a major pullback anytime recently.

My plan is to wait for a pullback – but, if that doesn’t come soon, I will begin to dollar cost average in and then buy more on a pullback.

Maybe the Fed scared the market today.  Maybe some of the earnings scared the market.  Maybe nobody cares because there just isn’t any other place you can put money to work and make any kind of return.  Plus, maybe that Fed asset purchase program, aka QE, goes on for years and years and the prices of investment kind of things (stocks, land…) continues to appreciate.

Be back soon…

 

***

Anyway, I’m tying this on my new Microsoft Surface Pro 2 tablet.  I really like it.  This is the Windows Live Writer program, which isn’t a Windows 8.1 program per se, but runs fine.  Or seems to. 

Sunday Night Market Thoughts

• My portfolio is still in cash as the market (er, SP500) makes new highs.  That's a great feeling, right? 
• So I've ignored the last few trips the market has made to the 50dma.  
• I don't yet have a strategy to dollar cost averaging back into the market or going all in.  Still thinking about it.  Probably dollar cost average in if we don't have some sort of pullback soon, and if in the process of doing that we get a correction, go all in.  Just thinking out loud... 
• The black box has been okay on the little moves lately, but haven't been following it.  LOL.  I know - then what's the use!?!?!
• One thing I am looking forward to this week is the Apple news on new iPads.  I'm debating between a new iPad or to go the Windows Surface Pro route.  I have an iPad - I'm doing this entry using the BlogTouch app.  So maybe leading to a Windows tablet.  I dunno.  Or neither.  LOL.  I don't actually need one, it's just the NEW TOY thing.
• My feet?  Thanks for asking.  Still sore but improving oh-so-slowly from week to week.  
• My fantasy football teams are good, but I'm near last place. Why?  I keep playing the top scoring team of the week.  So even if I'm scoring a lot, I keep playing the guy who is scoring MORE.  Good grief.  
• The government is going to release the economic data that it held hostage during the government shut down.  That could be market moving.  I don't think things are that well.  I guess it doesn't matter as long as the Fed is inflating asset prices by printin' money.
• Any commercial that plays the Best Friend theme song from the Courtship of Eddie's Father always gets me to watch.  And then I sing the tune non-stop for the rest of the day.  Can't get it out of my head!
• Anyway, October is flying buy.

The Budget Nonsense

The budget: Such a sham. All these dire warnings and grandstanding. Hours of TV programming had been spent debating the debt.  Rivers of digital ink spilled writing about the tea party, Obama, congress, and the like.  140 character Tweets nonstop about the budget. 

Then the last day before the default they make a deal. It's like a bad script for a movie.  So predictable.  What a bunch of nonsense.

Did anyone really think they wouldn't make a last minute deal to save the day?

Market Thoughts, Janet Yellen, and the Fox Business Channel

• Just a quick update: Yes, I'm still in cash.  Market seasonality says that it's time to buy stocks somewhere around this time period.  So, I'm watching and glad to see a little pull back in the market.  The market seemingly rallied on news that there would be some sort of partial debt ceiling deal and the news that Janet Yellen would be nominated as the new Fed Chair, replacing Ben Bernanke.  Anyway, the market did pull back and the 50dma seemed to be support for the major indexes.  Or thereabouts.  One troubling sign is that tech stocs (Nasdaq) is lagging - and that's not normal for a rally.  
• Yes, Janet Yellen.  Well, she will be the most powerful person in the world in short order.  She seems popular with Wall Street and her past comments make it appear as if the easy money policy will continue, if not amp up even further. f
• So, Fox Business is supposed to compete with CNBC, right?  It seems as if it is trying to compete with the Fox News Channel.  Aren't the topics on the Fox Business shows roughly the same as those on Fox News?  

#229: Janet Yellen, Debt Ceiling, and Market Thoughts

listen to ‘#229: Janet Yellen, Debt Ceiling, and Market Thoughts’ on Audioboo

Market Thoughts

The market continues to advance as we wait for news from Ben Bernanke on what the heck is going to happen with the QE program.  

My guess is that there is very little if any change at all.  The economic numbers haven't been that great.  My fear is that all the QE has inflated real estate and stock prices more than it has helped most Americans.  (Except for those of us who own homes and stocks, right?)

Anyway, it's past mid-September and I'm still in cash.  Sell in May and miss the Summer rally!

Gasoline Prices

Gasoline has been over $3 a gallon for 1000 days.  That used to be a big deal, as the more money spent at the gas station means less money spent at the malls and restaurants.  I think we've gotten used to it.  We've changed our spending habits or our salaries have increased enough that we're numb to prices at these levels.  I think it would take a push to $5 a gallon before folks felt it and had to cut back.

