Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Market Thoughts!

image $SPY - The stock market has been in correction mode the last couple of weeks, and where the heck have I been!  I am partially in cash and waiting for someone to ring a bell at the bottom of the correction.


But seriously, I have had a watch list ready for the last few weeks with stocks I have been wanting to buy.  I may have missed a few at yesterday’s lows.  But I do think that the bull market is still on.  I started adding to some positions Thursday and Friday, and plan to continue here and there.  I would love to see a big gap down early in the morning and a reversal through the day.

Here are a few bullet points.

  • The Federal Reserve:  Tapering ends soon and the Fed flooding the country with cash ends! I believe this has made the rich richer, going into stocks and real estate.  Of course, this has also helped the economy as a whole.  Today, a Fed Head said that the Fed would be willing to revisit Quantitative Easing if the economic numbers stalled out.  “Data Dependent” is the new phrase that pays.
  • Ebola:  We don’t know how bad that is or will be down the road.  It is scary.  I think this impacts travel stocks.  So things like airlines, cruise ships, and travel related companies are going to struggle.  Folks are buying out Hazmat suits!  Every sneeze seems to halt an airline.  With a long incubation period, this could continue to keep folks scared for a while.
  • Russia:  The Ukraine crisis is on Page 2 these days, but the impacts from Russian mischief are impacting Europe and world economies.  Heck, i remember early on when I tried to play Russian stocks for a bounce and hoped there would be a quick resolution.  It drags on and on.  I’m out of those stocks, by the way.
  • Europe:  See above.  Germany is tanking, for goodness sakes.
  • Goofy Stocks:  I’m looking at you, $GPRO and $MBLY.  But there are also biotechs and other companies that either have IPO or ramped up without much if any earnings.
  • Oil:  Falling oil prices are a positive impact on all of us.  The less we spend on gasoline, the more money we have to spend on other things.  (Like hazmat suits).  The oil boom in the US is having a huge impact on world oil markets.  Combine that with declining demand due to slowing world economies, and prices have been falling.
  • US Election:  Every four years, there seems to be a stock market correction and then a powerful rally into the next year, that coincides with the US mid-term election.  The reasons for the correction differ from cycle to cycle, but it seems to happen no matter what.

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