Monday, February 23, 2009

Save the Cheerleader, Save the Stock Market?

Save the cheerleader, save the stock market? It's worth a try. The stock market isn't indestructible, it's not like Hayden Panettiere.

The stock market continues its free fall. Now down at 1997 levels. I received an email from a friend that he is delaying his retirement plans. I bet he's not alone. Portfolios are being crushed. Pension plans are no longer sound. Any home equity one hoped to cash in on, is gone. Private companies are shedding workers, and will government workers be the next to go?

If anything can be learned from economics, it is that economic booms are followed by economic busts. The government and Federal Reserve never seem to keep things on an even keel for too long. Things swing in excesses. In the past ten years, we've seen bubbles in stocks, real estate, and oil. We may have one in the bond market.

Sentiment seems to be at the "giving up" levels. Nobody is bullish anymore. The feeling is that it's all over.

It probably isn't.

I'm still long the market. Fortunately, I am outperforming the major indexes by a ways by being in non-financial stocks and mostly in the Nasdaq. Even with the new lows, we're still within the margin of a retest. But things do look gloomy.

Tonight as I type, Asian stocks are being pounded. Tokyo stocks near 26-yr lows.

This is where I want to whistle the tune to Monty Python's "Always look on the bright side of life." Lots to be said for that. I'm generally an optimist, and do believe things will get better. But right now we're all trudging through this valley and it doesn't feel good.

Back with lighter stuff tomorrow. This gloomy stuff is too, uh, gloomy. Keep it positive, Muck.