AAPL - Apple Stock and Event Dates

It's amazing to watch AAPL - Apple stock whenever the company has a big news event.  Whether it is an earnings report or a product announcement, the stock seems to move in the opposite direction of the recent trend.  

I didn't fact check this, but doesn't it seem like if the stock has been moving up, the stock is sold off after the big event?   That's what happened this week after the iPhone 5S and 5C news. 

I think the new iPhones are offering some interesting new features that will be popular.  I would expect to see the next version of the new iPad to feature those as well. 

I don't own the stock.  And I do own iPads and iPhones. But I'm also watching for the next version of the Microsoft Surface Pro to see what it will offer. Sept 23 for MSFT news...

Saturday Market Thoughts

• Another Saturday of being invested in cash and watching college football. 
• Bad employment data and previous months revised downward?  No problemo.  Stocks rally because it means the Fed may not taper.
• Or maybe the Fed will taper.
• I think it's a mistake if the US launches a missle barrage on Syria.  No, not because of what Russia's Puten said or England opting out.  No, not because President Obama and John Kerry look like complete idiots everytime they have the opportunity.  But...  Haven't we learned our lesson(s) with wars in the Middle East?  Yes, it is tragic that so many people are dying horrible deaths.  But do we have the ability to stop it?  And lets be blunt, aren't the Western nations better off if the radicals are shooting at each other, rather than at us?
• Or maybe the Fed won't taper.
• So, the stock market seemed to gyrate on whatever Syria news hit the tape yesterday.  Up and down.  Down and up.  Plus the labor news, where the unemployment rate is falling, but the labor participation percentage is falling.
• Emerging markets doing well, huh?
• Or maybe the Fed will taper.
• I remain in cash.  I anticipate a buy decision is coming at some point within a month or two, though.  The sell in May thing doesn't last forever.  
• Watching the moving averages and black box.  Not doing anything yet.
• OK... Notre Dame at Michigan...

Blame it on Syria and Microsoft and September

Blame today's market fade on Syria and $MSFT - Microsoft.  At least that's what the headlines say.  The market gapped up but then sold down as Congress indicated they will back Obama's call for military action in Iraq.  Oh, and then there's the Microsoft and Nokia deal.

Plus it's September.  The finance channels wasted no time telling us that September is historically a bad month for the stock market.

Anyway, I'm still sitting in cash.  I wonder if any military action would actually cause the market to go up?  Sell the rumor - buy the news?  Just thinking out loud!

***

Closing Bell: Syria Fears and Iffy Mergers Keep Gains in Check
DAILYFINANCE.COM | SEPTEMBER 3, 2013
http://pulse.me/s/pVov8


Filed under: Technology, Market News, International Trade, U.S. Government, Telecommunications Spencer Platt, Getty Images An early stock market ral... Read more

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Saturday Randomosity

• I don't think going to war with Syria will have a long-lasting effect on the market. 
• I'm still in cash, and waiting patiently.  
• College football Saturday!  I've been watching a lot of games... since Thursday!  Friday night's North Dakota State win over Kansas State was very fun to watch!
• Not that I'm in favor of going to war with Syria.   Haven't we learned our lesson(s) with wars in the Middle East?
• So, Same-sex couples to get federal tax breaks. Hey, what about the marriage penalty?  Aren't taxes higher when incomes of two wage earners are combined? 
• President Obama said he was going to ask Congress if it was okay to bomb Syria.  Really?  I think he's looking for the do-nothing Congress that opposes him on everything to tell him NO, and that's his out.  Right?  Then, back to working on his golf handicap.
• They say consumer spending tapered off in July as folks held on tight to their wallets. I wonder how rising interest rates and rising gasoline prices are contributing to this.  Oh... and the higher payroll tax, too.
• Sarah Palin said on Syria, "Let Allah sort it out.'"  Agreed!

The Summer Market Correction

Looks like the summer market sell off finally appeared.  There is always some reason du jour.  Is it really Syria?  Is it earnings or economic numbers?  The Fed easing its QE - the taper?

Whatever it is, folks are selling.  And some of the bears are being paraded around on TV with dire forecasts.   

I remain in cash and looking for an entry point probably Sept-Oct time frame. 

Cash is King

I am still in cash and not trading the market or taking long positions. Even though I have been in cash for awhile and have missed the run up from the SP500 1500s to 1700s, I believe that summers can be a little rocky and weak. But that hasn't happened this year just yet.  We shall see. 

Lots of concern about what the Fed will do and when they will do it.  That is almost always the case, but with Quantitative Easing for about $85B a month, this is going to have an pact when they do ease the purchase program. 

Anyway, should be an interesting August and September. Watching and waiting...

