Market Getting Smoked!

• Whoa Nellie, the market is tanking.  Yesterday, we had a feel good bump but today we’re getting a feel bad thump.  We had an early “quote delay issue” and then Traders also pointed to comments from billionaire investor Wilbur Ross on Bloomberg Radio Friday, saying a "huge crash in commercial real estate" is beginning, as adding to the worries across the financial sector. Mr. Ross, the chairman of W.L. Ross & Co. LLC, said occupancy and rent rates are falling while the rate of return that potential investors are seeking is rising.
• So, yesterday is looking like a one-day wonder in this down trend. I thought maybe it was end of month stuff kicking in, but it all seems a bit larger than that.
• Inexact climate models:  Is the earth warming?  Is the earth cooling?  It all seems to be a guessing game with each side (alarmists vs. deniers) providing their quotes from science gurus far and wide, but the politicians want to take immediate action!  "There is a lot of room for improvement" in the models, says Mojib Latif, a climate scientist in Germany and co-author of a paper predicting the planet will cool for perhaps a decade before starting to warm again -- a long-term trend he attributes to greenhouse-gas emissions. "You need to know what you can believe and can't believe from the models."
• Hey, if you want to reduce CO2 it seems the best way is to build nuclear power plants and run cars on natural gas – until scientists figure something else out.
• Did you see that spending dropped .5% in September?  Wasn’t me. But with the cash for clunkers ending and a soft job market, folks are worried.  Hey, employment is just a laggggging indicator!

The Slide Continues

• The market continues to sell off this week. Kind of refreshing, in a way.  I think we need to reset before we can move higher.  I'm not expecting anything ominous, since I feel that the economy is recovering and we will see slow to moderate growth going forward. 
• Of course, I didn't see anything ominous in 2007, either.  Just being honest.  
• I mentioned yesterday that I had tried to upgrade my iPhone RSS Player to listen to podcasts.  It's still not working but seems as if it will be resolved very soon.  In the meantime, I've been using Mediafly.  Try it.  It's free.  I'm not sure if I like it more than RSS Player, but it has some other features that may keep it on my iPhone.
• NBA has started, and I'm in 2 fantasy basketball leagues.  Geez, can't help myself.  One is a total stats league, another is weekly head-to-head.  Should be interesting.
• Speaking of, the NBA has an app for the iPhone where you can listen to the audio streams of the games.  Similar to what MLB did with baseball.  Cool.  Just $9.99.
• Kind of interesting to watch the Health Care debate in Congress.  I have no idea what will come out, but many moderates have said that they won't support it.  Different polls say different things, but I haven't talked or emailed with anyone who likes the idea of a government public option. I know those folks are out there, but sometimes I wonder if the "excitement" about a public option is just a few people making a lot of noise.

Monday's Reversal and Distribution Randomosity

• The market had a nasty reversal yesterday. Opened up nicely and then just cratered.  IBD has the market under pressure and noted that we've now had 9 higher volume declines, calling it "worrisome."  IBD also tells investors to carefully mind their holdings.  (LOL).
• Well, the Washington Redskins also had a distribution day on Monday night, with another high volume loss. 
• Is Harry Reid gambling on a health care public option that allows states to opt out?  I think it would be funny if all 50 states opted out.  Hey, would it still be nationalized health care if everyone opted out?
• Perhaps the Washington Redskins need a public option. 
• I love RSS Player for the iPhone, and was looking forward to the new release out yesterday.  Unfortunately, it didn't install correctly.  The software writer has notified Apple of the problem.  But RSS Player has been my most used app, as I listen to lots of podcasts.  Frustrating! 
• Back to the work at hand...