#228: Stock Market Correction and Late Game Dodgers Heroics

listen to ‘#228: Stock Market Correction and Late Game Dodgers Heroics’ on Audioboo

Is Everyone Calling for a Stock Crash?

Is everyone calling for a stock crash? It seems like I read that over and over on Twitter and on blogs. Marc Faber, Dr. Doom, is calling for one. How is his track record?

I remain in cash.  For me, a lot of it is market seasonality. We normally get stock market corrections in the summer. Especially, when there has been a stock run up in the spring. It hasn't happened this year, though.  

I haven't been trading stocks this week. I am still home with broken feet, but that ends tomorrow. I am actually going back to work! 

Meanwhile, the Dodgers just keep winning. What an amazing team! What a turnaround from April and May.

#227: Market Thoughts and Dodgers Win Again

listen to ‘#227: Market Thoughts and Dodgers Win Again’ on Audioboo

Thursday Thoughts

Interesting reversal in the market today. Look at the $EMM - Emerging Markets. Whoosh...

Still in cash and sitting on hands.  Don't imagine going back long full time until the Fall.  We shall see.  

I wonder if the selling is over or not.  I think even with the FED QE FOREVER we'd get a correction here and there along the way from here to the moon.  Maybe not.  Sure a strange year.  Folks say this is the most hated bull market ever.  Not sure that's the case.  It's just that it seems that economic data and earnings numbers don't matter as much these days.  Or, maybe it's just that the world wants US stocks and nothing else.

Except $EEM today, that is.  Whoosh.  LOL.

Ah, money market return rates really suck...  bah.

Market Thoughts Randomosity

• So the market seems to be teasing the bears a bit - maybe.  We haven't had much selling lately and any dip has been bought up quickly.  Is this another case where things will just rip higher after a short pause?  That's my guess.  The summer correction just hasn't happened. 
• I'm still in cash, though.  I probably won't do much until the Sept-Oct timeframe somewhere.  
• $IBM selling off.  Kind of curious.  The stock has been trending sideways for awhile above the 200dma.  Consolidating or breaking down...?  Over the long term, they are the big horse in IT mainframes and services, right?
• $XOM selling off because nobody is using fuel anymore I guess.  Same with $CVX.  That is also kind of curious.  You'd think if the economy were expanding, then we'd use more fuel.  But even with the unemployment rate falling the participation rate is falling, and the jobs are part-time jobs.  So just not sure how to piece that puzzle together.  Still think that Big Oil is an okay place to invest For. The. Long. Term.  And these guys will be Big Natural Gas eventually, too - don't you think?
• Feet still broken and sore.  This has been the worst summer evah.  Basically stuck in the house and bored.  Doc told me they'd feel better by September.  I was optimistic it would be sooner, but darn things. 
• I've noticed that the news channels just repeat the same stories over and over, and have the same discussions over and over.  Watching Fox News and Fox Business, and every show is talking minimum wage, your data and privacy, Obamacare, etc.  Same thing, over and over.  
• "Hey Jonathan Hoenig, is raising the minimum wage to $15 a good idea?"

#226: Market Powers Up and Dodgers Keep Winning

listen to ‘#226: Market Powers Up and Dodgers Keep Winning’ on Audioboo

Volatility with the Fed

• I don't know what you do with today's market action.  It was crazy.  Ramped after the Fed announced nothing, and then fell back down.  Good luck.
• Still in cash trying to think of something to do with it.  Probably just stay in cash until the Fall.  I am tempted to daytrade, but ... eh.
• Economic data continues to show a very slow economy.  No other way to put it.  Although folks seem to be talking it up as great news.  What?  Should't things be growing a bit faster?
• Feet are still broken and sore.  Man, over eight weeks so far.  Can't wait until this is over.  Ache ache ache.
• Dodgers having an amazing run.  Dramatic late game wins.  Including last night's game against the Yankees.  
• Did you see Spike Lee on CNBC this morning?  Wow, if I were producer, do you know who is not getting an invitation back?  What a clown.   There was no need to be disrespectful.  
• Do you keep getting folks ringing your doorbell trying to sell you solar panels for your roof top?  What's the payback period, 25 years?  I always tell them I'm moving and putting the house up for sale in a few weeks, rather than argue with them. 

Still in Cash!

I am still in cash, and not putting money to work. This week should see some interesting moves with the federal reserve and economic data. The market seems stuck for the past few weeks, except for the big winning stocks like The Facebook $FB. 

Kudos to Facebook for figuring it out. There was a lot of doubt out there, including from me. But they seem to have figured out a way to monetize the mobile platform.  But, if you're like me, you don't like to see those mobile ads pop up on your iPhone or iPad as you scroll through your timeline! I haven't clicked on one of those yet, LOL. But don't tell that to the advertisers. 

Other than trying a few trades here and there, I am planning on just going back into the market sometime late summer or fall.  

The Greatest Cost-Per-Calorie Bargain Ever?

$MCD - McDonalds:  I thought his was an entertaining article about a $1 burger from McDonalds.  I don't eat there very often, but maybe this will change my mind.  But there can't be a huge profit margin in a dollar burger.  Unless they sell a large drink with it!***
The Blaze - StoriesCould the McDonald's McDouble Actually Be the Greatest Cost-Per-Calorie Bargain Ever?

McDonald's.

Is McDonald's McDouble cheeseburger (two patties, one slice of cheese, costs about $1) the "cheapest, most nutritious and bountiful food that has ever existed in human history"?

...

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2013/07/29/could-the-mcdonalds-mcdouble-actually-be-the-greatest-cost-per-calorie-bargain-ever/

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The Fed, Jobs and Earnings!

Don't sleep in! This week will feature the Federal Reserve, jobs, and more earnings! Nonstop thrills!

The biggest surprise last week came from Facebook, which soared after their earnings report. Apparently, they figured out how to make money.

Apple exceeded iPhone sales estimates, but fell short on iPad sales. Investors still were okay with that news.

Amazon was another surprise, as they continue to lose money. The stock was down after hours, but surprised everyone including me when it rallied the next day.

And then, there was Friday. The Dow was down  big early, but rallied to close in the green. It just shows you that people want to buy stocks. Don't fight the trend. Don't fight the Fed. Don't worry about "the wall of worry. "

Wall of Worry

Hey, the economy isn't so hot and corporate earnings are mediocre. But does any of that matter when folks just want to buy stocks?

More wall of worry stuff here. Maybe someday it will matter.  Maybe not. 

Black Box Sell Signal Right Now

Hey, the Black Box has a sell signal.  Really.  Last sell signal was May 30th.  FWIW.  I’m already in cash so… er… uh…

Apple profit falls

$AAPL - Apple earnings weren't great, but weren't "Applemageddon," so stock rallies in after hours.  iPhones sold well. iPads disappointed.  The sad news is that they have to wait until October for new product release information.

So more of the same from earnings news. Not really that great, but mediocre is okay because Ben is there with QE.

***

Apple profit falls 22% but beats gloomy expectations
CNN MONEY | JULY 23, 2013
http://pulse.me/s/orB27


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Netflix Randomosity

• I've never owned Netflix - $NFLX. Afraid of competition.  Didn't think it would last once the Big Boys got involved. 
• I was wrong.  Netflix is the Big Boy in providing streaming and DVD. 
• And I use Netflix all the time!  
• The stock is selling off today on a disappointing earnings report Monday. 
• Of course, it has been a darling momentum stock and if it does come down it had a ways to go.  
• Not going to buy it.  Last person in the pool worry, you know?
• Still will use it. And I'm currently watching Everybody Loves Raymond.  Lol. 

#225: Market Thoughts - It Goes Up No Matter What

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Would You Like Fries With That?

Is anyone bullish on $MCD - McDonalds earnings prospects Monday?  Seems like all we hear about is how they are struggling with a low profit dollar menu and struggling economies overseas. 

Of course, if they do disappoint it is just an excuse for a rally as the Fed will keep pouring money in so that we can all afford to supersize our value meals. 

Wage Growth in SF Bay Area

I thought this was an interesting story from the SJ Merc about 1% wage growth in the "hot jobs market" that the Bay Area is supposed to be. Why? Well... part time jobs, service sector jobs, etc. Also, maybe the supply of workers is there to meet the demand.

 

Big Tech Randomosity

• Remember when big technology stocks mattered? It was interesting Friday to see Microsoft slide and Google not do well, and the market shrugged it off. Sure the NASDAQ was down. But it used to be the whole market would slide on that kind of news.


• Of course, Google did hold the 50 day moving average.


• Which just goes to show you, don't fight the Fed! Don't fight the trend! People want to buy stocks and that is that. Not just domestic buyers, but I think international money, too.


• I am still in cash. No summer trades for me yet. I still think there is a correction coming, but I have been wrong so far this summer.


• I want my pension! You know, it will be interesting to watch Detroit for what happens to pensions. There are many retirees and workers who have been promised pensions, and the question is how will they be paid?


• Pop Tart ice cream sandwiches. Raise your hand if you want one. *as my hand shoots straight up*


• The Dodgers won, sweeping the Washington Nationals in the three game series. Unbelievable starting pitching, clutch hitting, and great relief from the bullpen. I think this is what we expected all year as Dodgers fans.