 

Sunday Market Thoughts

• The market took a break this past week.  Is it more than a break?  We’re heading into month end, which should be a positive, but the market has had such a run and has seen a bunch of distribution days the last couple of weeks.  I remain 100% long, but I think we’ll see a correction soon.  Why remain long? I just don’t have a feeling for timing or severity the correction. I believe we’re out of the recession and that we’ll see slow to moderate growth in the coming year.
• How an insurance mandate may make people worse off.  Good column.  I like the phrase “mandate creep.”  You know it will happen.
• Invest like the best.
• Silicon Valley Office vacancies near 20%.
• US Empire in Decline.  "People have predicted the end of America in the past and been wrong," Ferguson concedes. "But let's face it: If you're trying to borrow $9 trillion to save your financial system...and already half your public debt held by foreigners, it's not really the conduct of rising empires, is it?"  I think he’s right, as folks expect more and more from the government instead of self-reliance.  But hoping he’s wrong.
• Summary:  Lots of negative news headlines.  Maybe that’s the best reason to stay bullish.
• From Mark Cuban, the DVR vs. Internet video.
• Speaking of, I powered through Stargate Universe this past week. Like it enough to keep recording it.  It has similar dark undertones to Battlestar Gallactica.  Another day in Fantasy Football where I play the last place team and they score like crazy. 
  Even though my team is scoring like crazy.  What a frustrating game.  LOL.

Sy Harding Abandoning Seasonal Strategy?

• Is Sy Harding (not pictured) abandoning his market timing seasonal strategy?  I think this is a pretty interesting column for what is supposed to be a non-emotional investing strategy. …although the remarkable performance of STS was achieved by strictly following its entry and exit rules, this time we are going to use our other strategy, our Market-Timing Strategy, currently neutral on the market, to determine when the STS re-entry will take place.
• Steve Jobs (not pictured, either) made $103.5 million in the market on Wednesday.  How’d you do?  (Hat tip to Crossing Wall Street).
• Monica Raymund from Lie to Me.  Hubba hubba.
• Not a good day in the market.  If you left an hour early, you missed a lot.  I remain 100% long at this point.
• The Lesson of State Health Care Reform.  Like participants in a national science fair, state governments have tested variants on most of the major components of the health-care reform plans currently being considered in Congress. The results have been dramatically increased premiums in the individual market, spiraling public health-care costs, and reduced access to care. In other words: The reforms have failed. 
• Black Thursday was 80-years ago!

DOW 10K: Easy Come, Easy Go

• Everyone was excited. At least for a little while.  It is amazing that we first hit 10K in 1999.  One would think the market has been unplugged for 10 years.  It’s been a roller-coaster of highs and lows.
• Pictured?  Dichen Lachman from Dollhouse.  Hubba hubba.
• Say, what was really in that balloon?  LOL:  “The 2009 Nobel Peace Prize ballots”  More good ones at the link!
• Something is wrong with Wall Street.
• Something is wrong with me.  Working way too much.  On a huge-dollar project, and as someone told me “You’re getting a lot of visibility.”  Better end up good, huh?  Otherwise, it can turn into one of those Brady Quinn – Derek Anderson fiascos.  Anyways, I haven’t given up on blogging or the desire to do so.  Honest.
• Bought a new wireless keyboard and mouse.  Overall?  Like it!  Less cables!  Sometimes, it seems as if the keyboard misses a keystroke or two.  Wait!  You think maybe that’s more attributable to my typing skills?
• I’m listening to Motley Crue, Saints of Los Angeles.
• SuperFreakonomics isn’t even on sale yet, and the attacks on our chapter about global warming are already underway.  That’s the funny thing about the emotionally-charged beliefs about global warming.  The alarmists are quick to attack. Read the link.  Maybe you’ll be surprised at what Steven Levitt really believes about global warming.
• State revenue falls most since 1963. U.S. state tax collections tumbled the most in almost half a century in the second quarter as the economic recession curbed levies on incomes and sales.
• Meanwhile, the debate continues on how much exactly health care will cost you.  Look, it’s going to cost more than what you currently pay.  There are over 40M people who currently do not have health care, will now be going to the doctor.  Increasing demand absent of increasing the supply of health care (doctors, nurses, medicine, facilities) will lead to increased costs.  The estimated additional costs are somewhere between an additional $800B (CBO number) and $2T (Joe Biden number).  And then government estimates are usually a bit short by some exponential factor.
• On tap for today?  Watching college football and drinking BEER!  Life is good.  Just saying.
• Hey, moved the USB dongle for the wireless keyboard to the front USB port, which is closer to the desk, and that seems to have improved my typing skills.  Woot!
• Hey, it is okay if we disagree politically, right?  Lets agree on football and beer, and let the rest fall by the wayside.
• Ending the blog entry with a little Ray Davies.  Cooler, calmer and more collective.  Or, maybe that should be reflective.  Bring on football and beer!

Saturday Randomosity

• The market had a great week.  There were a lot of grumblings last week after two weeks in a row of negative returns, only to bolt back up this week.  I’m still 100% in.  No reason to do anything else right now.
• Why Lady Ga Ga? I though the Saturday Night Live episode last weekend was pretty good.  So take this picture and “throw it to the ground!”  Nice butt shots on the Disco Stick performance.  LOL.
• Wow, interest rates are really low.  Under 5% now for a 30-year fixed rate.  It’s great if you’re not upside down on your house!  It may not last, as Bernanke said higher rates are coming with an improved outlook.  Have to act quickly on this, IMHO.
• Have you been following Mike Murphy’s goal of turning $2000 into $1M?  Hulbert with the details.
• I think it was cool that Ga Ga was in some skits, too.
• Working a lot lately.  Starting to grind me down.  Working today, but taking a break. I forgot how blogging is a little like therapy for me.  Blog more, Muck.
• Barack Obama wins the Nobel Peace Prize.  Now there’s a brain teaser.  Good commentary:  “Something doesn’t feel right.”
• Tax hikes to cover government workers’ pensions?  A taxpayer group found an apparent link between high public employee pension costs and tax hikes in a study of 17 cities in San Diego County.
• Tech stocks have had a great run, and next week the big earnings numbers start rolling in.  Intel on deck…
• Nobel Prize for best place to live?  Norway.  You’ve gotta be frakkin’ with me now.  Hey, sign me up for a summer vacation.  But live there year round?  Norway, the land of fjords, Vikings, vodka, and blonde hair, is now also the most desirable place to live, according to the United Nations. 
• Disco Stick.

Pre-season Rally!

The market rock and rolled again today. Amazing that we're seeing this after the quarter-end and early month 401k adds. We had two negative weeks in a row, and now when you think that we'd see some weakness, two nice days up.

Go figure. Screw historical patterns. Ride the trend.

Earnings season about to get under way, so maybe this is all pricing in some forward-looking optimism.

***

NBA pre-season games? WHAT? Wow, here we are!

I see Minnesota Twins beat the Detroit Tigers in the one-game playoff. Amazing that 162 games later, it all comes down to one game. Why even play the other 162? Heck, with extra-innings, too. Maybe they should have just played extra innings from the start and not waste all our time.

Work is very busy. I'm sad that I don't have much break time or lunch time to surf the web and keep up with my favorite blogs. Usually, I venture around and comment on stories and blogs, but really have been so under the gun at the Fun Factory that I don't have time to glance at the iPhone.

The other sad thing is lack of work outs and exercise. Yeeesh, gotta get back on that or else that Halloween candy will take a toll...

Moonshot Monday

Wow, I'm checking the market numbers over a veggie burrito. Nice way to start the week. Especially after we have had two negative weeks in a row.

Remaining long.

•••

I'm about ready to dump Tony Romo on my fantasy team. Good grief.

Slide Continues

Looks like the month-end and quarter-end rally was a bit overhyped and the tone of the market has changed. There doesn't seem to be much positive economic sentiment out there.

I remain long, but watching positions closely. Maybe the market makes a stand at the 50dma and this is just a pullback.

I think it does appear as if the economy is weakening, though. On the car sales numbers, it is obvious that the cash for clunkers program had a short term effect that accelerated sales, now the numbers will be bad for a while.

•••

Phew. Friday. Time flies when you're drowning in work. Nobody at my job is even taking lunch breaks these days.